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May 25th Severe weather thread


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Although I had previously written these off an hour or two ago, surface observations and radar trends suggest the threat associated with the cells into east-central AR cells is increasing. Surface winds at Jonesboro, West Memphis, Stuttgart, and Pine Bluff are all at 190 and significantly more backed than recent hi-res model runs. Tightening couplets on radial velocity support the idea that there is actually more helicity than is currently being diagnosed/forecasted by these models.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

508 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

MOC017-023-035-223-252230-

/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0137.000000T0000Z-110525T2230Z/

WAYNE MO-BOLLINGER MO-CARTER MO-BUTLER MO-

508 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR

NORTHWESTERN BUTLER...EASTERN CARTER...BOLLINGER AND WAYNE COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 504 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED NEAR LODI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH INTO MADISON COUNTY.

SPOTTERS REPORTED DEBRIS FALLING FROM THE SKY IN TALLENT IN

BOLLINGER COUNTY. THE CIRCULATION LIKELY PRODUCING A TORNADO IS

LOCATED NORTH OF MARQUAND IN MADISON COUNTY.

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IAC057-087-252215-

/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110525T2215Z/

HENRY IA-DES MOINES IA-

500 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN DES MOINES AND SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 456 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED

APPROXIMATELY NEAR BEAVERDALE...OR NEAR BURLINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT

40 MPH. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DEBRIS FLYING IN THE AIR. THIS IS A

DANGEROUS SITUATION.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

DODGEVILLE AROUND 505 PM CDT...

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Looks like things could get interesting here in NE OH as the evening wears on.

QLCS type squall line moving in from the west with multiple tornado warnings. We are sitting in the upper 70s with dew points in the upper 60s, which is supporting marginally low LCLs of below 1250m per the SPC mesoanalysis. Surface winds have a definite easterly component to them and the low level jet is slowly strengthening, supporting increasing effective helicities along and just ahead of the squall line.

Given 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE ahead of the squall line (and slowly increasing MLCAPEs) along with 40-50 knots of deep layer shear and 20-30 knots of low level shear along and just ahead of the squall line, I don't think we will see any significant weakening of the squall line until the sun goes down at the earliest, so I have a feeling the Cleveland area will get hit hard with scattered damaging winds and maybe a tornado or two.

There is some discrete stuff firing up near Mansfield, OH which is currently non-severe, however if it can stregnthen it may pose a tornado threat before getting absorbed into the squall line.

All I know is I work at 8:30, which may be right around when things get bad here on the east side of Cleveland, and I hope that if there is a tornado warning people don't disregard it after the false alarm that affected a lot of population two days ago here.

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Although I had previously written these off an hour or two ago, surface observations and radar trends suggest the threat associated with the cells into east-central AR cells is increasing. Surface winds at Jonesboro, West Memphis, Stuttgart, and Pine Bluff are all at 190 and significantly more backed than recent hi-res model runs. Tightening couplets on radial velocity support the idea that there is actually more helicity than is currently being diagnosed/forecasted by these models.

Look at those hooks! Best spot to be with the mid level jet right there, aiding in shear in conjunction with CAPE providing updraft stretching.

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AR

ARC031-055-MOC069-252230-

/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0152.000000T0000Z-110525T2230Z/

CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-

510 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN DUNKLIN...GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES...

AT 510 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 60 MPH.

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Will be in Memphis in the next 1-2 hours.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

515 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF

WHEATLEY...OR NEAR BRINKLEY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORREST

CITY...MADISON...PALESTINE...PARKIN...WYNNE AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE

PARK.

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Look at those hooks! Best spot to be with the mid level jet right there, aiding in shear in conjunction with CAPE providing updraft stretching.

2nd that. Those storms should make this a once in 30 year event in the third one in 30 days.

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Saw this report from that storm:

0524 PM HAIL 1 E GREENSBURG 39.34N 85.46W

05/25/2011 E4.00 INCH DECATUR IN PUBLIC

Indy and Cincinnati stations have their choppers over Greensburg showing some impressive looking damage all across the city.

This is the storm moving out of southeastern IN into sw OH:

000

FXUS61 KILN 252137

AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

537 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 5 DEG TONIGHT ACROSS

MOST OF CWA WITH THE EXPECTATION OF RAIN COOLED AIR SWEEPING

THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TRIED TO RAISE TO 100 POP OVER

WESTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUPERCELL MOVING INTO FRANKLIN

COUNTY AT ISSUANCE OF AFD HAS HISTORY OF BASEBALL TO GRAPEFRUIT

HAIL AND 70+ WINDS. THE REST OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE IN A VERY

UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ANY STORMS WORKING IN WILL LIKELY REMAIN

STRONG OR STRENGTHEN.

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ARC031-055-MOC069-252230-

/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0152.000000T0000Z-110525T2230Z/

CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-DUNKLIN MO-

518 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN DUNKLIN...GREENE AND NORTH CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES...

AT 518 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 55 MPH.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

522 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTH CENTRAL CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 522 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LOW HANGING

FUNNEL CLOUD 10 MILES WEST OF CHERRY VALLEY...OR 15 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF HARRISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BAY...

CARAWAY...HARRISBURG...LAKE CITY...LEPANTO...MARKED TREE AND

TRUMANN.

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mcd0965.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...INDIANA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 368... VALID 252219Z - 252345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 368 CONTINUES. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF CNTRL INDIANA. SURFACE MAP SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL IND JUST N OF INDIANAPOLIS. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NWD. WITH STRONG FORCING APPROACHING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES.

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I dont know if anyone posted this but this is some massive hail that hit St. Louis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

459 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0442 PM HAIL ST. LOUIS 38.64N 90.24W

05/25/2011 E4.50 INCH ST. LOUIS CITY MO NWS EMPLOYEE

BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL ON SOUTH SIDE OF CITY.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

523 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

NORTHERN STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 518 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR

POPLAR BLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

WAPPAPELLO...

PUXICO...

BLOOMFIELD...

ADVANCE...

BELL CITY...

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