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Florida Fall/Winter Weather

MJW155

By MJW155,
in Southeastern States

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MJW155

MJW155

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LOL... yea when I first moved down here I used to laugh at the locals all dressed up like it was Alaska but the longer you live down here, you will find in time you will do the same thing.:snowman:

I doubt it. This will be my 3rd winter down here. The cold never bothered me, even up north. I rarely wore a jacket unless I was going to be outside for more that 10 minutes or if it was rainy/snowy. But if I was going to my house to my car to work, I didn't use a jacket even if it was 10 degrees. I would have a sweater or sweatshirt on but that's about it.

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ocala

ocala

Posted
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meh, you have three seasons up there in ocala land. No love for the southern crew who look forward to some temps that almost actually count as cold? :(

Yeah, I'm a wimp when it comes to cold weather. Maybe I should move back to south Florida.

It's weird because I moved here from Cleveland in 88 and the cold never bothered me. For what ever reason though the last few years it has. Oh well only 4 more months to go.:(

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Akeem the African Dream

Akeem the African Dream

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Looks like the first freeze of the season for the Lakeland area tomorrow night and/or Tuesday Night.:snowman:

Going to be an interesting night, I think we are going to set up for a slightly better freezing conditions Tuesday night but nevertheless some areas will get to the freezing mark tonight. MLB NWS is going for 32 at MCO tonight. I don't think we get to freezing tonight but I think we at least make a run at the record and end up somewhere between 34-36 in the metro. Record is 34 at MCO for tonight.

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Srain

Srain

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HPC:

12Z MODELS:

DETERMINISTIC 12Z/06 GUIDANCE IS STILL ON TRACK IN MOVING A

WEAKENING STORM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THU-SAT....AND

WITH DEVELOPING A NEW MAJOR ERN CONUS STORM NEXT WEEKEND. BY SUN

DAY 6...THE GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS

WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE SLOW SIDE. ECMWF WAS FARTHER N WITH THE

PRIMARY LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND

NOT QUITE AS FAR E AS THE GFS WITH THE SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPING

DAY 6 VICINITY OF VA/NC. I WILL NUDGE THE DAY 6 FINAL LOW POSITION

JUST A TAD TO THE E OVER KY. THIS SYS WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER

PRODUCER AS SYNOPTIC HEAVY SNOWFALL NEXT WEEKEND IN THE GREAT

LAKES LAKES REGION GIVES WAY TO MORE EFFECT SN BY DAY 7. FARTHER

S...SN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SE NEW

ENG BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING BACK TO SN OVER THE

APPALACHIANS/NY/INTERIOR NEW ENG AS THE SYS MOVES FROM THE OH VLY

INTO NY STATE. WHILE SOME HEAVY SN IS EXPECTED TO THE LEFT OF THE

STORM TRACK...PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT WILL BE THE DANGEROUS

WIND CHILLS THAT WILL HOWL IN ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS E OF THE MS

RIVER BEHIND THE STORM. FURTHERMORE THERE IS A RISK OF SOME NEAR

RECORD LOW TEMPS DAMAGING CITRUS CROPS IN FL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

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What sort of setup is needed for gulf effect snow?

God has to be smiling.

GES requires some strong WNW/W winds, coupled with a good bit of moisture in the atmosphere, and plenty of cold before it, with a cold 850 and 500 mb in front and trailing. When GES happens, we're usually on the far back edge of a deep cutting Low with a weak, cool High building from the plains into the Gulf/Alabama region, and then its warm within 36 hours.

Just my observations, since it happens so rarely - just based on what I've watched on a few occasions over the years (no science to support this).

BTW - Looks like (if you take the 18Z GFS with any seriousness) we'll be warming for Christmas. That 18Z run (of the GFS) in itself indicates snow from the Gulf! (since it's the GFS at 360, after all).

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Jaguars

Jaguars

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Posted

God has to be smiling.

GES requires some strong WNW/W winds, coupled with a good bit of moisture in the atmosphere, and plenty of cold before it, with a cold 850 and 500 mb in front and trailing. When GES happens, we're usually on the far back edge of a deep cutting Low with a weak, cool High building from the plains into the Gulf/Alabama region, and then its warm within 36 hours.

Just my observations, since it happens so rarely - just based on what I've watched on a few occasions over the years (no science to support this).

BTW - Looks like (if you take the 18Z GFS with any seriousness) we'll be warming for Christmas. That 18Z run (of the GFS) in itself indicates snow from the Gulf! (since it's the GFS at 360, after all).

Looks like the 0z GFS follow suit in the longer term trying to make the pattern more zonal. But with the NAO still pretty solid negative along with AO possibly heading in the same direction this may be an attempt to move back towards climatology. I'll wait for the 12z tomorrow to see, 12z always more reliable for longer term IMO.

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted

Jax throws the 5 letter S word in their AM AFD

WEDNESDAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER

LEVEL TROF WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WILL

MAKE FOR A VERY COLD DAY WITHOUT FULL INSOLATION...FOR NOW HAVE GONE

WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A PORTION OF

THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S

ACRS THE REGION. MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER

LEVELS AND NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW POCKETS OF

ISOLD SLEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...STILL A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE

EVENT...IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL.

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Calderon

Calderon

Posted
Posted

The temps in the Jacksonville, namely along the St. Johns, didn't bottom out nearly as far as thought. NAS JAX just sat at 32, which means locations on the east side of the river and within a mile of it were in the mid 30s. The hard freeze was avoided, but another chance tonight.

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