cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 If I were chasing tomorrow I'd head for the Springfield/St. Louis/Quincy triangle, or somewhere west or southwest of Springfield. That's great chase country too. Obviously things may need tweaked by then, but that area should become pretty unstable, and have very respectable deep layer shear. Especially the lower few km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 alot of like with this picture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 alot of like with this picture.. Good stuff. It's hard to get 850mb winds that backed in Illinois without the mid levels also being backed lol. I'm pretty impressed with the broad H7 jet punching northeast into the instability axis. Quite a wide area over 50kts, with even some pockets over 60kts. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Good stuff. It's hard to get 850mb winds that backed in Illinois without the mid levels also being backed lol. I'm pretty impressed with the broad H7 jet punching northeast into the instability axis. Quite a wide area over 50kts, with even some pockets over 60kts. Nice. storm motion could be a bit of a problem though so a nice right mover would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 alot of like with this picture.. I'm not sure if it's my imagination but does it seem like it's hanging the LLJ slightly farther west than before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm not sure if it's my imagination but does it seem like it's hanging the LLJ slightly farther west than before? Each run 12/18/0z have come in stronger and farther north. It's essentially in the same area as the 18z(E/W wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm not sure if it's my imagination but does it seem like it's hanging the LLJ slightly farther west than before? here is what the 12z run had... the new run has it stronger, further north and the strongest winds over a smaller, concentrated area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 HRRR up to noontime now. Looks like things are about to explode over eastern Missouri at this point. HRRR forecasts cape values of over 3000j/kg from Quincy/Lincoln southward. Kind of looks like a snowstorm in western Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 NAM and SPC WRF both hinting at a potential "surprise" up in the Chicago metro late morning and early afternoon with the first wave. The NAM builds instability along the frontal axis ahead of the wave and both models intensify convection around 15z, with the WRF looking like it would paint semi discrete structures with high updraft helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 HRRR up to noontime now. Looks like things are about to explode over eastern Missouri at this point. HRRR forecasts cape values of over 3000j/kg from Quincy/Lincoln southward. Kind of looks like a snowstorm in western Iowa. Its also having storms starting to go up in central IL along and south of the warm front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 NAM and SPC WRF both hinting at a potential "surprise" up in the Chicago metro late morning and early afternoon with the first wave. The NAM builds instability along the frontal axis ahead of the wave and both models intensify convection around 15z, with the WRF looking like it would paint semi discrete structures with high updraft helicity. thoughts on the mid-afternoon to evening timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 thoughts on the mid-afternoon to evening timeframe? It will all be dependent on the post-first-wave clearing. And that we can't know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 You guys think we're looking at a high risk at 6z? I'm on the fence between high end MDT (15% hatched tornado) and High. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 You guys think we're looking at a high risk at 6z? I'm on the fence between high end MDT (15% hatched tornado) and High. I personally would only go moderate until evolution of convection/clearing becomes more certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I personally would only go moderate until evolution of convection/clearing becomes more certain. I'm curious what you think for further south, down into the Mid-South, down to around the Memphis metro. My thinking is that the best dynamics would go north, but Memphis can still have a strong evening threat, with a possible daytime threat depending on mesoscale factors. What is your thinking on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It looks like there'll be two main focii for initiation, the first being along the cold front across central MO to north-central AR, and the second being along a prefrontal trough near the reintensifying low-level jet along the MS river. The latter I think bears the best chance of significant tornadic supercells given the stronger mid-upper level flow and the stronger LLJ. I would say the area of highest risk would be NW TN/W KY/S IL/SW IN. I'm buying the NAM depiction of the surface wind field a lot more than the jumbled mess the GFS shows. The NAM shows substantially-backed surface winds ahead of the prefrontal trough, and I suspect that this will play out, and if anything is slightly underestimated. Overall, I'd probably lean towards this being a high risk eventually, although I'd be on the fence regarding a 06z upgrade as well. This certainly does seem a notch below today's event, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Overall, I'd probably lean towards this being a high risk eventually, although I'd be on the fence regarding a 06z upgrade as well. This certainly does seem a notch below today's event, though. For sure, meteorologically speaking. But the impact may be worse since there's denser populations on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 For sure, meteorologically speaking. But the impact may be worse since there's denser populations on average. Thats my biggest worry as well. This map is 5 years old, but still paints the picture well: Much more red from mississippi river eastward, compared to OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Day 1 Moderate Risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Ugh. I need sleep before this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND SWWD INTO AR/NERN TX/NRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SHIFT STEADILY EWD WHILE WEAKENING SLOWLY WITH TIME. THIS LOW SHOULD REACH THE MID MS VALLEY LATE...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET ROTATES NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER WEST...A LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE...AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN KS IS EXPECTED TO REACH NRN INDIANA LATE...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO LIKEWISE ADVANCE EWD ACROSS MO/AR TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. IN THE WEST...A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE WILL CROSS THE PAC NW AND THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH 26/12Z. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WWD INTO SERN IA/MO/AR/LA/E TX... A BROAD ZONE OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER -- INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND SCATTERED STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES -- IS FORECAST ACROSS A REGION CENTERED OVER THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS TODAY. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE CROSSING IA/IL...WITH ISOLATED/WEAKENING CONVECTION POSSIBLY ARCING SWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN SWWD INTO ERN TX. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY STATES THROUGH MIDDAY...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS SHOULD PERMIT REINTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION OF STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. STORM EXPANSION MAY POSSIBLY EXTEND AS FAR S AS WRN TN/NRN MS. MEANWHILE...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN A SECOND BAND FARTHER W...DEVELOPING ACROSS MO JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...AND THEN EXPANDING SWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH 70 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY JET ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ON SERN FRINGE OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW...SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS -- WITH STORM MODE TO INCLUDE BOTH SUPERCELLS...AND RAPIDLY MOVING/BOWING CLUSTERS. IN ADDITION TO STRONG MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES... LOW-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...AND THEREFORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL LARGE/STRONG TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKEWISE EXPECTED -- PARTICULARLY NEAR BOWING STORM CLUSTERS...AND LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SECOND/FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS SHOULD CROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL ADVANCING ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING. GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM SEVERITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY APPROACH THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS -- AND SHIFT SWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST -- THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 05/25/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 tor And a large area of 45% hatched hail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Day 1 Moderate Risk Looks like they expanded it a bit north from the previous update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Looks like they expanded it a bit north from the previous update It has, in Indiana at least. It ended just south of I-70 before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It has, in Indiana at least. It ended just south of I-70 before. Yeah much higher probs in S. Lower MI too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 You know it's going to be a rough severe weather day when the NWS is using the SPS to get severe weather safety information out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 You know it's going to be a rough severe weather day when the NWS is using the SPS to get severe weather safety information out. You got that right. Im curious as to how much the early stuff affects our heating and instability. I just cant get a good feel for this event right now. Not sure how its going to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 risk area overlaid on population Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.