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May 25th Severe weather thread


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LLJ should be ramping up now over W AR, shouldn't be much longer. Still kinda suprised by the SREF decreasing the sig tor chances from the highest being right now and almost no chance in W AR.

SHV 18Z low level winds were a little veered, but there was still big instability and reasonable LCLs, W. Arkansas may not be as high as points further East, but I don't think they are safe.

SHV.gif

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New cells NE of Farmington are exploding rapidly and I expect a tornado warning on it soon, this is on a path for the metro

here it is:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF BONNE TERRE...AND MOVING NORTH AT

35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

FESTUS...CRYSTAL CITY...HERCULANEUM...PEVELY...WATERLOO...OLYMPIAN

VILLAGE...VALMEYER...NEW DESIGN...FOUNTAIN...VALLES MILL...FULTS...

CHALFIN BRIDGE...MAEYSTOWN...MONROE CITY...HARRISONVILLE...

MADONNAVILLE...BURKSVILLE...WARTBURG...FOSTER POND AND NEW

HANDOVER.

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SHV 18Z low level winds were a little veered, but there was still big instability and reasonable LCLs, W. Arkansas may not be as high as points further East, but I don't think they are safe.

SHV.gif

hahah brain fart, totally meant E AR. Back to back high risk days is already getting to me.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN MO/NERN AR

SRN

IL/IND...WRN TN/KY...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM

SRN AR INTO WRN OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SCNTRL TX TO SRN LOWER MI

AND WRN UPSTATE NY/WRN PA...

..MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK IS UNDERWAY

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN TORNADIC SUPERCELL EVOLUTION HAVE MADE A

NWWD ADJUSTMENT TO HIGH RISK ACROSS MO. RADAR AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA

SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK EXTENDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT

DRAPED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL MO...EWD INTO THE STL

AREA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR

SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES TO ACCOUNT FOR NUMEROUS...POTENTIALLY

LONG-TRACK AND DAMAGING TORNADOES SPREADING ACROSS ERN MO TOWARD

WCNTRL/SRN IL. ADDITIONALLY...CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING

ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SCT-NUMEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE

OVER THIS REGION THEN SPREAD INTO WRN TN/KY BY EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY HOT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SCNTRL TX

WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S. VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS AN

UPWARD EVOLVING CU LINE ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT THAT MAY WITH TIME

DEVELOP FURTHER INTO SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP

LAYER SHEAR AND EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE

IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO EXTEND HIGHER SEVERE PROBS FOR POSSIBLE

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

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Arkansas about to get in on things:

mcd0960.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0256 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 371...

VALID 251956Z - 252130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 371 CONTINUES.

...THREAT INCREASING FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS WW 371...

INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT PROGRESSED ACROSS SHARP COUNTY AR

HAS RECENTLY SHIFTED INTO SERN MO. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE

FORMING SW OF THIS TSTM WITHIN A CONFLUENCE AXIS THAT STRETCHED

TOWARDS TXK. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR IS EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE

TO RAPID SUPERCELL EVOLUTION. MODIFIED 18Z LZK RAOB SUGGESTS MLCAPE

HAS NOW REACHED 3500 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT.

LARGE HODOGRAPHS...STRONG INSTABILITY AND A DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE

WILL ALL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS

PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

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Significant tornado threat increasing rapidly over SE MO next 1-2 hours. Pressure falls and associated stretching of the isobars towards the south are indicative of a secondary-low development over SE MO which are backing the surface winds ahead.

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DTX...

THE OLD SQUEEZE PLAY WILL BE ON...AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS SWINGING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN MISSOURI SLOWLY BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY...SO FAR SO GOOD...AS WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AS OF 19Z. 60-70 KNOT JET AT 500 MB ALONG THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER ADVANCING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT NOT MUCH GAP IN COVERAGE BETWEEN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...THUS IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER WARM SECTOR/INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH THAT EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AS MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA. ON THE FLIP SIDE...BROAD 500 MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER DOES TRAVEL THROUGH THE HEART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A NORTHWARD JOG...AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE BORDER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH. BOTTOMLINE...A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES FOR PREDOMINATELY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POSSIBLE TORNADIC CELLS AS ONE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.

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Significant tornado threat increasing rapidly over SE MO next 1-2 hours. Pressure falls and associated stretching of the isobars towards the south are indicative of a secondary-low development over SE MO which are backing the surface winds ahead.

Do you think this threat will move into Southern IL!

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LIT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

312 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAUMELLE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF WEST LITTLE

ROCK. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45

MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

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STL

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

316 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 313 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD

NEAR THE INTERSECTION THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATES 44 AND 270.

A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS

DANGEROUS STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

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This is the strongest wording I can remember from SPC for our region - I am sure there have been other instances - but I don't remember reading them.

http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0961.html

Im scheduled to work at 7, See the timing on this but... To be honest if threatened here in Marion I wont be till threat is over. Ready to spot here in moments notice Stay safe Beau

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