Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 for ellinwood THE MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETE MODE COULD FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN PORTIONS OF SRN VA/NRN NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 They removed the 30% for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0895.html AGITATED CU This part in that made me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 They removed the 30% for tomorrow Ya and they removed the mod last night for today but, it's back. I'm sure they will put it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 1800 SPC mesoanalysis -- SBCAPE 2000-2500 now... good 0-6km shear... good effective bulk shear. Hail parameters slowly increasing (better SW of DCA) MLCAPE 1000-1500. LI is -3 to -6. ML Lapse rates are meh... 6-6.5 C/KM. LL Lapse rates around 7.5C/KM. Sig TOR fixed layer is around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0895.html I like this for us RECENT HRRR RUNS REMAIN ADAMANT IN THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO WW 338. CONTINUED HEATING DOWNSTREAM INTO AND THROUGH THE 80S WILL RESULT IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT BASED ON A MODIFIED 16Z IAD RAOB. WITH 50 KT W/SWLYS AT 4 KM AGL SAMPLED IN FCX/LWX VWP DATA...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 This part in that made me lol if they dont hit me later i'll be agitated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I can see the watch being re-issued for MD south into NC... something like 3 till 10 PM... cause the 6pm watch will likely expire as the storms are ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I like this for us RECENT HRRR RUNS REMAIN ADAMANT IN THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO WW 338. CONTINUED HEATING DOWNSTREAM INTO AND THROUGH THE 80S WILL RESULT IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT BASED ON A MODIFIED 16Z IAD RAOB. WITH 50 KT W/SWLYS AT 4 KM AGL SAMPLED IN FCX/LWX VWP DATA...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. the nmm looks decent, though it kinda gets going right over the area. i dont think there will be any tornadoes today but we'll see. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_009l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 if they dont hit me later i'll be agitated I would have figured that the plains chasing would have put you in stage 6 of the 7 stages of grief, not stage 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I would have figured that the plains chasing would have put you in stage 6 of the 7 stages of grief, not stage 3. im just starting to get past my existential crisis -- let's not go there again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 the nmm looks decent, though it kinda gets going right over the area. i dont think there will be any tornadoes today but we'll see. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_009l.gif I can live without tornadoes, give me some decent T&L and hail and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Moving... slowly. Accident coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 AGITATED CU The CU near my house are anything but agitated. Fair weather cotton ball puffs with no vertical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Through and booking it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The CU near my house are anything but agitated. Fair weather cotton ball puffs with no vertical development. Is it the cap not budging? Or the forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Is it the cap not budging? Or the forcing? The CU would be above the cap. Likely the crappy mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The CU would be above the cap. Likely the crappy mid-level lapse rates. Based on the 16z IAD sounding and the obs around the area, the CU are definitely above the cap. I think we're just going to have to wait for the remnant storms from WVA to advect in and destabilize things locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 The CU would be above the cap. Likely the crappy mid-level lapse rates. They were at 6C/KM in DC and higher as you went south per 1800 SPC meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Storms finally firing in the WV panhandle and entering NoVa... Craven/Brooks above 30 for DC per latest meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Afternoon Disco from LWX as of 3:25 PM .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --CENTER OF MCV FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY EXITING THE OH VLY APPEARS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE UP NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER. THE SHORTWAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS JUST CROSSING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS OF 19Z. EARLIER ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCV NEVER MATERIALIZED FOR THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ROBUST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STILL VALIDATING THE NEED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338 WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BASED ON ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL CAP APPARENT IN SPECIAL 16Z RAOB WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...PARTICULARLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SBCAPE INCREASES EAST...LATEST RUC DEPICTING ABOUT 1500 J/KG FOR WEST OF THE SHEN VLY WHERE ACTIVITY IS...TO IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUPER-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND WIND. 0-1KM SR HELICITY OF 100 MEANS TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EAST...WITH A WINDOW OF NOW THROUGH 8PM. ONCE AGAIN...SHOULD IT BE NECESSARY THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 those cells are building nicely now, shuold roll on in next few hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 1900 SPC meso MLCAPE made a huge jump in the last few hrs.. now up to 2000... SBCAPE 2500-3000. LI's are -6+ east of the BR. Effective Bulk shear 45-50 kts. Supercell composite is 4 in N VA/C MD... Derecho composite has increased to 4 to 6. Craven is 40-60 east of the BR. ML Lapse rates are at 6.5 C/KM DCA and south with LL Lapse rates ~7.5C/KM. Sig hail 1.5 to 2" from BWI south, sort of paralleling I-95. Sig tor fixed layer is 1. BR = Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 342 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VALLEY HIGH...OR NEAR TIMBER RIDGE... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... VALLEY HIGH... GREENWOOD... INWOOD... MARTINSBURG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 yoda's warming up the pasting finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 yoda's warming up the pasting finger Ctrl A to Ctrl C to ALT/TAB to Ctrl V FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 spc brought the 5% torn back D.C. and south now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 the severe warned cell in WV is picking up in speed some.. and it seems to not be able to make up its mind between moving NE or E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Looks like we made the right choice! Looking @ 95 between RIC and the NC border... nice to see that the center of the 5% matches up with our thoughts. About another 45 min. in good traffic until we hit 295... about 1.5 hours away from the target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Looks like we made the right choice! Looking @ 95 between RIC and the NC border... nice to see that the center of the 5% matches up with our thoughts. About another 45 min. in good traffic until we hit 295... about 1.5 hours away from the target. dont look in pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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