Mallow Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Rules are in the following thread: Normally, I am going to make forecasts due by the end of the day on the second-to-last day of the month, but since this month was started late, forecasts are due by 11:59 PM EDT, Wednesday, June 1st. I need a forecast for June's storms, canes, and majors, as well as your guess for the seasonal total storms, canes, and majors. The breakdown of points available this month (out of a total potential of 1000 for each variable for all seven months) are as follows... POINTS AVAILABLE FOR JUNE MONTHLY Storms: 92 Canes: 45 Majors: 45 SEASONAL Storms: 271 Canes: 261 Majors: 267 Remember, you can format your forecast to the nearest tenth (so you can, for example, forecast 5.3 hurricanes). I encourage you to copy and paste the format below to make your forecast. JUNE Monthly: S/C/M Seasonal: S/C/M Averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 June:1/0/0 Seasonal:14/7/4 Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 JUNE Monthly: 1/0/0 Seasonal: 16/9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 JUNE Monthly: 0.5/0/0 Seasonal: 15/8/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 .7/.5/.1 14.9/7.7/3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 June 0.9/ 0.2 / 0.0 Season 16/ 9.1 / 4.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Let's get this party started! 1/0.5 /0 14/8/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 June 2/1/0 Season 18/10/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 June 1/0/0 Season 15/7/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 June: 1/0/0 Season: 14/7/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 JUNE Monthly: 1/0/0 Seasonal: 15/9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 June: 0.8/0.1/0 Seasonal 16.7/9.4/4.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Bump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Mallow..., Im confused on how some forecasts have decimals. How can you get 5.3 hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Mallow..., Im confused on how some forecasts have decimals. How can you get 5.3 hurricanes? i suppose its for tiebreakers. might be better to use number of hurricane days for that. june 1/0/0 season 13/8/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 i suppose its for tiebreakers. might be better to use number of hurricane days for that. june 1/0/0 season 13/8/4 LC have numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanBelles Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 JUNE Monthly: 1.5/.5/0 Seasonal: 15/8/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 LC have numbers? not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Mallow..., Im confused on how some forecasts have decimals. How can you get 5.3 hurricanes? i suppose its for tiebreakers. might be better to use number of hurricane days for that. june 1/0/0 season 13/8/4 No. It's all in the rules. For strategic reasons, you can give a forecast to the nearest tenth. Obviously, verification will be in whole numbers, but tenths can still be statistically advantageous in cases where you're split between two possible whole-number guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 June: 1.6/0.4/0 Season: 16/10/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I've never had a problem with decimal forecast to play the odds for the overall forecast at the end verses trying to score a coop with the exact forecast. XD However this goes back the two semester worth of forecasting contest in my forecasting classes during my time at Penn State. We used a probabilistic based forecast system though in which we put down our confidence in categorical potential values verses laying down a deterministic forecast... Example in how it would relate to tropical forecast.. (It was graded using a Root Mean squared deviation summation formula... where the lower the the sum of square deviations then the higher the score was ) Threfore a perfect forecast (but risky one.. ) would yield a deviation of 0. Where you forecast a 100 percent (1 ) chance of this number happening and it actually verifies. Conversely if you get it wrong..and you did not forecast any probably for the category that actually verified. (say 2 storms form and june... and you said that there was no chance for 2 storms to form in june. Your forcast of 0 percent chance for 2 storms to form would yield a value of 1 for that particular form. (1-0)^2 = 1 You want this value to be 0 XD more relastic case... For june say this is your probabilistic forecast 0 0.1 0 1 0.8 1 2 0.1 0 (0 - 0.1 ) ^2 + (0.8-1) ^ 2 + (0 - 0.1) ^ 2 = (0.01 + 0.04+0.01) = 0.06 Not a perfect score but very close to one. XD Example table..... w/o verifying... There are three categories so you would sum each score in each category... to get the total score for the month.. XD The lower the score the better in this case. ;;; So in summary... I see no issues with decimal forecasts.... ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 June 2/1/0 Season 17/11/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 I've never had a problem with decimal forecast to play the odds for the overall forecast at the end verses trying to score a coop with the exact forecast. XD However this goes back the two semester worth of forecasting contest in my forecasting classes during my time at Penn State. We used a probabilistic based forecast system though in which we put down our confidence in categorical potential values verses laying down a deterministic forecast... Example in how it would relate to tropical forecast.. (It was graded using a Root Mean squared deviation summation formula... where the lower the the sum of square deviations then the higher the score was ) Threfore a perfect forecast (but risky one.. ) would yield a deviation of 0. Where you forecast a 100 percent (1 ) chance of this number happening and it actually verifies. Conversely if you get it wrong..and you did not forecast any probably for the category that actually verified. (say 2 storms form and june... and you said that there was no chance for 2 storms to form in june. Your forcast of 0 percent chance for 2 storms to form would yield a value of 1 for that particular form. (1-0)^2 = 1 You want this value to be 0 XD more relastic case... For june say this is your probabilistic forecast 0 0.1 0 1 0.8 1 2 0.1 0 (0 - 0.1 ) ^2 + (0.8-1) ^ 2 + (0 - 0.1) ^ 2 = (0.01 + 0.04+0.01) = 0.06 Not a perfect score but very close to one. XD Example table..... w/o verifying... There are three categories so you would sum each score in each category... to get the total score for the month.. XD The lower the score the better in this case. ;;; So in summary... I see no issues with decimal forecasts.... ..... Cool! The main thing I don't like about it is that it's tough to convert the RMSE value to a meaningful value that has a "max score", and where a higher score equals a better forecast. It's much easier with z-scores, since you can assume a normal distribution and convert to a percentile (which fits both criteria). Also, I doubt people want to put in sixty forecasts (even if a lot of them are zero ) for each month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Cool! The main thing I don't like about it is that it's tough to convert the RMSE value to a meaningful value that has a "max score", and where a higher score equals a better forecast. It's much easier with z-scores, since you can assume a normal distribution and convert to a percentile (which fits both criteria). Also, I doubt people want to put in sixty forecasts (even if a lot of them are zero ) for each month. Lol :XD 0's ftw! And I don't see why everything has to be "higher number" = better mentality.... but that's only because I pretty much got hooked on the RMSE method on scoring probability based forecast. ;;; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 June ... 1/0/0 Season ... 12/6/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 June: 2/1/0 Season: 16/9/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Lol :XD 0's ftw! And I don't see why everything has to be "higher number" = better mentality.... but that's only because I pretty much got hooked on the RMSE method on scoring probability based forecast. ;;; It doesn't really matter, of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bronxx Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 June 0/ 0 /0 Season 13 /8 /4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Bump again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 June: 1/0/0 Season: 14/8/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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