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May 25th Severe weather thread


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from ILX

THE EVOLUTION OF THE MISSOURI MCS AS WELL AS WHAT IS DEVELOPING OVER

KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AND

ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT

FROM THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER INTO TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT

NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW COMES

INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY 00Z THU. IF ENOUGH RECOVERY CAN TAKE PLACE

AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY...THEN THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH

BETTER THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LAYER SHEAR FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY

WILL BE OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE

AREA. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS...

POSSIBLY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA...WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

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MEG:

SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST

OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A

QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) LATER THIS EVENING AS IT

MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE

TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH IN

INTENSITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT

TO THE WEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND POTENTIAL

NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN

SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER FAR

NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...BUT AN OVERALL WEAKENING

TREND AND REDUCTION IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN A

SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE

REGION...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED LATE

TONIGHT. ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORM TONIGHT WOULD POSE A MARGINALLY

SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT. THIS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY

MAY LAY OUT A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS

OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MID

SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN

EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. STRONG INSTABILITY

SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH

WITH SBCAPES EXPECTED BETWEEN 2500-4000 J/KG AND LI/S BETWEEN -8C

AND -10C. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE CAPPED BY A

MID LEVEL INVERSION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW AND

ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 70 METERS

OVERSPREADS THE WEAKLY CAPPED VERY UNSTABLE NEAR SURFACE

AIRMASS...EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE AND EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR

ASSOCIATED WITH AN 80+KT MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX

THROUGH THE OZARKS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...COUPLED WITH A

STRENGTHENING 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE MID SOUTH...SHOULD

BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER EASTERN

ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FROM EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND

EVOLVING EASTWARD INTO FAR WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST

MISSISSIPPI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SUPERCELL

THUNDERSTORMS WITH BE AIDED BY 0-1KM SRH BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2

WHICH WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI BY AFTERNOON. THIS DEGREE OF SRH

SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN VIGOROUS ROTATING

UPDRAFTS IN SUPERCELLS. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LIKELY

WITH ANY OF THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL

FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG...VERY LARGE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF

THE MID SOUTH REMAIN IN A SPC DAY 2 MODERATE RISK AREA...WHICH IS

MORE THAN JUSTIFIED.

DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A

QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS

ALONG OR EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY LATE EVENING. THIS SHOULD

OCCUR AS WIND FEILDS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AS THE

SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE QLCS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE

WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...WHICH COULD

BECOME WIDESPREAD...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BY LATER

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN

AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE

MAY ALSO BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND

ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS THAT

WOULD NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE

MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.

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I heard someone say earlier that this is going to be a classic 'conditional' threat for Southeastern Michigan tomorrow.

What conditions must be met? If all these conditions (within the realm of possibility!) are met, what might we expect?

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It should be, I expect that there will be a good potential of tornadoes north of Indy tomorrow.

Not sure what to think around the FDY region... RUC showing some good instability with the warm front passing by 18-19z... Significant Tornado Ingredients on the SREF of about 30%... so there's obviously potential. One of those days where cloud debris will be very important. Even the NAM looked pretty impressive from FWA to FDY.

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. . . SE MISSOURI INTO SW ILLINOIS IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN INITIALLY ON

WEDNESDAY.

And to think they just dealt with disastrous flooding three weeks ago. As has been said before about so many apsects of this severe weather season . . . this is nearly unfathomable.

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We had 10-11 hail storms (lost count) here at my place in a 10-12 day stretch in April

We had 76 mph winds from one storm with power flashes to the south. We were able to see a funnel cloud with that cell.

We had one tornado pass a few miles south of here - rated EF1

We watched flood waters go over our road from back water from the Ohio River - we could see and observe water surrounding houses to our northwest during the flood for days on end

We had $19,600 in storm damage from the April events here at my place

We had that much and more to some of the real estate we own in west KY - roof damage

We took shelter three times in April - and I rarely get in a storm shelter.

Yes - this has been a hyper-active storm season. And keep in mind the first half of May brought near record LOW severe weather reports!

Mike York from the PAH Office told me they had over 500 reports of severe weather in April - more than 40 tornadoes. INCREDIBLE is all I can say.

The only thing we have not had recently is an earthquake.

Will Wednesday be the icing on the cake? Nothing surprises me anymore - nothing.

Defin concerned for family and friends in our region tomorrow. It will be a long day. Let's hope for a bust.

Thanks Beau now your going to jinx us.....

I agree this is one time that I hope we bust badly... I just have a sick feeling about this one.

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From current radar trends and the placement of the Tornado Watch boxes tonight, I would think we'd see a progression of that convection into Southeast Missouri overnight. But what I'm seeing here is the potential for another outbreak tomorrow afternoon here. Can a promet or knowledgeable amateur explain the process involved that could generate activity tomorrow afternoon? I've been noticing the tendency for multi-day outbreaks but I am not used to this. Normally we see a system / front move through and that's it. What's going on with these multiday outbreaks?

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Thank you sir! I need to get a tornado after you got the Parnell tor on sunday!

That sounding that Chicago posted south of Springfield was SICK. Also makes me sick that I can't chase lol. Ahh, can't chase 'em all though lol. The RUC forecasts some insane instability over all of Illinois tomorrow. It's obviously way overdone but it's still nice to see. The GFS does have pockets of instability over 2500j/kg as far north as Peoria. The wind fields look better a bit further south though, especially south of Springfield.

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