weathergy Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 This storm should need a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Sun coming out earlier than i expected with good clearing back into northern MO, threat much lower up north, but not as low as i earlier thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 As I look at surface pressure falls it looks like the surface low will track from Eastern KS to Quincy to Chicago. Areas se of that line will really be under the gun later today and this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Nice line with some cells popping out ahead in eastern IL, although nothing warned there at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I don't think the part of the high risk west of MS river is really warranted to be honest. The backed winds ahead of the confluence line are all at or east of the MS river after 21z when the LLJ starts cranking back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF AR...WRN TN...NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 251652Z - 251815Z DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL THREAT OF LONG-TRACKED/STRONG TORNADOES. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED...MOST LIKELY BY 18Z. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING CU FIELD AND CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MUCH OF AR DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN TX AS OF 16Z. 12Z WRF-NMM DEPICTS DISCRETE CELLS EMANATING OUT OF THIS CU FIELD BY 19Z...WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS FASTER WITH TSTM INITIATION BUT SIMILAR IN CONVECTIVE MODE. ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO SUPERCELLS GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER PROFILER AND VWP DATA...AMIDST A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN A BROAD AXIS OF A 45-55 KT LLJ...POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/STRONG TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GREATLY TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON. ..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Latest update from IND: nwsind-meso: looking at the latest model data from the Rapid Update Cycle, look like we could have a round of strong thunderstorms move in around mid afternoon. Don't think that'll be it. Model sounding show prime set up for tornadoes with strong shear along a boundary just south of Indianapolis. Wind shear looks very favorable for significant tornadoes after 6PM EDT over the southwest and soutn central areas of IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Pushed out a current Severe Weather Analysis. Currently tracking high instability areas in and near Dyresburg, TN - Hopkinsville, KY - Branson, MO - Jackson, TN - Tupelo, MS - Poplar Bluff, MO. Seeing current values of SFC CAPE's 2375.7, 0-3KM Shear pretty impressive at 57 knots, LI's around -8.3, and 0-1KM EHI's around 5.7. Environment favorable for EF2- EF3. Convective Gusts of 83.8 knots and hail up to 2.9" in diameter. Uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Schools here are closing - people pulling kids out of school - community shelters opening - people are asking counties to open shelters that really don't exist. Not sure it is a good idea to have hundreds of people in old court houses or so called shelters. Some people's basements or storm shelters could be a better shelter if these places are not really shelters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I don't think the part of the high risk west of MS river is really warranted to be honest. The backed winds ahead of the confluence line are all at or east of the MS river after 21z when the LLJ starts cranking back up. Just curious...what are your thoughts down this way for Memphis? I've been back and forth myself on any real strong tornado threat (putting aside a general tornado and of course hail/wind threat). Seems like you may think we're kind of on the line between the biggest stuff...which is me too essentially. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Latest update from IND: nwsind-meso: looking at the latest model data from the Rapid Update Cycle, look like we could have a round of strong thunderstorms move in around mid afternoon. Don't think that'll be it. Model sounding show prime set up for tornadoes with strong shear along a boundary just south of Indianapolis. Wind shear looks very favorable for significant tornadoes after 6PM EDT over the southwest and soutn central areas of IN. We have a boundary just south of here right now. Light east winds while areas south are strong southerly. Sun is out and temps warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Lotta stuff popping early near KC and Sedalia. Some couplets on radar buth nothing too strong yet.. Of course this is far west of the high risk area. I agree as fast as a bust goes the northern fringe has to biggest potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 You all stay safe out there today. Let's keep these things in open fields today. I was as close to a monster tornado yesterday than I ever want to be again. 5 miles to be exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Some people's basements or storm shelters could be a better shelter if these places are not really shelters. Trust me, some of those old courthouses are built solid as a rock. I'd hide out there. In fact if things get bad enough, I might go hang out at the Capitol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 that boundary is now starting to stall just south of STL and really cook for the next few hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 That are on AR is right under the 500mb jet. Perfect place for supercells.That area and points northeast seem like a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 everyone stay safe today! I'll be watching closely as all my in-laws live between carbondale, IL and Evansville, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Trust me, some of those old courthouses are built solid as a rock. I'd hide out there. In fact if things get bad enough, I might go hang out at the Capitol. Reminds me of when I worked the court beat for the Southern Illinoisan in Murphysboro. The first Jackson County Courthouse had been destroyed during the tri-State Tornado in 1925. The rebuilt courthouse has three foot thick cement walls. The bailiffs would always talk about how when they rebuilt the building they built it to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Just curious...what are your thoughts down this way for Memphis? I've been back and forth myself on any real strong tornado threat (putting aside a general tornado and of course hail/wind threat). Seems like you may think we're kind of on the line between the biggest stuff...which is me too essentially. Thanks I'd say you're on the western edge of the highest risk areas, but yeah it's close. If the storms fire earlier when the prefrontal trough is west of you, then you'd be more under the gun. I'd watch the surface obs to diagnose where that trough is, as the strong/violent tornado threat should maximize ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 that boundary is now starting to stall just south of STL and really cook for the next few hours.. do you know why COD server is running so slow...it has been that way the past couple of days ----------------- everthting is setting up for a widrespread and high number of tornado reports....I expect well over 100 prelim reports... under the cut off 500mb cold pool over MO which is happening now..in these set up you get more Tornadoes then typical severe weather parameters suggest there seems to be more conervgerence ahead of the storms more east over MO into AR too for another line forming then you have the "old" storms storms in IND too .. full sunshine here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 strong tornadic sig just south of Climax Springs, MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 This? http://www.kokomo-weather.com/RUC/ wonder how accurate this is...pretty frightening for cmh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 The real deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 do you know why COD server is running so slow...it has been that way the past couple of days I'm not quite sure why its been running slow but some people have been working on it lately to get the problem fixed. Were about to SPI, heading to Nashville, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Christ, here we go again. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... EASTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 100 PM CDT * AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN SEDALIA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SEDALIA...SEDALIA MEMORIAL ARPT...CLIFTON CITY AND NELSON. THIS WILL IMPACT I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'd say you're on the western edge of the highest risk areas, but yeah it's close. If the storms fire earlier when the prefrontal trough is west of you, then you'd be more under the gun. I'd watch the surface obs to diagnose where that trough is, as the strong/violent tornado threat should maximize ahead of it. Thanks as always. Sounds like we're in very good agreement there. Hoping for the best...but after the year we've had know anything is possible. We've been very fortunate here in the MEG area this year...most threats have avoided this area aside from straight-line wind damage. Hopefully we'll continue that trend Today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1224 PM TORNADO SEDALIA 38.70N 93.23W 05/25/2011 PETTIS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT TORNADO ON GROUND IN SEDALIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 O no. Here we go again. Another populated area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 At least the couplet isnt that strong as of the last scan..thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 O no. Here we go again. Another populated area Looks like the couplet went just east of Sedalia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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