Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Nothing severe about the wx today. Strongly disagree, Dave. I'm in Calverton, MD right now and we have some severe fair weather. Pretty insane stuff - a bit of a breeze and some sun mixed with clouds. Not sure the office building can take much more of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 major sunnado here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Strongly disagree, Dave. I'm in Calverton, MD right now and we have some severe fair weather. Pretty insane stuff - a bit of a breeze and some sun mixed with clouds. Not sure the office building can take much more of this. Be vigilant K man, take proper pre caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Be vigilant K man, take proper pre caution I managed to escape sunburn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Looks like a good day today for the northwestern parts of the region, with a severe risk mostly west of I-95 locally. LCLs will be somewhat of a concern, with air seemingly better the further north/west you go. Southern PA looked good to me yesterday, and now it's looking even better today. Should be a good chase target. An interesting excerpt from this morning's SPC discussion: ...INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC TO WRN NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD OVER THIS REGION...IN ENVIRONMENT OF MOST ROBUST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF MID-UPPER PERTURBATION. CONSIDERING UPSTREAM MOISTURE NOW OBSERVED...SOME MODELS -- E.G. A COUPLE OF SREF MEMBERS ALONG WITH ETA-KF AND ITS FCST SOUNDINGS -- APPEAR OVERDONE IN DEVELOPING UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS NRN NY. STILL...STRONGER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MID-60S DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN PA AND WRN/NRN NY S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. THIS...IN TANDEM WITH FAVORABLY STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC HEATING...MAY YIELD 2000-3500 J/KG PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL EVOLUTION...SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES FOR ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE STORMS...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT AND 0-3 KM SRN 150-250 J/KG. LINEAR/BOW/LEWP MODES ARE EXPECTED...WITH RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Hatched hail area not too far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Looks like a good day today for the northwestern parts of the region, with a severe risk mostly west of I-95 locally. LCLs will be somewhat of a concern, with air seemingly better the further north/west you go. Southern PA looked good to me yesterday, and now it's looking even better today. Should be a good chase target. An interesting excerpt from this morning's SPC discussion: ...INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC TO WRN NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD OVER THIS REGION...IN ENVIRONMENT OF MOST ROBUST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF MID-UPPER PERTURBATION. CONSIDERING UPSTREAM MOISTURE NOW OBSERVED...SOME MODELS -- E.G. A COUPLE OF SREF MEMBERS ALONG WITH ETA-KF AND ITS FCST SOUNDINGS -- APPEAR OVERDONE IN DEVELOPING UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS NRN NY. STILL...STRONGER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN MID-60S DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN PA AND WRN/NRN NY S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. THIS...IN TANDEM WITH FAVORABLY STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC HEATING...MAY YIELD 2000-3500 J/KG PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL EVOLUTION...SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES FOR ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE STORMS...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT AND 0-3 KM SRN 150-250 J/KG. LINEAR/BOW/LEWP MODES ARE EXPECTED...WITH RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS. I'm heading out to western PA today then slowly working east. I would not doubt seeing a moderate risk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 I'm heading out to western PA today then slowly working east. I would not doubt seeing a moderate risk today. We might be able to squeak out a Mod. Risk in PA... Enjoy the mountains! I'll be trying to avoid them the best I can... hopefully getting storms S/E of I-81. Better parameters are setting up in central/eastern PA according to the latest models, though initiation may be a concern as you get further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 DC fringed as usual lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Impressive for a day that won't be a big deal around here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 And how do we feel about tomorrow? (says the person with a late-afternoon flight out of IAD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 we might as well shut this thread down... its not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 we might as well shut this thread down... its not happening. Negative nancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Negative nancy. I am the Ji of summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I am the Ji of summer. Not good territory, Katie lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Not good territory, Katie lol. I won't be nearly as bad, I promise. to the subtitle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Well the 12z KIAD sounding was interesting... 3500 SBCAPE at 11 AM and ML Lapse Rates 7.5C/KM to 8 C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Well the 12z KIAD sounding was interesting... Indeed, Roanoke and Wallops showing similar, though less amplified, so I can't even call it a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Indeed, Roanoke and Wallops showing similar, though less amplified, so I can't even call it a fluke If we do get any storms today.. I am expecting large hail to be the main threat here.. if we get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 BWI 83/71. Juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Don't see this everyday around here with the hail parameters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Lee trough enough to get silly with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 It is quite muggy out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Well the 12z KIAD sounding was interesting... 3500 SBCAPE at 11 AM and ML Lapse Rates 7.5C/KM to 8 C/KM Looks really impressive for a fringe day lol Also hail is definitely the main threat looking at SPC hatched area. Indeed, Roanoke and Wallops showing similar, though less amplified, so I can't even call it a fluke Thoughts? - Think we should still not expect much. It is quite muggy out Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Kind of funny that the best hail mesoanalysis parameters are down on top of us rather than in the hatched risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Thanks You're welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Latest HRRR is brutal... brings some really good storms so close to I-95 but then they go due NE... Good lord... SBCAPE over 4000 in parts of northern MD... LI's -6 to -8 across the region... bright sunshine... upper 80s across the region... dews in the mid 70s... and its only NOON. If I didn't know any better, I'd think today was going to be an epic SVR day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Latest HRRR is brutal... brings some really good storms so close to I-95 but then they go due NE... I approve of what's being shown at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado watch coming by 2pm for areas north of us in PA/NY. Discussion mentions potential for iso tornadoes and "very large hail" http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0979.html - I wonder if we will get a watch. HB on his live chat on Livestream says we still are capped around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Kind of funny that the best hail mesoanalysis parameters are down on top of us rather than in the hatched risk area. parameters can lead astray.. just watch yoda post over the course of a few mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.