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May 25th Severe weather thread


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I don't think the part of the high risk west of MS river is really warranted to be honest. The backed winds ahead of the confluence line are all at or east of the MS river after 21z when the LLJ starts cranking back up.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1152 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF AR...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251652Z - 251815Z

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL

THREAT OF LONG-TRACKED/STRONG TORNADOES. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE

REQUIRED...MOST LIKELY BY 18Z.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEPENING CU FIELD AND

CLOUD STREETS ACROSS MUCH OF AR DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT

EXTENDED FROM FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN TX AS OF 16Z. 12Z WRF-NMM

DEPICTS DISCRETE CELLS EMANATING OUT OF THIS CU FIELD BY 19Z...WITH

RECENT HRRR RUNS FASTER WITH TSTM INITIATION BUT SIMILAR IN

CONVECTIVE MODE. ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO

SUPERCELLS GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER

PROFILER AND VWP DATA...AMIDST A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY

WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. ANY SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN A

BROAD AXIS OF A 45-55 KT LLJ...POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/STRONG

TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GREATLY TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011

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Latest update from IND:

nwsind-meso: looking at the latest model data from the Rapid Update Cycle, look like we could have a round of strong thunderstorms move in around mid afternoon. Don't think that'll be it. Model sounding show prime set up for tornadoes with strong shear along a boundary just south of Indianapolis. Wind shear looks very favorable for significant tornadoes after 6PM EDT over the southwest and soutn central areas of IN.

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Pushed out a current Severe Weather Analysis. Currently tracking high instability areas in and near Dyresburg, TN - Hopkinsville, KY - Branson, MO - Jackson, TN - Tupelo, MS - Poplar Bluff, MO. Seeing current values of SFC CAPE's 2375.7, 0-3KM Shear pretty impressive at 57 knots, LI's around -8.3, and 0-1KM EHI's around 5.7. Environment favorable for EF2- EF3. Convective Gusts of 83.8 knots and hail up to 2.9" in diameter. Uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net/

usa.jpg

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Schools here are closing - people pulling kids out of school - community shelters opening - people are asking counties to open shelters that really don't exist.

Not sure it is a good idea to have hundreds of people in old court houses or so called shelters.

Some people's basements or storm shelters could be a better shelter if these places are not really shelters.

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I don't think the part of the high risk west of MS river is really warranted to be honest. The backed winds ahead of the confluence line are all at or east of the MS river after 21z when the LLJ starts cranking back up.

Just curious...what are your thoughts down this way for Memphis? I've been back and forth myself on any real strong tornado threat (putting aside a general tornado and of course hail/wind threat). Seems like you may think we're kind of on the line between the biggest stuff...which is me too essentially. Thanks :)

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Latest update from IND:

nwsind-meso: looking at the latest model data from the Rapid Update Cycle, look like we could have a round of strong thunderstorms move in around mid afternoon. Don't think that'll be it. Model sounding show prime set up for tornadoes with strong shear along a boundary just south of Indianapolis. Wind shear looks very favorable for significant tornadoes after 6PM EDT over the southwest and soutn central areas of IN.

We have a boundary just south of here right now. Light east winds while areas south are strong southerly. Sun is out and temps warming.

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Some people's basements or storm shelters could be a better shelter if these places are not really shelters.

Trust me, some of those old courthouses are built solid as a rock. I'd hide out there.

In fact if things get bad enough, I might go hang out at the Capitol.

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Trust me, some of those old courthouses are built solid as a rock. I'd hide out there.

In fact if things get bad enough, I might go hang out at the Capitol.

Reminds me of when I worked the court beat for the Southern Illinoisan in Murphysboro. The first Jackson County Courthouse had been destroyed during the tri-State Tornado in 1925. The rebuilt courthouse has three foot thick cement walls.

The bailiffs would always talk about how when they rebuilt the building they built it to last.

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Just curious...what are your thoughts down this way for Memphis? I've been back and forth myself on any real strong tornado threat (putting aside a general tornado and of course hail/wind threat). Seems like you may think we're kind of on the line between the biggest stuff...which is me too essentially. Thanks :)

I'd say you're on the western edge of the highest risk areas, but yeah it's close. If the storms fire earlier when the prefrontal trough is west of you, then you'd be more under the gun. I'd watch the surface obs to diagnose where that trough is, as the strong/violent tornado threat should maximize ahead of it.

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that boundary is now starting to stall just south of STL and really cook for the next few hours..

do you know why COD server is running so slow...it has been that way the past couple of days

-----------------

everthting is setting up for a widrespread and high number of tornado reports....I expect well over 100 prelim reports...

under the cut off 500mb cold pool over MO which is happening now..in these set up you get more Tornadoes then typical severe weather parameters suggest

there seems to be more conervgerence ahead of the storms more east over MO into AR too for another line forming

then you have the "old" storms storms in IND too ..

full sunshine here

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Christ, here we go again.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1225 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

EASTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

SOUTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS

TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN SEDALIA. DOPPLER RADAR

SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SEDALIA...SEDALIA MEMORIAL ARPT...CLIFTON CITY AND NELSON.

THIS WILL IMPACT

I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 95.

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I'd say you're on the western edge of the highest risk areas, but yeah it's close. If the storms fire earlier when the prefrontal trough is west of you, then you'd be more under the gun. I'd watch the surface obs to diagnose where that trough is, as the strong/violent tornado threat should maximize ahead of it.

Thanks as always. Sounds like we're in very good agreement there. Hoping for the best...but after the year we've had know anything is possible. We've been very fortunate here in the MEG area this year...most threats have avoided this area aside from straight-line wind damage. Hopefully we'll continue that trend Today...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

1225 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1224 PM TORNADO SEDALIA 38.70N 93.23W

05/25/2011 PETTIS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO ON GROUND IN SEDALIA

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