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May 23-27 Severe Weather Obs/Disc.


Ellinwood

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We got a nice funnel/possible tornado (we called in the circulation... only reason why it got TOR warned!). Condensation funnel was down to about the top of the tree line, but can't 100% confirm a tornado yet since it was behind the tree line. Video coming soon. Slept 3 hours in the car and now I'm at work.

nice. im hoping to be the only person in america who doesnt see a tornado this year.

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Could be.. maybe... if? Updated morning AFD from LWX

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --THERE ARE A LOT OF IF/S IN TAFTN/S FCST. CONVECTIVE TEMP FM THE

12Z LWX RAOB 87F. THE BATCH OF SHRA THAT CAME THRU ERLR THIS MRNG

HAS LEFT CLDS IN ITS WAKE...THAT ARE BGNG TO BURN OFF. THIS WL

HINDER WARMING A LTL...BUT SNDG SHOWS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL TO WARM

UP QUICKLY. THAT MID LVL WARMTH MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM THO...AS THAT

MEANS LAPSE RATES NOT ALL THAT STEEP. SO...AM UNCERTAIN IF WE/LL

REACH THE MAXT NEEDED. LAMP SUGESTS WE/LL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

THAT AREA S OF CJR HAS BEEN SUNNY ALL MRNG. THERE/S AN MCS IN ERN

KY MVG ELY IN THE RATHER FAST WLY FLOW. XPCT THIS AREA TO

PROPAGATE CLOSE TO SHD/CHO BY MIDDAY. THE RNK RAOB HAS A

CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 78F...WHICH WL EASILY BE ATTAINED. AN OUTFLOW

FM THAT CLUSTER MAY PROVIDE THE NCSRY TRIGGER/FOCUS...AS AREA WL

BE MORE PRIMED.

NEXT ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A SFC BNDRY /CDFNT DROPPING S BUT STILL

ACRS THE LWR GRTLKS/...OR WELL DEFINED S/WV. AM THINKING THAT THE

ABSENCE OF SUCH FORCING WL LEAD TO MORE SPOTTY CNVCTN. DONT

BELIEVE FNT WL ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO CWFA...BUT GDNC SUGGESTING A

LEE TROF MAY DVLP TAFTN.

IF ORGANIZED CNVCTN CAN OVERCOME THESE HURDLES AND DVLP...AMS WL

BE PLENTY UNSTBL TO SUPPORT IT. PRIMARY MODES WUD BE DOWNBURSTS

WNDS/HAIL. ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLGT RISK SVR. WL LEAVE THAT

IN THE HWO. HWVR...DONT HV THE CONFIDENCE IN WHEN/WHERE ATTM TO

ENHANCE WORDING. IN FACT...HV SCALED POPS BACK CONSIDERING MAXT

DOESNT REALLY REACH CONVECTIVE TEMP.

SINCE LTST LAMP SUPPORT GOING MAXT GRID...HV NOT ADJUSTED ANY

TEMPS/DEWPTS ATTM.-- End Changed Discussion --

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To #`1, tell that to the people in Joplin, MO

i dont think that was his point.. on a day like sunday im sure any chasers in the KS/OK region would have tried for that cell but it's not really where they'd choose to chase as the terrain starts to suck in that area.

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To #`1, tell that to the people in Joplin, MO

Okay I'll let you make the drive out to western TN/KY/MO then.

-----

Western TN/eastern AR isn't that bad... when Jason, Ian and I went out the first day we looked around for storms in that area. If it wasn't so long of a drive, it'd be a fine place. However, since it is 12 hours from here to Memphis, I won't be going back anytime soon. I can also imagine the river system mucking up the chase a bit (since 5-10 miles is a long way to go in a chase if you need to run away from the storm to find a bridge).

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Okay I'll let you make the drive out to western TN/KY/MO then.

-----

Western TN/eastern AR isn't that bad... when Jason, Ian and I went out the first day we looked around for storms in that area. If it wasn't so long of a drive, it'd be a fine place. However, since it is 12 hours from here to Memphis, I won't be going back anytime soon. I can also imagine the river system mucking up the chase a bit (since 5-10 miles is a long way to go in a chase if you need to run away from the storm to find a bridge).

No need for me to make the drive out there, Ive been out there. Plenty of Tornado's happen out there.

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Who's arguing? Im just discussing the topic. You said MO/TN/KY isnt a great area to chase. when in fact it is a fine area to chase.

It's no central/western KS/OK/TX, though. Visibility is a good deal lower in most parts of MO/TN/KY. If I'm going to bother going that far west, I might as well go for the best chase area possible in the Plains.

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Who's arguing? Im just discussing the topic. You said MO/TN/KY isnt a great area to chase. when in fact it is a fine area to chase.

Dave,

He's not saying that there are no tornadoes there, but that the tree cover, hilly terrain, and poor road network make it a poor place to chase tornadoes.

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On another note, temps have gone up almost 10 degrees in the last 1.5hrs mostly low 80s now w/ dews in the mid-upper 60s... low-level lapse rates are 7-7.5, SBCAPE is near 1000 in most areas and effective shear is 40-45kts...

Its definitely feeling like a good storm day out there...

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