beneficii Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Take note of the gravity waves across the High Risk area. Classic signal of intense turbulence and another active day. For anyone interested, I have two excellent articles about the implications of gravity waves and subsequent convective activity from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) the first is my favorite, however the second is relevant as well. First Publication Second Publication Where exactly would the gravity wave look like? EDIT: Nevermind: http://pcl.physics.uwo.ca/science/gravitywaves/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Tornado Watch #368 in effect until 7:00pm Eastern Time: http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0368.html EDIT (10:02am): Corrected post for the time zone of the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Tornado Watch #368 in effect until 7:00pm Central Time: http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0368.html wow til 7pm... i don't ever recall a 9 hour watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 wow til 7pm... i don't ever recall a 9 hour watch They have occurred with landfalling tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Where exactly would the gravity wave look like? EDIT: Nevermind: I'm going to post this for anyone interested. Take a look at the clouds in the red circles and take note of the wave-like feature, now in the second image, notice how they line up in the high Risk area. I'm not saying gravity waves are the tell-all, but it's been my experience they signal an area for deeper convection during an outbreak. High Risk overlay: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 wow til 7pm... i don't ever recall a 9 hour watch 7pm ET not central... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 7pm ET not central... It is 10 AM Eastern, that is 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomspy77 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Woke up here in Evergreen Park to lots of lightniing, rain and thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 859 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN IROQUOIS COUNTY... WESTERN BENTON COUNTY... * UNTIL 930 AM CDT/1030 AM EDT/ * AT 854 AM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 1 MILE WEST OF HOOPESTON...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLAYTONVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MILFORD AROUND 905 AM. STOCKLAND...FREELAND PARK AND DUNNINGTON AROUND 1010 AM. SHELDON AROUND 920 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 well that's a tornado without warning then as Hoopeston is in Vermillion county, which is ILX territory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Surprised to see reports of tors touching down so early this morning...now north of Hoopeston moving into IN and earlier near Monticello IL. Also surprised at issuance so early of tor watch for most of IN. Will probably see a PDS watch down in southern IL southward in the high risk area later today. Initial line of t storms approaching Elkhart from the sw as sky is darkening now in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Warmer temps now forecasted for today and tomorrow. I'm assuming that's because the low is going further north than expected? Not by much but enough to raise the temps here on the borderline of the warm front. Also surprised to wake up to a heavy storm since it got down into the lower 50s and low humidity last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Check the speed SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 911 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 ILC075-INC007-251430- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110525T1430Z/ IROQUOIS IL-BENTON IN- 911 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND SOUTHEASTERN IROQUOIS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT/1030 AM EDT/... AT 907 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STOCKLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF HOOPESTON BY A TRAINED SPOTTER WITH THIS STORM. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SHELDON AROUND 915 AM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 This is just west of my old stomping grounds at Kentland. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Today ought to be interesting! I woke up to a T-Storm and the SPC lifting the Slight Risk well North into Southern MI. So far so good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 73/65 here. Feeling the stickiness and enjoying the sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 The questions for me here in Memphis revolve around low-level shear and LCLs. If these remain favorable into the afternoon...a very significant tornado threat may evolve. Otherwise...it could play out like DFW last night...supercells still quite possible...with very large hail and weak tornadoes...but maybe we'd escape a strong-violent threat...at least this far south. Keeping winds backed S-SSE will probably be key...as well as surface temperatures. Forecast is near 90 Today...keeping numbers down a few degrees from that may actually be worse IMO since it would keep LCLs favorable. Its already plenty unstable...its not like sun is that necessary Today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Today ought to be interesting! I woke up to a T-Storm and the SPC lifting the Slight Risk well North into Southern MI. So far so good! Today is one of the few days I won't write off due to convective debris...although this is ridiculous, I wasn't expecting any storms this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Very suprised by how a lot of the convection fizzled. Looks like a lot of heating from Ohio down through S IL and into Kentucky. Looks like we might be seeing quite the wind threat when alot of these congeals later on IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm surprised DTX hasn't issued a Flood Advisory for Wayne County yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Very suprised by how a lot of the convection fizzled. Looks like a lot of heating from Ohio down through S IL and into Kentucky. Looks like we might be seeing quite the wind threat when alot of these congeals later on IMBY. yea looks like we have a weak cluster of showers and tstorms that may move thru in the next hour or so, (probably associated with the warm front). Once that's outta here focus turns to later afternoon evening. Looking like the leading edge of anything organized hits here around 6-7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Today is one of the few days I won't write off due to convective debris...although this is ridiculous, I wasn't expecting any storms this morning. I'm skeptical. Debris might hamper our potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Very heavy rain here at Elkhart Dunlap. Temps and dews are 10 degrees warmer sw of this line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm skeptical. Debris might hamper our potential. Doubt it. The areas down in Indiana haven't had daytime heating either and lo' and behold! This event should do well on moisture/warm air advection and dynamics alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Very heavy rain here at Elkhart Dunlap. Temps and dews are 10 degrees warmer sw of this line of storms. same here, just dumping like crazy, any minor deficiancies across the area being wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Near Term update from IND: THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS STORMS AND TORNADOES...AND SPC WILL BE EXPANDING THE HIGH RISK FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT...STRESSED THREAT FOR TORNADOES... DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IN ALL PRODUCTS. SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...AND ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH COURSE OF THE DAY. SO...INCREASED POP CHANCES TO DEFINITE OVER THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A SHORT LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER THE CURRENT STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND A MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC SREF MODEL SHOWS BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MAV STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE. NO CHANGES MADE TO TODAY/S HIGHS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Sort of a dumb question here, but does anyone know where I can find observed soundings for LMK (Louisville)? I can't read them to save my life, but my friend can and he's interested in seeing what our cap looks like at the moment. What I do know, is that it's clear and sunny in Frankfort right now. I sort of figured that I'd wake up to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Near Term update from IND: THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS STORMS AND TORNADOES...AND SPC WILL BE EXPANDING THE HIGH RISK FURTHER NORTH. AS A RESULT...STRESSED THREAT FOR TORNADOES... DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IN ALL PRODUCTS. SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...AND ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH COURSE OF THE DAY. SO...INCREASED POP CHANCES TO DEFINITE OVER THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A SHORT LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER THE CURRENT STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND A MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC SREF MODEL SHOWS BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MAV STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE. NO CHANGES MADE TO TODAY/S HIGHS AT THIS TIME. That means we could also eek out a moderate risk up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SRN MO...WRN AND NRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 251454Z - 251630Z STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN WRN MO AND WRN AR. AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY. INITIALLY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT AS THE STORMS MATURE...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF STORM INITIATION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER ERN KS WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MO AND ACROSS ALL OF AR INTO MS AND WRN TN. A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BUT THE CAP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW MO AND WRN AR AROUND 17Z...SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY ENEWD ACROSS SE MO AND NE AR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 65 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY...A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST BUT AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE MCD AREA BY 18Z TO 21Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 350 TO 450 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 DTX is a tad more confident in severe weather around 00z this evening, and the best threat will be from Detroit (8 Mile) and southward. This includes the whole kit and kaboodle (supercells, bow echos, tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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