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May 25th Severe weather thread


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0153 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NERN TX...NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251853Z - 252100Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE

MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH ALL TYPES OF ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER

POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 80

PERCENT.

18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE

DRYLINE ROUGHLY FROM DEQ TO CRS TO DRT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED

INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE HILL

COUNTRY/CNTRL TX...WITH INCREASING TCU NOTED NEAR CRS. BOTH

OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHETHER

TSTM INITIATION OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...GLANCING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT

WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KS/WRN MO IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL

CONVERGENCE OVERLAPPING THE THERMAL/MOIST AXES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT

FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY

UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND

EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KT /PER MODIFIED 18Z SHV RAOB/...SUPERCELL

EVOLUTION IS QUITE LIKELY WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL

/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE W/SWLY

LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL MAINTAIN

LARGE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR/LA.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

post-32-0-70750200-1306349607.gif

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the 3 SUPS on that retreating WF/OFB northwest of STL could mean big trouble

yep...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

207 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JONESBURG...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF

WARRENTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

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I have my four wheeler helmets out ;) and the safe room open! Unbelievable in our region - many schools closings, shelters opening, businesses are closing early, parents pulling kids from school - honestly never seen anything to this degree in my region. Outside of snowstorms, of course.

It's good to hear. Smart people in your town.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...370... VALID 251932Z - 252030Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369...370...CONTINUES. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE RETREATING SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VORTICITY ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY AIDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO HINTS AT A WEAK SURFACE MESOLOW NEAR COU...CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STORMS NOW OVER AUDRAIN/MONTGOMERY/LINCOLN COUNTIES MO ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ROTATION WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST IN THIS ZONE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DISCRETE STORMS FORM TO THE SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE RETREATING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE STL METRO AREA. ..HART.. 05/25/2011

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I have my four wheeler helmets out ;) and the safe room open! Unbelievable in our region - many schools closings, shelters opening, businesses are closing early, parents pulling kids from school - honestly never seen anything to this degree in my region. Outside of snowstorms, of course.

After April 14, 15, 16, 19, 27... and then Sunday and yesterday.... everybody is very storm anxious, even if they haven't had their first tornado warning of the season. I know you'll agree... you guys probably wouldn't see that kind of reaction there, even in a High Risk... to this degree, had all these other days not happened.

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Montgomery City [Montgomery Co, MO] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 02:25 PM CDT -- trees and power lines down along with unknown structural damage near the intersection of missouri highways v and f. the storm was moving toward bellflower. homes damaged near highways 161 and t.

Looks like Bowling Green, MO and Louisiana, MO are next in line?

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SOUTH of STL..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF POTOSI...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT

35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

POTOSI...DE SOTO...MINERAL POINT...OLD MINES...RICHWOODS...OLYMPIAN

VILLAGE...FRANKCLAY...CADET...BLACKWELL...VALLES MILL AND FLETCHER.

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