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May 25th Severe weather thread


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I think the MDT risk is too far west personally. I'm becoming pretty confident that the highest tornado risk will be along the MS river and east, basically in the SE 1/3 of the current MDT risk outline. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all are in agreement with the reintensification of the LLJ along the MS river, and the RUC is showing this as well.

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IND AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

309 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND

TONIGHT...AND THEN LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS

EVENING. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY

RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY

WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT THE REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY

WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS

ARE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST PART...SO USED A BLEND.

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IOWA DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THE

MOMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SWING NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. DIURNAL

TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES

EAST...AND THE HI RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.

THUS FEEL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LOWER THIS MORNING...BUT

THEY WILL NOT BE NONEXISTANT.

WILL GO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CHANCE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE

LINE MOVES IN...THEN KEEP IT SIMPLE AND GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST LIKELY WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS

FIRST LINE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING PERHAPS

INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN A LULL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTON...THEN

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO INSTABILITY BUILDING AGAIN THIS

AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE. SHEAR WILL INCREASE

THIS AFTERNOON...AND A MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE

THIS AFTERNOON. SPC SREF MODEL SHOWS BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE

WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE

EVENING. THUS SPC/S MODERATE RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER TODAY.

WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL

PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THEN.

MAV LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THEN ON CHANCES FOR

RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

12Z ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW COMPARED TO ALL OTHER MODELS...SO WILL

TREND TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE FASTER SOLUTION.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL

CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. EXPECT

A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL

GO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS. THE SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE

TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN RETURNS

WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH ALL THAT/S GOING

ON...WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH TIMING AND KEEP THE CATEGORICAL POPS

THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL HAVE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT MOVES

ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE

ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT

SO LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO CHANCE CATEGORY.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#PWO

The PWO is issued only for Day 1 Outlooks. If the probabilities support a PWO issuance on the 0600 UTC Day 1 Outlook, a PWO would be issued around 1000 UTC and updated around 1700 UTC. If the probabilities first support a PWO issuance on the 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook, the PWO would be issued around 1300 UTC and updated around 1700 UTC.
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ILN AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

428 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE

SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN INDIANA.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW TRAVELS TO

THE EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH A WARM

FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE

OF THE ILN AREA. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW

AROUND THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. AS INSTABILITY AND

WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED

TORNADOES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER

80S...SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY

DECREASES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO OCCUR ON

THURSDAY AS THE STRONG MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF

THE LOW MOVING THROUGH INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL

BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS

INDICATE LOWER HELICITY THAN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH POINTS TOWARD

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS RATHER THAN TORNADOES.

WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY

LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST ON

THURSDAY IN LIMITED SUNSHINE. READINGS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN

THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE LOW.

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Tomorrow certainly has my interest for chasing. NW Ohio might be able to get in on that tornado action as STI's certainly are impressive. Between 20-30 during the afternoon and night time is more than enough for some good action. Expecting a very widespread day tomorrow

Nice little blip:

CENTRAL_RUC236_ATMOS_STP-NEW_18HR.gif

I just have to hold out and see if theres anything local available. Wasn't able to take tonight off of work.

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Nice little blip:

CENTRAL_RUC236_ATMOS_STP-NEW_18HR.gif

I just have to hold out and see if theres anything local available. Wasn't able to take tonight off of work.

Yeah that's what I do, just stay around the area. Why leave when basically I have the same sight lines as Oklahoma does? With that being said our best tv met who has years of experience from being out in Kansas said he expects storms to be tornadic in nature across NW Ohio tomorrow.

Sorry about constantly talking about my area only but there does seem to be little talk of the northern portions of the risk area today and things could be very dicey around here as well

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...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST

ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST

INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK

AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE LWR AND MID MS VLYS INTO THE LWR OH VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE

AREAS...FROM SE TX NORTHEAST TO THE LWR GRT LKS...

...SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLY

INTO THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

POTENT KS UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO WRN MO LATE TODAY...AND

INTO WRN IL EARLY THU...AS ASSOCIATED BELT OF 70+ KT MID LVL FLOW

SWEEPS E/NE FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS.

AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS SHOULD TRACK E INTO CNTRL

MO BY TNGT...AND INTO CNTRL IL EARLY THU. A SERIES OF CONFLUENCE

AXES/WEAK COLD FRONTS IN THE SRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL MOVE

STEADILY E ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY

THU. E OF THE LOW...FRONT NOW EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND

SHOULD ADVANCE N/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN MI AND THE LWR GRT

LKS.

..OZARKS INTO THE MID/LWR MS AND OH VLYS TODAY/TONIGHT

STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN DRY SLOT OF

SYSTEM UPR LOW AS THAT SYSTEM CONTINUES STEADILY EWD. BY EARLY TO

MID AFTN...SBCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 2500 J/KG OVER A BROAD CORRIDOR S OF

WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IL/IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS... WITH HIGHER

VALUES POSSIBLE IN AXIS OF RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE

MS DELTA REGION OF AR/MS/TN.

SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON LEAD WIND

SHIFT/COLD FRONT OVER THE MO/AR OZARKS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH OTHER

STORMS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME OR PERHAPS A BIT LATER

ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN IL SSW INTO SE

MO/ERN AR/WRN TN. ISOLD DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN

AND EVE SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SE TX AND LA.

STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM AR/TN NWD WILL BE AUGMENTED BY ASCENT/MID LVL

COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE NOW ENTERING NW AR. AS THIS

FEATURE CONTINUES PIVOTING NEWD...ASSOCIATED BAND OF 50+ KT WSWLY TO

SWLY 700 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF AR...SE MO...SRN

IL/IND...AND WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN...ENHANCING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.

AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD CURRENT OF SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST

AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD AREA WITH PW AOA 1.25

INCHES FROM THE WRN GULF CST WELL INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS.

COMBINATION OF BROAD...MOISTURE-RICH...WEAKLY-CAPPED UNSTABLE

ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS

SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. SOME OF

THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ALONG IL/MO/AR CONFLUENCE BAND...COULD

YIELD STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR

ALONG W/E WARM FRONT IN IL/IND. WIND PROFILES AND WEAKLY LINEAR LOW

LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE

SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS WITHIN THESE

STRUCTURES LIKELY WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES IN

ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL INTO THE NIGHT. AN EXTENSIVE QLCS

MAY EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS BY EARLY THU AS THE BAND

OF STRONGEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SSWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF

MO/IL UPR TROUGH APPROACHES THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/25/2011

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And we're off...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

757 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT.

* AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR MONTICELLO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS

TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED THE TORNADO

ON THE GROUND NORTH OF CERRO GORDER AT 745 AM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WHITE HEATH...MANSFIELD...LODGE AND GALESVILLE.

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And we're off...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

757 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT.

* AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR MONTICELLO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS

TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED THE TORNADO

ON THE GROUND NORTH OF CERRO GORDER AT 745 AM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WHITE HEATH...MANSFIELD...LODGE AND GALESVILLE.

I hope Allerton Park :wub: remains untouched

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Sipping my one and only cup of coffee this morning - looking at my house smack dab in the middle of the high risk.

post-77-0-94542700-1306329799.png

LCL heights are fairly low - SPC composite indexes are already impressive this morning - CAPE already over 1000-2000 over far southern IL into southeast MO - west KY.

Beautiful swirl on satellite.

post-77-0-32062000-1306329803.png

post-77-0-95054000-1306329808.png

Take note of the gravity waves across the High Risk area. Classic signal of intense turbulence and another active day. For anyone interested, I have two excellent articles about the implications of gravity waves and subsequent convective activity from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) the first is my favorite, however the second is relevant as well.

First Publication

Second Publication

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