MJW155 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 could a met familiar with Orlando, FL WX give me some insight for friday afternoon regarding a golf tournament a friend of mine is playing in? thanks Forecast is for 40% chance of showers. I wouldn't worry about it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like a good chance of some showers and t-storms for Friday.. SPC has Central and South Florida pegged for a chance for some strong Storms but the outlook doesn't sound to bullish. We could use the rain though.. ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL... MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH WEAK LAPSE RATES. DIABATIC WARMING WILL DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SRN FL RESULTING IN MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO WLY AND WEAKEN IN WARM SECTOR AS NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECT NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAMPLIFYING IMPULSE...MAINTAINING 40-50 KT WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS SRN FL. STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING WILL SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA WITH TIME...BUT WEAK CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanelonny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hey all. I'm new to this board. Wonder what happened to easternwx. I live in S. Fl. Wondering if any new Artic outbreaks are coming this way. Considering AO is going postive I would figure at least an Artic outbreak is over for down here. Suppose to get cooler for a day this weekend. More progressive pattern. Cooler then warm. Nice being here and look forward to reading all the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Last Nights 0Z GFS seems interesting as it brings a intensifying system across Northern Florida late Tuesday into Wed. It will be interesting to see what kind of prospects for some active storms if any we get from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Starting to think Tuesday Night into Wed might bring some decent storms to Florida, at least I am hoping . This afternoons Tampa AFD highlights the prospect of higher rain chances. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE SOLUTION TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF. LATEST GFS 12Z RUN HAS COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF BRINGING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES...60 PERCENT...ACROSS LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED FURTHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's looking like another rain event versus a severe weather one. Things could change though. Speaking of rain, with another 1.15 in the bucket Friday am up to 4.26 for January. That's more rain then I had from late September through the end of 010. Looks like this next system will add more to that. Best thing is the fire danger is much lower now. We were in the 700 plus range. Now down to 2 to 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's looking like another rain event versus a severe weather one. Things could change though. Speaking of rain, with another 1.15 in the bucket Friday am up to 4.26 for January. That's more rain then I had from late September through the end of 010. Looks like this next system will add more to that. Best thing is the fire danger is much lower now. We were in the 700 plus range. Now down to 2 to 300. Your right, unless things change it does look like just a rain event and we will have to wait for another system for some good T-storms!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Your right, unless things change it does look like just a rain event and we will have to wait for another system for some good T-storms!! Looks like things are changing again. Jville now saying the southern tier of counties could see some severe weather and Tampa's discussion alluded to the same although CWA wide for Tampa. This from Jville. Important note...this is the time of year when patterns like this can yield sig overnight tornado events in northern/ctrl Florida...will need to keep eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like things are changing again. Jville now saying the southern tier of counties could see some severe weather and Tampa's discussion alluded to the same although CWA wide for Tampa. This from Jville. Important note...this is the time of year when patterns like this can yield sig overnight tornado events in northern/ctrl Florida...will need to keep eye on this. Yea, things appear to be looking up for Tuesdays event. Here is the Tampa discussion and it sounds more bullish about the severe chances then yesterday.. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE STAGE LOOKS SET FOR A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THERE WILL BE A VERY HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY INTO THE MID 60S. PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES OVER THE AREA ARE 2SD ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITH A DEEP AND STRONG 500 MB LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THE WIND FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS LATE TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SPEED SHEAR...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE AS WELL. THE 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT. SO THIS EVENT APPEARS PRIMED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA...AND SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE DAY. TORNADO...STRAIGHT LINE WIND...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL THREATS. WITH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-13C AT 500 MB...LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH...AND THIS INVERSION COULD LIMIT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Todays SPC forecast discussion highlights the fact that Florida stands a chance of getting the first real severe threat of the winter season. Getting a bit excited, I hope the trend continues!!! ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL AND SRN GA... ...FLORIDA/SRN GA/FAR SRN SC... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD APPROACHING CNTRL FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE DAY WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES TOWARD CNTRL FL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL MOISTEN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ETA-KF CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL FL BY LATE AFTERNOON INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...DEFINITELY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ON WHETHER STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. IF THE STORMS TEND BE LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SCENARIO DEFINITELY LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From the MLB AFD: STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR / LOW LVL HELICITY / FAVORABLE LOW TRACK AND TIME OF DAY (NIGHT) WITH LOWER LCLS ALL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG AND VIOLENT TORNADOES. From the latest HWO: STRONG WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES. I can't say I've ever seen such strong wording for a severe weather threat in FL... I will be stocking up on batteries for my weather radio though, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VORT MAX NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO BASE OF MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING THE NWRN GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN STATES OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. ...FL... WEAK SURFACE LOW ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING...AND FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OFF THE GA COAST LATE TUESDAY AS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE GULF STREAM. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS THROUGH SRN FL WITH LOW 60S MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG OVER SRN FL AND BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EWD...LIKELY REACHING FL BY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH APPROACHES...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ..DIAL.. 01/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think it was last year about this time where we had a similar set up. Jville was almost calling it a slam dunk for severe weather. Marion county shut down early in the day . Schools and business's closed early in anticipation of the severe event. Nothing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think it was last year about this time where we had a similar set up. Jville was almost calling it a slam dunk for severe weather. Marion county shut down early in the day . Schools and business's closed early in anticipation of the severe event. Nothing happened. That's the rub about these types of events. For an outbreak (numerous TORs over a fairly decent area), you really need to have ALL the parameters (instability, low level helicity/shear, and synoptic scale forced ascent) come into place together, at the right time, which doesn't occur all that often. However, as I've also learned in my 17th year working down here (MLB), given the extent of manufactured, mobile, and RV homes down here, it only takes one well-aimed, poorly-timed (e.g. 1 AM to 6 AM) supercell, or line/cluster of storms to produce a singular significant event. In any case, I'll be at the office as part of the team working the event for the 10 ECFL counties. Here's hoping as little as possible comes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's the rub about these types of events. For an outbreak (numerous TORs over a fairly decent area), you really need to have ALL the parameters (instability, low level helicity/shear, and synoptic scale forced ascent) come into place together, at the right time, which doesn't occur all that often. However, as I've also learned in my 17th year working down here (MLB), given the extent of manufactured, mobile, and RV homes down here, it only takes one well-aimed, poorly-timed (e.g. 1 AM to 6 AM) supercell, or line/cluster of storms to produce a singular significant event. In any case, I'll be at the office as part of the team working the event for the 10 ECFL counties. Here's hoping as little as possible comes of it. 2007 comes to mind. That supercell came through about 2AM through northern Lake County. 19 people died from Lady Lake to Paisly. Every fatality was from a mobile home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's the rub about these types of events. For an outbreak (numerous TORs over a fairly decent area), you really need to have ALL the parameters (instability, low level helicity/shear, and synoptic scale forced ascent) come into place together, at the right time, which doesn't occur all that often. However, as I've also learned in my 17th year working down here (MLB), given the extent of manufactured, mobile, and RV homes down here, it only takes one well-aimed, poorly-timed (e.g. 1 AM to 6 AM) supercell, or line/cluster of storms to produce a singular significant event. In any case, I'll be at the office as part of the team working the event for the 10 ECFL counties. Here's hoping as little as possible comes of it. Did you write the afternoon AFD? As others have mentioned the wording in the discusion is something I have rarely seen outside of a few severe weather events in Central Fla. All the following hazards will be in play...damaging downburst winds...large hail...torrential downpours and isolated tornadoes. The environment may favorable a couple strong "long track" tornadoes. With this said a weather watch of some kind seems probable by early evening if not sooner. Widespread decent rains will be possible with this storm system with first guess amounts averaging around an inch with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches over much of the area. If you were/are a betting man what would be the odds of at least one F2 or greater tornado across the MLB forecast area tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As others have said, the wording is getting stronger for our severe threat on Tuesday and Tue afternoon. The Tampa AFD highlights what other forecast offices have been saying as well as mentioning the threat for heavy rain, 2-3 inches possible for the Tampa region. It will be an interesting read tomorrow on the local AFD and to see if the SPC raises the severe threat for Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's the rub about these types of events. For an outbreak (numerous TORs over a fairly decent area), you really need to have ALL the parameters (instability, low level helicity/shear, and synoptic scale forced ascent) come into place together, at the right time, which doesn't occur all that often. However, as I've also learned in my 17th year working down here (MLB), given the extent of manufactured, mobile, and RV homes down here, it only takes one well-aimed, poorly-timed (e.g. 1 AM to 6 AM) supercell, or line/cluster of storms to produce a singular significant event. In any case, I'll be at the office as part of the team working the event for the 10 ECFL counties. Here's hoping as little as possible comes of it. Nice to know we have a pro met that can help the Florida weather weenies out. Keep us posted on your thoughts if you get a chance!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanelonny Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice to know we have a pro met that can help the Florida weather weenies out. Keep us posted on your thoughts if you get a chance!!! Need the rain. Not the severe weather. I doubt any severe weather here in Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood. Farther north could see some. Never pans out this far south. Hopefully everyone gets some needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Things look on track for some severe weather later today. It does look like an interesting Day/night ahead for Florida. ...FL... ASIDE FROM ABOVE-MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NRN PART OF THE STATE...A SECONDARY WARM FRONT --CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR SRN PENINSULA-- DELINEATES THE NRN EXTENSION OF A MORE FULLY MODIFIED AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MARK THE NRN EXTENT OF MORE ROBUST SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO DISTINCT TSTM REGIMES DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE DOMINANT AND MOST PROBABLE REGIME WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO EWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA BY 26/12Z. BASED ON THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SETS...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR /QLCS/ WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. A MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SECOND REGIME MAY BECOME MANIFEST LATER TODAY ALONG A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMING OVER THE PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATE A WEAKLY CAPPED...MODESTLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. MOREOVER...THE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DUE TO HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SECOND SCENARIO...THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Did you write the afternoon AFD? As others have mentioned the wording in the discusion is something I have rarely seen outside of a few severe weather events in Central Fla. All the following hazards will be in play...damaging downburst winds...large hail...torrential downpours and isolated tornadoes. The environment may favorable a couple strong "long track" tornadoes. With this said a weather watch of some kind seems probable by early evening if not sooner. Widespread decent rains will be possible with this storm system with first guess amounts averaging around an inch with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches over much of the area. If you were/are a betting man what would be the odds of at least one F2 or greater tornado across the MLB forecast area tomorrow? I was on swings (2-11P) all this week, so that was the morning (7A-4P) that put out that AFD. I was one of the two primary radar/warning mets yesterday. It was pretty wild - about 2 hours in, 0-1KM helicity started to peak, and not only did the pre-squall line cellular convection start to rotate, but the squall line itself started to take on a LEWP (line-echo wave pattern) where the ref structure takes on an alternating "bulge/notch" appearance, with embedded rotational couplets in both the bvel/SRM. Surprised we didn't get more damage than is currently being reported. On the other hand, the couplets weren't persistently strong, so one would expect damage tracks/areas to be short and sporadic/localized. Still, it was the "best" larger scale event we've had to work in about 4 years (since the '07 Lake Mack tornado on Ground Hog Day). In hindsight, I don't know if I would have made (or, for that matter, would ever make one here in Florida during the dry season) a call for an F2 hose, as those are rare beasts indeed. This was about as good of a setup as you'll ever get during a Nina/neutral...happens a bit more often during a strong Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I was on swings (2-11P) all this week, so that was the morning (7A-4P) that put out that AFD. I was one of the two primary radar/warning mets yesterday. It was pretty wild - about 2 hours in, 0-1KM helicity started to peak, and not only did the pre-squall line cellular convection start to rotate, but the squall line itself started to take on a LEWP (line-echo wave pattern) where the ref structure takes on an alternating "bulge/notch" appearance, with embedded rotational couplets in both the bvel/SRM. Surprised we didn't get more damage than is currently being reported. On the other hand, the couplets weren't persistently strong, so one would expect damage tracks/areas to be short and sporadic/localized. Still, it was the "best" larger scale event we've had to work in about 4 years (since the '07 Lake Mack tornado on Ground Hog Day). In hindsight, I don't know if I would have made (or, for that matter, would ever make one here in Florida during the dry season) a call for an F2 hose, as those are rare beasts indeed. This was about as good of a setup as you'll ever get during a Nina/neutral...happens a bit more often during a strong Nino. Thanks for the response. You guys at MLB did a great job yesterday. There was plenty of warning for the incoming storms. An interesting event to say the least. Not sure I remember a Nina event like this in my 10+ years in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 While I missed all the wild weather here in Northern Polk County, I did pick up some much needed rain. 1.43 inches in the old rain bucket!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It felt nice out today with the Temperature getting back into the 70's again. I t looks like nice weather for the next few days and the GFS seems to want to stall the next front across Florida later in the Week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Foggy start to the day today and looks like it shut down parts of I-75 this morning.. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 600 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 .UPDATE...DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IS NOW PRESENT IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PARTS OF I-75 ARE CLOSED DUE TO FOG AND SMOKE. HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTHWARD THROUGH LEE COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can't wait for Tues-Wed. Low 80's for highs and mid 60's for lows. Perfect weather. Also at same time as blizzard up north. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can't wait for Tues-Wed. Low 80's for highs and mid 60's for lows. Perfect weather. Also at same time as blizzard up north. LOL. I hear you on that and if the GFS is correct no real cold air on the way anytime soon. I have been giving my brother in Chicago some hell about his impending blizzard while we bask in the sunshine and warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 I hear you on that and if the GFS is correct no real cold air on the way anytime soon. I have been giving my brother in Chicago some hell about his impending blizzard while we bask in the sunshine and warmth. The other day I wrote on Facebook that it's hard enjoying myself at the beach when everyone up north is complaining about the snow. Of course; I didn't even go to the beach, but they don't know that, lol. It's also funny to hear them complain about the heat when it's been 90+ every day for 3 months by the time they get their first heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The other day I wrote on Facebook that it's hard enjoying myself at the beach when everyone up north is complaining about the snow. Of course; I didn't even go to the beach, but they don't know that, lol. It's also funny to hear them complain about the heat when it's been 90+ every day for 3 months by the time they get their first heat wave. LOL.. Your right. They can't handle much more then 3 or 4 days of 90+ temps before they start complaining.I have been pimping my family and friends who live up North on Facebook also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the SPC offers a glimmer of hope for some decent T-storms for me in Central Florida on Wed. I am not really getting to excited about it yet. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...FLORIDA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SERN STATES. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL FL AT 21Z ON WEDNESDAY SHOW LOWER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND VEERED WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT COULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION MAY KEEP A PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT FROM DEVELOPING. ..BROYLES.. 01/31/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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