CUmet Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I think the MDT risk is too far west personally. I'm becoming pretty confident that the highest tornado risk will be along the MS river and east, basically in the SE 1/3 of the current MDT risk outline. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all are in agreement with the reintensification of the LLJ along the MS river, and the RUC is showing this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 the HRRR out to 19z.. popping storms in central IL and back west in MO. I'm personally leaning towards central/southern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 IND AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 309 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011 .UPDATE... THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT THE REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST PART...SO USED A BLEND. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IOWA DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THE MOMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SWING NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. DIURNAL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES EAST...AND THE HI RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. THUS FEEL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LOWER THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL NOT BE NONEXISTANT. WILL GO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CHANCE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES IN...THEN KEEP IT SIMPLE AND GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MOST LIKELY WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS FIRST LINE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING PERHAPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN A LULL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTON...THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAD TO INSTABILITY BUILDING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE. SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SPC SREF MODEL SHOWS BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THUS SPC/S MODERATE RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR LATER TODAY. WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THEN. MAV LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF LOOKS A BIT SLOW COMPARED TO ALL OTHER MODELS...SO WILL TREND TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE FASTER SOLUTION. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS. THE SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN RETURNS WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. WITH ALL THAT/S GOING ON...WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH TIMING AND KEEP THE CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL HAVE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SO LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO CHANCE CATEGORY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 When do they issue the public Outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html#PWO The PWO is issued only for Day 1 Outlooks. If the probabilities support a PWO issuance on the 0600 UTC Day 1 Outlook, a PWO would be issued around 1000 UTC and updated around 1700 UTC. If the probabilities first support a PWO issuance on the 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook, the PWO would be issued around 1300 UTC and updated around 1700 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 ILN AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 428 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN INDIANA. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW TRAVELS TO THE EAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE ILN AREA. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. AS INSTABILITY AND WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS THE LOW MOVES INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NEARLY CERTAIN TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS THE STRONG MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH INDIANA. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATE LOWER HELICITY THAN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH POINTS TOWARD DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS RATHER THAN TORNADOES. WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST ON THURSDAY IN LIMITED SUNSHINE. READINGS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Tomorrow certainly has my interest for chasing. NW Ohio might be able to get in on that tornado action as STI's certainly are impressive. Between 20-30 during the afternoon and night time is more than enough for some good action. Expecting a very widespread day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Tomorrow certainly has my interest for chasing. NW Ohio might be able to get in on that tornado action as STI's certainly are impressive. Between 20-30 during the afternoon and night time is more than enough for some good action. Expecting a very widespread day tomorrow Nice little blip: I just have to hold out and see if theres anything local available. Wasn't able to take tonight off of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Nice little blip: I just have to hold out and see if theres anything local available. Wasn't able to take tonight off of work. Yeah that's what I do, just stay around the area. Why leave when basically I have the same sight lines as Oklahoma does? With that being said our best tv met who has years of experience from being out in Kansas said he expects storms to be tornadic in nature across NW Ohio tomorrow. Sorry about constantly talking about my area only but there does seem to be little talk of the northern portions of the risk area today and things could be very dicey around here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Honestly one of the more awesome sounding AFDs from DTX in recent memory... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'd favor areas between I-70 and the Ohio River in Illinois and Indiana, i think some of the far north risk areas should see enough cloud cover to keep things in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 High Risk coming... http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0949.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 SPC is upgrading Southern and Southwestern Indiana, Southern Illinois, Southeastern Missouri, Western Kentucky, Western Tenn. and Northeastern Arkansas to a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Granted it's the HRRR, but goes with my thinking that the mod risk isn't far enough east for late day and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Workinjg nights going to sleep a while but should get into some backyard chasing, stay safe everyone and good luck to all chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 SPC is upgrading Southern and Southwestern Indiana, Southern Illinois, Southeastern Missouri, Western Kentucky, Western Tenn. and Northeastern Arkansas to a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE LWR AND MID MS VLYS INTO THE LWR OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS...FROM SE TX NORTHEAST TO THE LWR GRT LKS... ...SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... POTENT KS UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO WRN MO LATE TODAY...AND INTO WRN IL EARLY THU...AS ASSOCIATED BELT OF 70+ KT MID LVL FLOW SWEEPS E/NE FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS SHOULD TRACK E INTO CNTRL MO BY TNGT...AND INTO CNTRL IL EARLY THU. A SERIES OF CONFLUENCE AXES/WEAK COLD FRONTS IN THE SRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY E ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID/LWR MS VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. E OF THE LOW...FRONT NOW EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND SHOULD ADVANCE N/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN MI AND THE LWR GRT LKS. ..OZARKS INTO THE MID/LWR MS AND OH VLYS TODAY/TONIGHT STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN DRY SLOT OF SYSTEM UPR LOW AS THAT SYSTEM CONTINUES STEADILY EWD. BY EARLY TO MID AFTN...SBCAPE SHOULD BE AOA 2500 J/KG OVER A BROAD CORRIDOR S OF WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL IL/IND SWD INTO THE LWR MS... WITH HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE IN AXIS OF RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE MS DELTA REGION OF AR/MS/TN. SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ON LEAD WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT OVER THE MO/AR OZARKS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH OTHER STORMS LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME OR PERHAPS A BIT LATER ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN IL SSW INTO SE MO/ERN AR/WRN TN. ISOLD DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SE TX AND LA. STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM AR/TN NWD WILL BE AUGMENTED BY ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE NOW ENTERING NW AR. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES PIVOTING NEWD...ASSOCIATED BAND OF 50+ KT WSWLY TO SWLY 700 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF AR...SE MO...SRN IL/IND...AND WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN...ENHANCING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD CURRENT OF SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD AREA WITH PW AOA 1.25 INCHES FROM THE WRN GULF CST WELL INTO THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS. COMBINATION OF BROAD...MOISTURE-RICH...WEAKLY-CAPPED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ALONG IL/MO/AR CONFLUENCE BAND...COULD YIELD STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR ALONG W/E WARM FRONT IN IL/IND. WIND PROFILES AND WEAKLY LINEAR LOW LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS WITHIN THESE STRUCTURES LIKELY WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL INTO THE NIGHT. AN EXTENSIVE QLCS MAY EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VLYS BY EARLY THU AS THE BAND OF STRONGEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SSWLY FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF MO/IL UPR TROUGH APPROACHES THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 This is a tough forecast....trying to decide between southern IL or playing the warm front further north. SPC day 1 hints at both having siggy tor potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 And we're off... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 757 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 845 AM CDT. * AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR MONTICELLO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED THE TORNADO ON THE GROUND NORTH OF CERRO GORDER AT 745 AM. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WHITE HEATH...MANSFIELD...LODGE AND GALESVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 And we're off... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 757 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 845 AM CDT. * AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR MONTICELLO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED THE TORNADO ON THE GROUND NORTH OF CERRO GORDER AT 745 AM. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WHITE HEATH...MANSFIELD...LODGE AND GALESVILLE. I hope Allerton Park remains untouched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Whoever is chasing today should just camp out near Jackson, Tennessee. It's almost inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Odd's seem to suggest that Memphis, Nashville, Louisville and Indy are all game today, and I'm probably leaving a city or two out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 nothing like waking up and seeing oh btw not only did we NOT get an early round of storms, we have sunshine here in Flora and were at the doorstep of a high risk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 convective clusterfuuck up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 New MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 What do you know, I wake up to a thunderstorm. I certainly wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Sipping my one and only cup of coffee this morning - looking at my house smack dab in the middle of the high risk. I'm beginning to think Mother Nature has it in for you, Beau - first the flooding, now this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Sipping my one and only cup of coffee this morning - looking at my house smack dab in the middle of the high risk. LCL heights are fairly low - SPC composite indexes are already impressive this morning - CAPE already over 1000-2000 over far southern IL into southeast MO - west KY. Beautiful swirl on satellite. Take note of the gravity waves across the High Risk area. Classic signal of intense turbulence and another active day. For anyone interested, I have two excellent articles about the implications of gravity waves and subsequent convective activity from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) the first is my favorite, however the second is relevant as well. First Publication Second Publication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Best of luck down your way Beau. We all know you'll be extremely busy later today. Hopefully you don't have to use that shelter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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