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May 25th Severe weather thread


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Storm in Hillsboro looks like the first classic supercell structure I've seen today, heading towards the St. Louis 'burbs.

I saw a couple earlier today (a couple hours ago) in north-central Missouri, but ya, this is the first classic-looking cell in a while.

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I'm not too impressed with anything up near the St. Louis area. It appears there's too much forcing for vertical motion, which is allowing convection to break out everywhere and all at once.

Also, the cells in central AR seem to be lagging the backed surface wind field somewhat. It's possible that these cells may catch up and pose a threat for significant tornadoes a couple hours down the road, but at least in the near-term the velocity and reflectivity signatures are suggestive of the wind fields being too unidirectional.

I'd watch the new development just west of the MS River SW of Memphis, this is more colocated with the LLJ shifting east and the backed surface winds.

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I'm not too impressed with anything up near the St. Louis area. It appears there's too much forcing for vertical motion, which is allowing convection to break out everywhere and all at once.

Also, the cells in central AR seem to be lagging the backed surface wind field somewhat. It's possible that these cells may catch up and pose a threat for significant tornadoes a couple hours down the road, but at least in the near-term the velocity and reflectivity signatures are suggestive of the wind fields being too unidirectional.

I'd watch the new development just west of the MS River SW of Memphis, this is more colocated with the LLJ shifting east and the backed surface winds.

Agreed, a lot of the activity around St. Louis looks like one big mess. Think the ones to produce would be the ones in the lead line from Iron County, MO to the south. They look to have better spacing. The storms SW of Memphis like you said are ones to watch too, as they look to be a good distance out ahead of the line in Central AR as well, so as to not have spacing issues with them.

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I'm not too impressed with anything up near the St. Louis area. It appears there's too much forcing for vertical motion, which is allowing convection to break out everywhere and all at once.

Also, the cells in central AR seem to be lagging the backed surface wind field somewhat. It's possible that these cells may catch up and pose a threat for significant tornadoes a couple hours down the road, but at least in the near-term the velocity and reflectivity signatures are suggestive of the wind fields being too unidirectional.

I'd watch the new development just west of the MS River SW of Memphis, this is more colocated with the LLJ shifting east and the backed surface winds.

I would have to agree with this. Some hooks on them, but nothing strong, long duration as of now. So while tornadoes might be dropping, we're avoiding the bigger ones it seems for now.

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nw ohio getting ROCKED. Where's our findlay guys :unsure:

I'm 23 miles west. The first cell to come through had significant rotation, but no wall cloud or lowering structure. Then we picked up about 1/2" of rain in ten minutes. :)

There's another tornado warned cell headed our way in a half hour or so.

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Agreed, a lot of the activity around St. Louis looks like one big mess. Think the ones to produce would be the ones in the lead line from Iron County, MO to the south. They look to have better spacing. The storms SW of Memphis like you said are ones to watch too, as they look to be a good distance out ahead of the line in Central AR as well, so as to not have spacing issues with them.

plus that will also is in a bit better conditions as around STL was NOT the best....

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I'm not too impressed with anything up near the St. Louis area. It appears there's too much forcing for vertical motion, which is allowing convection to break out everywhere and all at once.

Also, the cells in central AR seem to be lagging the backed surface wind field somewhat. It's possible that these cells may catch up and pose a threat for significant tornadoes a couple hours down the road, but at least in the near-term the velocity and reflectivity signatures are suggestive of the wind fields being too unidirectional.

I'd watch the new development just west of the MS River SW of Memphis, this is more colocated with the LLJ shifting east and the backed surface winds.

The new RUC run veers the surface winds big-time over AR over next hour or two. I'm not seeing much of a significant tornado threat with these cells even in the long-term. The cells west and NW of Jonesboro right now are probably fine, and will pose a threat for significant tornadoes over the next few hours.

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Kind of oddly worded warning....but is the only TOG report anywhere at the moment.

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 355 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT. * AT 351 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED STRONG ROTATION NEAR GRANDIN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND IN ELLSINORE.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

355 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 351 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED STRONG ROTATION

NEAR GRANDIN MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND

IN ELLSINORE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

BRUSH ARBOR...

WILLIAMSVILLE...

PIEDMONT...

GREENVILLE...

SHOOK...

SAM A BAKER STATE PARK...

LODI...

CASCADE...

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