k*** Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Dual moderate risks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I'm kind of iffy on the severe wx potential up here, most models I've looked at have shown the main threat taking place south of the I-696 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 There's a line trying to form from Mt. Pleasant down to Grand Rapids, and on down to Kalamazoo. This is occurring along the leading edge of the 2nd wave of cloudiness, so some destabilization may be able to take place in front of it...though the first line over SE Michigan currently may hamper destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The first line is trying to get its act together as well. Skies are darkening to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 66 Kg/m^2, down from 77 earlier, with max over Irving. 1.5 inch hail at the Ft Worth zoo 7 am balloon and 15Z RUC forecast sounding showing an LFC about 3 km, probably not a (major) tornado risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 As always the line splits/falls apart and I'm in the middle where it splits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Got a nice downpour here and some thunder. Hopefully that 2nd line of storms develops further to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Severe storms heading into Metro St Louis from the SW (I believe were using this thread for today and leaving the other one about Joplin right guys???) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Full sun here going about the past hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Not a bad storm. Decent winds. Blew through quick and its a mostly sunny sky. Usually there's more clouds behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Latest Smart Severe Analysis uploaded. At this hour showing the highest instability in and near the cities of Frederick, Ok - Wichita Fall, TX - Gutherie, OK - Mena, AR - Chanute, KS - to Dallas, TX. Current values have SFC CAPE's around 2529 to 3075 j/kg, 0-1KM SRH around 190 to 215 m/s, and 0-1KM Shear values of 35-42 knots. Seeing convective gust potential of up to 70 knots and hail size of 2.8" in diameter. Analysis available http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Storms starting to fire here in the Elkhart area to my north and east. Good potential for wind damage today especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Not good... Tor warns in S. MO and AR from SGF already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Am I the only one who's wondering why WW 342 is out for areas north of Detroit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 121 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN MOULTRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT. * AT 118 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARLINVILLE TO TAYLOR SPRINGS TO BEAVER CREEK...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. AT 84 MPH WIND WAS REPORTED AT ALTON AIRPORT WITH THESE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Not good... Tor warns in S. MO and AR from SGF already. I am concerned that 0-1km helicity is already up to 250-300 in the general area of those storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Widespread wind damage and power outages across the STL metro from this line of storms that blew through, the strongest will go just to my north, however new cells developing rapidly over SW Illinois that have a bee-line for the Flora area... skies darkening quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Perhaps the first line that came through will prevent this second line from expanding northward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 It starts raining at a pretty good clip as soon as I leave my school and walk to my car, and settles down 10 seconds later when I'm safe in my car. Don't know what to think about the rest of the day for SEMI. HRRR doesn't show much, but then again its been pretty awful lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 TOR watch up, almost all of western/central OK, details inc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Second round just went through and the sun is out again. Not going to get anything impressive this way. Always next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Eastern moderate risk dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Probs on the latest watch.... higher than I expected Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (50%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Environment Canada just issued a 180 mile long severe thunderstorm warning from Georgian Bay to the Ohio border. That's wider than Michigan. Really puts there dodgy warnings into perspective when you compare its size to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Huge towers all around me outside. Somethings gotta give... Also that's some messy messy looking convection down by Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Wow, was this my event or not. I got hit by the intial round midday/early afternoon t'storms with gusty winds and torrential downpours, then we had partly cloudy skies for two hours, then I was brushed by a heavy rain shower, then the sun came out again. Now a severe thunderstorm is headed my way. I honestly thoguht it would miss me to the south, but it found a way here. Storm's about over now, but wind gusts were easily 60 MPH with some hail mixed in. It was literally like a hurricane outside for some time. The poewr even went in and out briefly. This is MY type of weather for sure!!! Thanks mother nature!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 One thing I can say about the severe round of storms is it got noticably warmer just before they arrived. It was still a bit coolish outside from the storms earlier for most of the time due to outflow effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Environment Canada just issued a 180 mile long severe thunderstorm warning from Georgian Bay to the Ohio border. That's wider than Michigan. Really puts there dodgy warnings into perspective when you compare its size to something I use NWS and the only part of Env Canada I utilize is the Exeter radar to follow severe weather in this area. Their forecasting and the accuracy and timeliness of severe weather info, is in my opinion, sketchy at best. Scary to think about actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 This just in Small funnel seen north of Arapaho, Ok by Chritopher Collura and a funnel seen south of Arapaho by Vern Carlson,Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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