aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 You want to get the mid-level center to slide south of you or at the very least, nearly on top of you. If it starts its descent later, then there's a good chance the ML center goes across PA and exits the coast north of you leaving you with the dreaded "drying up E of the Mts" type clipper. Thanks for answering my general banter type question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1954Dodge Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think this storm could actually come up the coast, crazier things have happened. Take a look at the JMA model for this time period its doing some odd stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I think this storm could actually come up the coast, crazier things have happened. Take a look at the JMA model for this time period its doing some odd stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'll play it ultra-safe and call for T @ DCA (okay, I'm being a bit bullish on this one...) an over-measured inch and a half @ BWI, and at two inches flat, and ftw, two inches over @ IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I'll play it ultra-safe and call for T @ DCA (okay, I'm being a bit bullish on this one...) an over-measured inch and a half @ BWI, and at two inches flat, and ftw, two inches over @ IAD. Why does BWI (farther north) get so much more than DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 because the people at DCA dont know how to measure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 because the people at DCA dont know how to measure snow. Right on the nose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 my wishcasting seems to have hurt the 0z model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Because the good measurement-takers at DCA despise snow and despise accurate measurements; and they therefore measure snow on a heated plate treated with salt every hour...okay! kidding! Seriously though they predictably, reliably, frustratingly bring up the rear in snowfall totals in the Great Washington/Baltimore area. Some of it is a localized climate, I'm sure, but some of it is inexplicable and geographically inexplicable: in numerous storms the immediate stations and citizen reporting on the north, south, east and west sides of DCA produce bigger totals- sometimes significant discrepancies within a very short geographic range. . Even so with BWI in the position it is I would think that DCA would beat them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Sorry to get so off topic, but check out the mess of traffic on the webcams from 1-90 in Buffalo, especially near Cheektowaga and airport, where the Nation Weather Service just upped predictions for overnight LES to 2 to 3 feet... My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Sorry to get so off topic, but check out the mess of traffic on the webcams from 1-90 in Buffalo, especially near Cheektowaga and airport, where the Nation Weather Service just upped predictions for overnight LES to 2 to 3 feet... My link Those commuters should be home with a hot cup of cocoa savoring the sweet winter weather. What's wrong with them up there...if I had to live my normal life when it snows 2-3 feet I wouldn't like snow as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ive got to admit, looking at the GFS, its not promising for DC. This thing looks like the clipper last year that hit the blue ridge, had all of the moisture forced out over the mountains, and left everyone East with flurries does it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 bust Since when does RIC get screwed by the SE trend. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This is going to be a good test of these models and their accuracy 72 - 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Officially bail on this event. On to the next event...only 10 days away!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ive got to admit, looking at the GFS, its not promising for DC. This thing looks like the clipper last year that hit the blue ridge, had all of the moisture forced out over the mountains, and left everyone East with flurries does it not? The GFS hasn't been nearly as bullish about this clipper compared to the NAM on any of the runs. We're all latching onto the NAM at this point (and trying to ignore the GFS) since it was showing something for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Officially bail on this event. On to the next event...only 10 days away!!! I wrote a cwg piece yesterday that ran out of steam when I saw the 00Z nam. I'm not sure Jason will even want to use it. Looks like a dry pattern for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 la nina sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Quick question: does anyone think that we might be entering a period of long-term negative NAO regime, and that this might work in our favor by shifting the storm track south (i.e., Miller Bs plunge into Kentucky/Tennessee instead of Ohio, and redevelop off the Carolina coast instead of the VA Capes or further north/more potential for the development of Miller As especially if the Pacific is conducive to a southern stream; or the displaced track means more "cold" storms, fewer storms that mean having to contend with WAA, etc. *DC/Baltimore hasn't had a significant threat of mixed precipitation in our big events going back to 3/1/2009*)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 la nina sucks amen, going to be a short winter, maybe snowless??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 amen, going to be a short winter, maybe snowless??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Good grief at the crying going on here. Don't give up yet. Even on this one. We might get a little snow out of it. It's still 2.5-3 days away. Even if we don't it's not like its March 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I wonder if 12/24/1999 is a good analog. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1999/us1224.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I wonder if 12/24/1999 is a good analog. http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us1224.php No there was at least a bit of a high over the ST Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I will say IMBY - a little flurry action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I wonder if 12/24/1999 is a good analog. http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us1224.php That was 3 inches in Lynchburg---totally uncalled for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 That was 3 inches in Lynchburg---totally uncalled for. I agree, that post was out of line.... snow in Lynchburg, sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 don't know if it as posted or whether it even matters any more, but NOV QBO came in at 12.16 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I'm about to bail on December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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