Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 met fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I feel bad about starting this.. but also at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 clouds are bubbling here, but nohing impressive yet. not sure i like the progression of storms to the south so far. the eastern edge is too heavy and outflow is driving it east while the whole grouping is moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 met fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Alleghany County svr warned cell has hail to the size of half dollars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I will add to this that he is just now completing his freshman year and hasn't had a single met class of importance yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 ON THE NRN END OF THE LINE...SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR DANVILLE VA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE NNEWD TOWARD THE NRN EDGE OF WW 387 WHERE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STORMS ACROSS WW 387. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I will add to this that he is just now completing his freshman year and hasn't had a single met class of importance yet. Well, then he seems ahead of the curve. I've enjoyed seeing him provide his substantive forecasting thoughts. Come to think of it, you've been sounding a lot smarter since you got your read tag too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Lightning and loud thunder with some huge raindrops. Looks like something developing right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Lightning and loud thunder with some huge raindrops. Looks like something developing right over me. looks like a number of cells going up ahead of the main batch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 the nam was wet http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_012m.gif could be right.. rain out for the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 the nam was wet http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_012m.gif could be right.. rain out for the game? Wow that is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Wow that is wet. see how it survives heading into sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Area between Hanover, VA and CHO looks decent for development - the complex is heading into some decent instability right now. I think radar should light up a bit more with a bit more time. Wish SPC would put out a MD for our watch - seems overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Well, then he seems ahead of the curve. I've enjoyed seeing him provide his substantive forecasting thoughts. Come to think of it, you've been sounding a lot smarter since you got your read tag too! I'm learning everyday... and I enjoy doing so with out any other motivator other than the joy of understanding and learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Storm W of RIchmond looks pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Area between Hanover, VA and CHO looks decent for development - the complex is heading into some decent instability right now. I think radar should light up a bit more with a bit more time. Wish SPC would put out a MD for our watch - seems overdue. the forward edge looks decent but since they have not had many svr warnings to the south gotta wonder how much more luck we'll have up here coming out of peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Storm W of RIchmond looks pretty decent. old boundary gave it a kick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 im tempted to meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 old boundary gave it a kick Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Pretty cool seeing all these single cells pop up on the old outflow boundaries from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 533 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN MARYLAND... MINERAL COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 600 PM EDT * AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIDGELEY...OR NEAR CUMBERLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WOLFE MILL... PLEASANT VALLEY... FLINTSTONE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 ML Lapse rates are collapsing. If something substantial doesn't get going in the next hour it's just going to rain on everyone's parade Ian's Baseball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Well that MD was helpful MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0514 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY AND PA SWD INTO NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388... VALID 272214Z - 280015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388 CONTINUES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER CNTRL PA...WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM MD INTO SRN NY WITH UPPER WAVE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH HEATING AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...LENDING ITSELF TO VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPERCELLS NOW NOTED OVER PA...WITH MANY WELL DEFINED MESOCYCLONES. GIVEN INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS WELL AS MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IS HIGH. TORNADIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ISOLATED/BRIEF WITH 0-1 SRH ON THE ORDER OF 75-100 M2/S2. GIVEN CELLULAR STORM MODE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY AS HAIL...BUT MAY INCREASE IF STORMS BEGIN TO BOW WITH TIME. ..JEWELL.. 05/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 634 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUME TO 7 MILES WEST OF WARRENTON TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEALETON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HUME... WARRENTON... THE PLAINS... DELAPLANE... HAYMARKET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 640 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... KING GEORGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 635 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STAFFORD TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF POTOMAC CREEK...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... POTOMAC CREEK... AQUIA CREEK... STAFFORD... PORT TOBACCO RIVER... TRIANGLE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 642 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 MDC017-VAC047-061-099-153-177-179-630-272315- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110527T2315Z/ CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG VA-SPOTSYLVANIA VA-KING GEORGE VA-STAFFORD VA- CULPEPER VA-FAUQUIER VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-CHARLES MD- 642 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...AND CHARLES...PRINCE WILLIAM... FAUQUIER...CULPEPER...STAFFORD...KING GEORGE AND SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES... AT 640 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MASSAPONAX TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT ROYAL...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 645 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STAFFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MONTCLAIR... DUMFRIES... TRIANGLE... WOODBRIDGE... DALE CITY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 With the tor warning, the SRV shows some gust front rotation on the west side of Fredricksburg.. over all its not that impressive 30 kts gate to gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Looks like DCA may get rocked in about 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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