SmokeEater Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 PDS out for Memphis and Little Rock, tornado probs 80/70. DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS AR. HERE...AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH A 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND 40-50 KT LLJ...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE OR MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIAL STRONG TO VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACKED...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 That boundary paralleling I-70 in EC MO and W ILL left over from previous convection looks worrisome to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Lots of clearing in IL, strong southerly flow at the surface, 500 mb jet in position too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 PDS out for Memphis and Little Rock, tornado probs 80/70. DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS AR. HERE...AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH A 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND 40-50 KT LLJ...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE OR MULTIPLE FAST-MOVING BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIAL STRONG TO VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACKED...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. There aren't enough to describe how I'm feeling about severe weather anymore. This severe season can't end fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 DTX Update on Severe Potential. NOW WE NEED TO FOCUS ON THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND TRENDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING INTO THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG AND MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. EXCELLENT WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS...0-0.5 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...SO THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES IS THERE CENTERED AROUND 00Z. INSTABILITY AS ALWAYS...IS THE KEY...AND THE 12Z NAM IS SUGGESTING 0-1 KM CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500-800 J/KG. WOULD PREFER TO SEE CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS. ALSO...THE SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW COMING OFF COOL WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO BE A HINDERANCE...STABILIZING INFLUENCE. BOTTOM- LINE...LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF EIGHT MILE STAND A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO...WITH BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEING 21-03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Looks like the couplet went just east of Sedalia Maybe BARELY east of the center of the town. But people on the southeast side of town probably got a direct hit, if my radar eyes aren't deceiving me. Like maybe the "Bothwell Regional Health Center"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Nice line with some cells popping out ahead in eastern IL, although nothing warned there at this time. Warned now. Should be moving in in about 20-30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 NE Ark looks prime for ugly tornadoes. Another feature of these progressive closed lows conducive to large outbreaks is the orientation of the height falls aloft, warm sector shape, and wind fields which typically results in initiation outward away from the core and a pretty "clean" warm sector air mass unperturbed by convective blow off--enhancing warm sector inflow for a greater time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 81/72 at BLV and 81/75 and SAR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Warned now. Should be moving in in about 20-30 mins. Looks like most of the stuff has stayed west and north of me for now. Sun coming and going and the clouds stream by. I know ChicagoWX had posted a few days ago about the lack of rain. It looks like LAF should definitely make up that amount.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 .DISCUSSION... /1144 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/ WRITING THE AFD EARLY TODAY...MAY NOT GET ANOTHER CHANCE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER. LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER JUST NORTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. DRY LINE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI NOW...AND HAS ALREADY GONE THROUGH JOPLIN. WITH STORMS ALREADY FIRING ALONG AND EVEN AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SPC HAS EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK AREA BACK INTO THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA...AND IT NOW ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWFA. MODERATE RISK NOW STRETCHES FROM COLUMBIA UP TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF QUINCY WITH SLIGHT BEHIND THAT. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS ALREADY SHOWING MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND THE RUC IS FORECASTING THIS AMOUNT T INCREASE TO OVER 3000 J/KG BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS AS WELL...SO SUPERCELLS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE OBS AND RADAR ARE SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ALMOST DIRECTLY ON THE I-44 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE METRO AREA...AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD ADD ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL VORTICITY TO THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT. LONG TRACK AND VIOLENT TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70 MPH ARE LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 There is that convective outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm not quite sure why its been running slow but some people have been working on it lately to get the problem fixed. Were about to SPI, heading to Nashville, IL. ok if your heading down 55, it might would be best if you got off 55 at rte 4, just follow hwy 4 down to I-64 instead of making the loop around 255 down to i-64.. it'll save you about 30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 this cell looks like it will be tor warned soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1249 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTH OF SMITHTON...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEDALIA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Looks like most of the stuff has stayed west and north of me for now. Sun coming and going and the clouds stream by. I know ChicagoWX had posted a few days ago about the lack of rain. It looks like LAF should definitely make up that amount.. Looks like the boundary from earlier storms is sitting in northern Boone county right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Maybe BARELY east of the center of the town. But people on the southeast side of town probably got a direct hit, if my radar eyes aren't deceiving me. Like maybe the "Bothwell Regional Health Center"? TWC and KMBC reporting "significant" damage in south and east side of Sedalia. Hopefully their version of significant is simply some downed trees and roof damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titleist_03 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 ok if your heading down 55, it might would be best if you got off 55 at rte 4, just follow hwy 4 down to I-64 instead of making the loop around 255 down to i-64.. it'll save you about 30 miles For sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 TWC and KMBC reporting "significant" damage in south and east side of Sedalia. Hopefully their version of significant is simply some downed trees and roof damage. Ya... I wish they could be more specific when they say things like that! An EF0 can produce "significant damage" to your patio furniture and shingles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 ok if your heading down 55, it might would be best if you got off 55 at rte 4, just follow hwy 4 down to I-64 instead of making the loop around 255 down to i-64.. it'll save you about 30 miles Yep were doing just that, hoping for a solid bass fishing pond in the area to wait on CI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Tigers game still going, with lightning all around and the line bearing down on the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 RT @TWCBreaking: Report from viewer via KSHB in Kansas City: Significant damage in Sedalia, Mo. "...like nothing I've ever experienced." #tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 RT @TWCBreaking: Report from viewer via KSHB in Kansas City: Significant damage in Sedalia, Mo. "...like nothing I've ever experienced." #tornado Well most people have never experienced even an EF0 tornado... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 TWC and KMBC reporting "significant" damage in south and east side of Sedalia. Hopefully their version of significant is simply some downed trees and roof damage. The couplet was ~70 kt, so I'd be surprised if there was anything more than some tree and roof damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 RT @TWCBreaking: Report from viewer via KSHB in Kansas City: Significant damage in Sedalia, Mo. "...like nothing I've ever experienced." #tornado I sure hope it didn't directly hit that hospital southeast of the town's center.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm going all out and saying this may be the biggest Tornado day of the year....actual FINAL number wise..or at least close ..the "surprise:" stuff in MO is really going to help inflate the numbers before the main show starts later keep in mind I'm not talking about prelim numbers...some of the longer tracked tornadoes earlier this spring has 10-20+ seperate reports that ended p being the same tornadoes on those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 String of cells in southern MO looking very healthy, now: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=12&delay=15&rbscale=0.42790434782608694&scale=0.698&noclutter=0&ID=SGF&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=None&map.x=382&map.y=329¢erx=300¢ery=340&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&showlabels=0&rainsnow=Hide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Just going to say it now before it gets busy--please keep the posts appropriate, serious, and should you post twitter/news, make sure it is a valid report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Cell west of Crawfordsville, IN looks like it has some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm going all out and saying this may be the biggest Tornado day of the year....actual FINAL number wise..or leaat least close ..the "surprise:" stuff in MO is really going to help inflate the numbers before the main show starts later I doubt it beats April 27th outbreak....weren't there over 200 tornado reports that day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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