mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Clearing taking place to my N/NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 We got a nice funnel/possible tornado (we called in the circulation... only reason why it got TOR warned!). Condensation funnel was down to about the top of the tree line, but can't 100% confirm a tornado yet since it was behind the tree line. Video coming soon. Slept 3 hours in the car and now I'm at work. nice. im hoping to be the only person in america who doesnt see a tornado this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Clearing nicely in BMore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Sunshine in suitland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Bright sunshine in Bowie... definitely feels sticky out there... temps in mid 70s with dews near 70 all over the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1. It's MO/KY/TN... not exactly what one would call good chase territory. No way would I travel THAT far to go chase in the mountains and wooded areas. I can do that here. 2. I work Mon-Fri. To #`1, tell that to the people in Joplin, MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Could be.. maybe... if? Updated morning AFD from LWX .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --THERE ARE A LOT OF IF/S IN TAFTN/S FCST. CONVECTIVE TEMP FM THE 12Z LWX RAOB 87F. THE BATCH OF SHRA THAT CAME THRU ERLR THIS MRNG HAS LEFT CLDS IN ITS WAKE...THAT ARE BGNG TO BURN OFF. THIS WL HINDER WARMING A LTL...BUT SNDG SHOWS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL TO WARM UP QUICKLY. THAT MID LVL WARMTH MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM THO...AS THAT MEANS LAPSE RATES NOT ALL THAT STEEP. SO...AM UNCERTAIN IF WE/LL REACH THE MAXT NEEDED. LAMP SUGESTS WE/LL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE. THAT AREA S OF CJR HAS BEEN SUNNY ALL MRNG. THERE/S AN MCS IN ERN KY MVG ELY IN THE RATHER FAST WLY FLOW. XPCT THIS AREA TO PROPAGATE CLOSE TO SHD/CHO BY MIDDAY. THE RNK RAOB HAS A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 78F...WHICH WL EASILY BE ATTAINED. AN OUTFLOW FM THAT CLUSTER MAY PROVIDE THE NCSRY TRIGGER/FOCUS...AS AREA WL BE MORE PRIMED. NEXT ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A SFC BNDRY /CDFNT DROPPING S BUT STILL ACRS THE LWR GRTLKS/...OR WELL DEFINED S/WV. AM THINKING THAT THE ABSENCE OF SUCH FORCING WL LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY CNVCTN. DONT BELIEVE FNT WL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO CWFA...BUT GDNC SUGGESTING A LEE TROF MAY DVLP TAFTN. IF ORGANIZED CNVCTN CAN OVERCOME THESE HURDLES AND DVLP...AMS WL BE PLENTY UNSTBL TO SUPPORT IT. PRIMARY MODES WUD BE DOWNBURSTS WNDS/HAIL. ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLGT RISK SVR. WL LEAVE THAT IN THE HWO. HWVR...DONT HV THE CONFIDENCE IN WHEN/WHERE ATTM TO ENHANCE WORDING. IN FACT...HV SCALED POPS BACK CONSIDERING MAXT DOESNT REALLY REACH CONVECTIVE TEMP. SINCE LTST LAMP SUPPORT GOING MAXT GRID...HV NOT ADJUSTED ANY TEMPS/DEWPTS ATTM.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 To #`1, tell that to the people in Joplin, MO i dont think that was his point.. on a day like sunday im sure any chasers in the KS/OK region would have tried for that cell but it's not really where they'd choose to chase as the terrain starts to suck in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Sunshine in suitland. Confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 To #`1, tell that to the people in Joplin, MO Okay I'll let you make the drive out to western TN/KY/MO then. ----- Western TN/eastern AR isn't that bad... when Jason, Ian and I went out the first day we looked around for storms in that area. If it wasn't so long of a drive, it'd be a fine place. However, since it is 12 hours from here to Memphis, I won't be going back anytime soon. I can also imagine the river system mucking up the chase a bit (since 5-10 miles is a long way to go in a chase if you need to run away from the storm to find a bridge). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Okay I'll let you make the drive out to western TN/KY/MO then. ----- Western TN/eastern AR isn't that bad... when Jason, Ian and I went out the first day we looked around for storms in that area. If it wasn't so long of a drive, it'd be a fine place. However, since it is 12 hours from here to Memphis, I won't be going back anytime soon. I can also imagine the river system mucking up the chase a bit (since 5-10 miles is a long way to go in a chase if you need to run away from the storm to find a bridge). No need for me to make the drive out there, Ive been out there. Plenty of Tornado's happen out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 No need for me to make the drive out there, Ive been out there. Plenty of Tornado's happen out there. So... what's your argument? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 So... what's your argument? Who's arguing? Im just discussing the topic. You said MO/TN/KY isnt a great area to chase. when in fact it is a fine area to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Who's arguing? Im just discussing the topic. You said MO/TN/KY isnt a great area to chase. when in fact it is a fine area to chase. It's no central/western KS/OK/TX, though. Visibility is a good deal lower in most parts of MO/TN/KY. If I'm going to bother going that far west, I might as well go for the best chase area possible in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Who's arguing? Im just discussing the topic. You said MO/TN/KY isnt a great area to chase. when in fact it is a fine area to chase. Dave, He's not saying that there are no tornadoes there, but that the tree cover, hilly terrain, and poor road network make it a poor place to chase tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 To get back on topic: HRRR still showing scattered crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 To get back on topic: HRRR still showing scattered crap. How is the forecast for Sickman's bathroom "back on topic"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 On another note, temps have gone up almost 10 degrees in the last 1.5hrs mostly low 80s now w/ dews in the mid-upper 60s... low-level lapse rates are 7-7.5, SBCAPE is near 1000 in most areas and effective shear is 40-45kts... Its definitely feeling like a good storm day out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 How is the forecast for Sickman's bathroom "back on topic"? At least you can make a water cyclone when you're done Insane sig tors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 How is the forecast for Sickman's bathroom "back on topic"? Good point. I suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 At least you can make a water cyclone when you're done Insane sig tors! I don't want to see that debris ball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 12Z LWX ARW and 12Z NAM have nothing locally this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 12Z LWX ARW and 12Z NAM have nothing locally this afternoon. The finally updated WRF-NMM had nothing either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Impressive storm down in Huff land. Keeps looking like it wants to spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Well STW till 8 mainly along a line from Harrisonburg to Culpepper to LaPlata and south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I hate our weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks like we are getting close to convective temp... its 84/85 at BWI at 2 PM...83 at KIAD... 86 at DCA... 87 at EZF... 90 at Culpepper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks like we are getting close to convective temp... its 84/85 at BWI at 2 PM...83 at KIAD... 86 at DCA... 87 at EZF... 90 at Culpepper Isn't it 87? Or at lease that's what it was at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Isn't it 87? Or at lease that's what it was at IAD. I am guessing that is what it was there.. dunno about other places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I see a storm trying to form in Frederick County VA... so maybe we get in the action as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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