caviman2201 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Maybe its just me, but the current line looks a lot weaker than the line the HRRR predicted for this timeframe... Hopefully they get going after they get over the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 dont look in pa Hah! Well, I didn't really want to chase up there in the mountains, anyway. My target kept me south of I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Maybe its just me, but the current line looks a lot weaker than the line the HRRR predicted for this timeframe... Hopefully they get going after they get over the mountains it's a marginal setup.. it could easily suck. the best dynamics are north and the best instability is south. we just gotta keep our fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 new stw winchester to loudoun and surrounds.. where be yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 spc brought the 5% torn back D.C. and south now Forbes just upped his Torcon to 4 in PA...didn't say anything about VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Popping in N. Balt and Harford counties near M-D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Forbes just upped his Torcon to 4 in PA...didn't say anything about VA based on the maps it's more a PA threat.. but usually the tail end of the line can produce as well. the cell moving toward loudoun is slightly interesting looking, some rotation at higher scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Nice looking DC Split there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Heads up Harrisburg PA in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Watch will be extended.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0899.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0340 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA/MD...NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338... VALID 232040Z - 232215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338 CONTINUES. WW 338 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 22Z. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN 21-22Z ALONG AND E OF ONGOING BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS FROM CNTRL PA INTO NRN VA. AS OF 2030Z...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS FROM CLINTON COUNTY PA TO MADISON COUNTY VA. DESPITE SOME RECENT WEAKENING NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF TSTM CELLS IN NRN VA...ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE ACROSS PA TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE SWD INTO NRN VA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. ..GRAMS.. 05/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Good steady downpour of rain going on up here now. The cell that was heading towards me dropped south. Looks like it will go into Montgomery county now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 loudoun cell is my pick for now. the culpeper cell might be the tiniest svr storm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I have a feeling I won't be seeing anything severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Loudon Cell needs a TW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 culpeper cell seems to be gaining strength.. one to watch if it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Loudon Cell needs a TW... doesnt look like much more than random rotation at the lower level so far.. only seen on a scan or two tho im using free radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Interesting action in Loudoun. Maybe some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 doesnt look like much more than random rotation at the lower level so far.. only seen on a scan or two tho im using free radar The Grlevel3 shows somewhat interesting velocity scan, but I'm not sure I know how to read it. A Friend in purcellville called and saying there are several "finger clouds" near her area. Not sure what to make of that... Edit: Wind shift to the WSW now... I guess thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Cu field looks nice down here... looks like some stuff may be popping to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Cell's popping.... we've got a visual on the cloud. Looks decent from here, but not terribly good (on the NE side, anyway). Feed is back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 If that stuff to the west get here late this evening look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Just got a severe shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Sweet...line collapses on my doorstep. Sprinkles inbound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Primer must be applied first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Yay strong thunderstorm heading my way, maybe it will be severe by the time it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 If that stuff to the west get here late this evening look out! good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Just got notice that the severe t-storm watch has been extended to 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Wet sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Wet sunshine Sign of the apocalypse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 well we shall try again tomorrow.. i think tomorrow will be better storm-wise and severe weather wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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