WinterWxLuvr Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Not sure if anyone cares, but another shot... Nice pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Big blob of storms coming in from Ohio and KY. They have the whole front line warned from northern OH clear down into WV and KY. I don't recall seeing that much of an continuous area warned before...and it's several counties deep. Lot of hail with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Big blob of storms coming in from Ohio and KY. They have the whole front line warned from northern OH clear down into WV and KY. I don't recall seeing that much of an continuous area warned before...and it's several counties deep. Lot of hail with these. question is, do they die before they get here... and how many hours off are they.... *EDIT* - HRRR says no to that blob affecting us east of the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 question is, do they die before they get here... and how many hours off are they.... Well they're on my back door step...they may die down as they head into the mtns. Lot of flashing and booming to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 actually.. looks like ellinwood and jason are on that torn warned cell in eastern nc. looks good on radar. We got a nice funnel/possible tornado (we called in the circulation... only reason why it got TOR warned!). Condensation funnel was down to about the top of the tree line, but can't 100% confirm a tornado yet since it was behind the tree line. Video coming soon. Slept 3 hours in the car and now I'm at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I got 0.79" of rain from yesterday and early this morning...highest wind gust of 25 mph from that line last night. It decreased in intensity as it got to my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Typical severe wx day setting up. Clouds this AM will take it's time to break up, which will hamper our chances, long enough to get 2 meh posts from ION. When things do get rockin' WarriorWood will coin toss to go N today, the DC split/corn dust barrier will occur, yoda's keyboard will melt from the heat of continuous CTRL C/CTRL V, mapgirl will hate the wx again and leesburg will get 2" of drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Typical severe wx day setting up. Clouds this AM will take it's time to break up, which will hamper our chances, long enough to get 2 meh posts from ION. When things do get rockin' WarriorWood will coin toss to go N today, the DC split/corn dust barrier will occur, yoda's keyboard will melt from the heat of continuous CTRL C/CTRL V, mapgirl will hate the wx again and leesburg will get 2" of drought. Today looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Today looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Typical severe wx day setting up. Clouds this AM will take it's time to break up, which will hamper our chances, long enough to get 2 meh posts from ION. When things do get rockin' WarriorWood will coin toss to go N today, the DC split/corn dust barrier will occur, yoda's keyboard will melt from the heat of continuous CTRL C/CTRL V, mapgirl will hate the wx again and leesburg will get 2" of drought. Sounds about right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Today looks like crap. You guys should start driving now and get in position for tomorrow....somewhere in eastern Missouri/western Kentucky/Tennessee, etc. looks to be good for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 You guys should start driving now and get in position for tomorrow....somewhere in eastern Missouri/western Kentucky/Tennessee, etc. looks to be good for tomorrow. lol. for two reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 lol. for two reasons. oh, c'mon. Chasing lil' storms around here will only get you so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 oh, c'mon. Chasing lil' storms around here will only get you so far. 1. It's MO/KY/TN... not exactly what one would call good chase territory. No way would I travel THAT far to go chase in the mountains and wooded areas. I can do that here. 2. I work Mon-Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1. It's MO/KY/TN... not exactly what one would call good chase territory. No way would I travel THAT far to go chase in the mountains and wooded areas. I can do that here. 2. I work Mon-Fri. Not saying you should go (and clearly you can't because of work schedule)...but western TN is pretty damn fine chase territory. Very few wooded areas and flat as a pancake, and plenty of roads gridded in a way to give you a shot to keep a good view of a developing storm. Anywhere west of Jackson, TN over to the Mississippi River is a good spot to catch something if conditions are right. In fact, wasn't it near Memphis that you guys got some pics from a tornado warned storm on your way west? That said, it is a 12-14 hour drive to get over there...so...not exactly something one does spur of the moment. Now, eastern TN? That is a hellish place to try and chase given the elevation and trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Southern half of VA/WV upped to 30% wind... vis sat looks mostly clear down there. Clouds and showers keeping NoVA/DC/MD in crappy air. Still don't know why SPC has the 2% TOR risk all the way around... The wind profiles are unidirectional and and do not support tornadic development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1300z update from SPC added a large 30% area to our south. No love for DC (still 15%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Southern half of VA/WV upped to 30% wind... vis sat looks mostly clear down there. Clouds and showers keeping NoVA/DC/MD in crappy air. Still don't know why SPC has the 2% TOR risk all the way around... The wind profiles are unidirectional and and do not support tornadic development. blanket probabilities to cover butts, probably. Any chance we clear out a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 10Z HRRR throws some messy crap our way 3-4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 One of Ellinwoods choice models is looking pretty bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 One of Ellinwoods choice models is looking pretty bullish Too bad it falls apart as it gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 12z KIAD sounding looks mildly interesting... SARS shows 11 loose matches in the supercell column with 36% TOR. Never really understood it though to be honest. ML Lapse rates were pretty high (7.0 C/KM) so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Too bad it falls apart as it gets closer Still seems to pack a punch - perhaps south of you though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 KML... check the time stamp The 24/00z never ran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 KML... check the time stamp The 24/00z never got run. I missed that too sweet - maybe we still have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 I missed that too sweet - maybe we still have a chance The HURRDURR (HRRR) keeps us out of the fun stuff... mostly just SCT showers and a few garden-variety storms. the better air to the south looks to get MCSed later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 KML... check the time stamp The 24/00z never ran. I haven't had my caffiene yet My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The HURRDRR (HRRR) keeps us out of the fun stuff... mostly just SCT showers and a few garden-variety storms. the better air to the south looks to get MCSed later today. Lets hope the modeling or the forecast is horribly wrong and we break out into full sun within the next few hours Weenie thoughts FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The HURRDRR (HRRR) keeps us out of the fun stuff... mostly just SCT showers and a few garden-variety storms. the better air to the south looks to get MCSed later today. Hence me saying "crap" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 5pm for SE WV and the western half of VA: http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0354.html DISCUSSION...MCS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES E OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS MORNING. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S...STORMS SHOULD BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. BELT OF 50+ KT WLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL ENHANCE FORWARD SPEED OF SYSTEM WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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