toad strangler Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 I do understand what you mean but I am greedy. I do admit some cooler weather around x-mas is nice. It does feel a little strange hanging x-mas lights outside if it's 80 + but after that I could handle 11 months of heat and storms. Like you said things can start happening in May and many years May is a transition month and the storms can start cranking or a trough gets stuck across the state bringing the storms.Oh well, I will rough it for a couple more months. rough it out .... yeah me too I think MJW is the most southern member of the FL crew? I know that once you get south of WPB it is a different world and true SF is a jungle come the wet season. They do not feel the "brunt" of the cool weather has most of us do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 1, 2011 Share Posted March 1, 2011 rough it out .... yeah me too I think MJW is the most southern member of the FL crew? I know that once you get south of WPB it is a different world and true SF is a jungle come the wet season. They do not feel the "brunt" of the cool weather has most of us do. Yes, I think MJW is the southern most member here. MJW does miss the brunt of the brutal winter conditions we face in Central and North Florida. On another note, I had a nice band of Showers come through this morning and hoping to get some heating today out ahead of the front that might help spark a t-storm or two this Afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted March 1, 2011 Author Share Posted March 1, 2011 Yes, I think MJW is the southern most member here. MJW does miss the brunt of the brutal winter conditions we face in Central and North Florida. On another note, I had a nice band of Showers come through this morning and hoping to get some heating today out ahead of the front that might help spark a t-storm or two this Afternoon. Pretty crazy if I'm the southernmost member on the board. LOL. Lake Okeechobee protects SE Florida big time. I don't think I've had temps below 35 this year at all and maybe 5x below 50. It's been a great winter actually. Usually upper 70's or low '80's every day w/ lows in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Pretty crazy if I'm the southernmost member on the board. LOL. Lake Okeechobee protects SE Florida big time. I don't think I've had temps below 35 this year at all and maybe 5x below 50. It's been a great winter actually. Usually upper 70's or low '80's every day w/ lows in the 60's. Ah-Hhheemm... Well, at least of the more "active" posters, I guess it would go to you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Ah-Hhheemm... Well, at least of the more "active" posters, I guess it would go to you... Haha, I knew there had to be someone south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Ah-Hhheemm... Well, at least of the more "active" posters, I guess it would go to you... Sorry to forget about you Ice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 February was a really dry month here in Lakeland; only bringing .55 inches of rain for the month, compared to 2.55 being the normal. I have a feeling the remaining months of the dry season will be sparking quite a few wildfires!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 February was a really dry month here in Lakeland; only bringing .55 inches of rain for the month, compared to 2.55 being the normal. I have a feeling the remaining months of the dry season will be sparking quite a few wildfires!! Yeah... Enough so that you might want to change your name from flwxwatcher45 to flFIREwatcher9000! It's going to be a pretty bad season... I don't think it will be as bad as 1998... but it might get close considering a fire has already closed down portions of I-95. A fire also threatened homes in Manatee County (I grew up in Sarasota).... It looks like you will get at least a little bit of rain with this system moving through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yeah... Enough so that you might want to change your name from flwxwatcher45 to flFIREwatcher9000! It's going to be a pretty bad season... I don't think it will be as bad as 1998... but it might get close considering a fire has already closed down portions of I-95. A fire also threatened homes in Manatee County (I grew up in Sarasota).... It looks like you will get at least a little bit of rain with this system moving through Sunday. Yes, I saw that 16,000 acre brush fire in Brevard that closed I-95 and we have had a few small fires in Polk county so far. It's been really windy the last few days and what worries me is a big fire will get going during windy conditions this spring. I am hoping for any rain we can get, so I will be watching the chances this week-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 We have been very fortunate with the rain so far this year. Ended Feb with 2.69 and started out March with almost an inch from this last system. The KBDI below about says it all. The southern third of Fla is very dry. Brevard and Volusia aren't that bad so I am surprised at what's going on over there. Speaking of that fire the strong ESE winds today are bringing the smell over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 We have been very fortunate with the rain so far this year. Ended Feb with 2.69 and started out March with almost an inch from this last system. The KBDI below about says it all. The southern third of Fla is very dry. Brevard and Volusia aren't that bad so I am surprised at what's going on over there. Speaking of that fire the strong ESE winds today are bringing the smell over this way. Wow.. big difference in our rain totals for Feb and for March. I have .20 for March so far. It won't be long until the drier conditions work it's way up the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 February was a really dry month here in Lakeland; only bringing .55 inches of rain for the month, compared to 2.55 being the normal. I have a feeling the remaining months of the dry season will be sparking quite a few wildfires!! It has been incredibly dry by me and not to beat a dead horse but if the wet season started tomorrow it would be a day too late! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 It has been incredibly dry by me and not to beat a dead horse but if the wet season started tomorrow it would be a day too late! Yes, the South half of the state has started to dry out. Hopefully the wildfire season won't be all that bad but I have a feeling once we get into April, the fires will start flaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Per SPC at least some chance of some stronger T-storms on Sunday . ...ERN SEABOARD FROM SE VA SWD TO NRN/CNTRL FL... BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COVER MOST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND ERN GULF COASTAL REGION FROM PA SWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE AT 12Z SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE COINCIDENTAL WITH A COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM NRN/CNTRL FL NWD INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAINS OF GA...SC...NC AND SE VA WILL MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY OWING 12-18 HOURS OF WRN ATLANTIC/ERN GULF OF MEXICO ONSHORE FLOW /PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES/. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A DEEP MOIST TROPOSPHERE WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG MLCAPE...LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT MORNING BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EWD TOWARD THE COAST AND INTO NRN/CNTRL FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR SITUATION WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /BRIEF TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER PCPN SHIELD. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS ERN NC/SE VA NEAR THE TRACK OF A WEAK SFC LOW AND ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL WHERE COMPARATIVELY MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE BY EVENING AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This afternoons Tampa AFD sounds promising for the rain chances and chances for T-storms on Sunday. The severe chance isn't very high but I will take a decent boomer this time of the year. BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN NORTH GEORGIA. BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...AND 700 MB OMEGA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS STRONG AS WELL...SO COMBINING THE FORCING WITH THE DEEP WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. INCLUDED SCATTERED STORMS EVERYWHERE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT. AS FOR SEVERE...WIND FIELDS SHOW 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT 30-40KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRIMARILY WITH DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SPC SHOWS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AND THIS IS REASONABLE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Melbourne not too excited for this event. From this afternoons discussion. THE H30-H20 JET STREAK FEEDING THE STORM SYSTEM HAS A SSW-NNE ORIENTATION...INDICATIVE A RAPIDLY LIFTING SYSTEM. THE CENTERS OF SUCH STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO "OUTRUN" THE SRN EXTENSION OF THEIR TRAILING TROFS...THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE FL PENINSULA. IT APPEARS THIS ONE WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. WHILE BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LIFTING JET...THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION AND STRONG LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE TROF WILL LIMIT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HIGH LVLS OF INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP. SRN EXTENSION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER THE NW GOMEX SUGGESTS LKLY POPS AREAWIDE SUN. TIMING OF THE FROPA WOULD PUT BKN-OVC SKIES OVER THEN NRN CWA BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING AND IMPEDE TSRA FORMATION FROM ORLANDO-CAPE CANAVERAL NWD...THOUGH MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW ISOLD STORMS TO DVLP. TO THE S...WARMER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LESS INITIAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW SCT TSRAS TO DVLP BY EARLY AFTN. GENERAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I have had a healthy shot of rain in the last three hours. Nice training of light to moderate precip. Puddles abound and it feels good on the feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just got into Spring Hill, FL earlier. Had a bit of rain earlier around 8-10 PM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Well that was pretty lame. Next front scheduled for the Thurs/Fri time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Well that was pretty lame. Next front scheduled for the Thurs/Fri time frame. Yes, I am looking at radar and things have just fallen apart. Not one drop of rain for me in Lakeland. The sun is out and maybe that will help create enough instability to fire things up again one the front approaches. The best dynamics are pulling away though, so not getting my hopes up. Like you said ,maybe the system Thursday will offer us a better chance of some decent rain/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 We got a bit of light rain this morning here, but nothing much. Looks like Brooksville ended up receiving 0.07" of rain. Overall, this was a bit of a fail, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 We got a bit of light rain this morning here, but nothing much. Looks like Brooksville ended up receiving 0.07" of rain. Overall, this was a bit of a fail, I think. Total fail for me with this system as I got the big goose for precip. Hoping for some good rain with Thursdays system. This little blurb from the Melbourne AFD says it all. MORE SIGNIFICANT AND TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT OCCURS BEHIND THESE FRONTS...AS WE HEAD INTO OUR PEAK FIRE WEATHER SEASON. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It was absolutely gorgeous outside today! The cold front brought in some awesome cooler air and the breeze felt nice! This might be the first time I've ever been in Florida in which it actually felt comfortable outside (note in the past I've always been here in June-August). Down to 49 now and should dip into the mid-40s by dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It was absolutely gorgeous outside today! The cold front brought in some awesome cooler air and the breeze felt nice! This might be the first time I've ever been in Florida in which it actually felt comfortable outside (note in the past I've always been here in June-August). Down to 49 now and should dip into the mid-40s by dawn. Back to around 80 today and looks like next rain chance is Thursday, with another shot of some cooler weather behind that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Back to around 80 today and looks like next rain chance is Thursday, with another shot of some cooler weather behind that system. Little warm during the day today, but I went to Pine Island and Bayport at sunset and it was very comfortable. Made for a nice picnic. Looks like some interesting weather Thursday before I head back to North Carolina on Friday. I have to do some outdoor work tomorrow in the yard and it looks a bit warm, but oh well. Could even see some isolated thunderstorms, but hopefully I'll be done by the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Little warm during the day today, but I went to Pine Island and Bayport at sunset and it was very comfortable. Made for a nice picnic. Looks like some interesting weather Thursday before I head back to North Carolina on Friday. I have to do some outdoor work tomorrow in the yard and it looks a bit warm, but oh well. Could even see some isolated thunderstorms, but hopefully I'll be done by the afternoon. Not getting my hopes up for any Thunderstorms with this system. It looks like most of the action will be in North Florida. That being said I hope this system at least brings some decent rain, anything will help as we get deeper into the wildfire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Looks like the added dynamics associated with the upper-level trough have combined with the sea breeze to allow for some N-S oriented thunderstorms along the center of the peninsula. If it weren't for the squall line in the panhandle, it would look more like early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Looks like the added dynamics associated with the upper-level trough have combined with the sea breeze to allow for some N-S oriented thunderstorms along the center of the peninsula. If it weren't for the squall line in the panhandle, it would look more like early summer. Yep.. I had a decent sea breeze T-storm here in Lakeland a short time ago, a little preview of summer. The squall line in the panhandle is making steady progress so hopefully overnight into tomorrow morning some decent rains and storms will arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I am in Orlando at a conference tonight and we had a decent T storm at about 8PM or so. I just noticed that the main line is nudging its way into the Orlando area now at 10:20 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Some decent rains from this system. I had a total of 1.70 of much needed rain. I was out walking last night and the Gust front out ahead of the first line of showers and storms was interesting as things where blowing around and it really cooled off for a short time. Looks like a long stretch of drier weather on tap after a couple chilly days and nights for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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