yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Well.. lets see how long ML Lapse Rates of 7.5 C/KM stick around per SPC meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 It's going to take me 6 yrs to drive to rochester tonight with if these storms come through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 It's going to take me 6 yrs to drive to rochester tonight with if these storms come through start now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 start now gotta wait for the wife to get out of work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Even though its not on the SPC site, I found this morning's LWX balloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Sort of low LCLs... maybe an isolated tor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I'll say we get a watch between 2-3 How about now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 050 WWUS30 KWNS 271652 SAW8 SPC AWW 271652 WW 388 SEVERE TSTM DC MD NY PA VA WV CW 271655Z - 280000Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 20S CHO/CHARLOTTESVILLE VA/ - 50NE ITH/ITHACA NY/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /51NE LYH - 22ESE SYR/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Darn the watch came early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 How about now? I think forecasting the opposite of your thoughts is the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Sort of low LCLs... maybe an isolated tor? LCL's increase along with the Planetary Boundary Layer, which increases in height during the day as dictated by the dry adiabatic lapse rate (~10°C/km) at a given height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I think forecasting the opposite of your thoughts is the way to go Well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 LCL's increase along with the Planetary Boundary Layer, which increases in height during the day as dictated by the dry adiabatic lapse rate (~10.5°C/km) at a given height. yeah, what you said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 yeah, what you said! In layman's terms.. As it gets hotter on the surface, the higher the LCL is going to get.. (most times) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 116 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A VERY WARM AIR MASS OVER THE AIR MASS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SVR TSTM WTCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. AM MOST CONCERNED ABT THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...PERHAPS FM I-81 TO I-95?...BASED ON ONGOING STORMS TOPPING 50K IN N CENTRAL NC WHICH APPEAR TO BE TRACKING IN A DIRECTION OF ABT 010. HRRR SHOWS THESE BCMG A PROBLEM IN NELSON ARND 20/21Z AND INTO THE DC AREA ARND 23Z. I am guessing this means LWX is concerned about the threat for large hail? As in greater than quarter size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 figures im going to the first nats game i've been to in 2 yrs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 figures im going to the first nats game i've been to in 2 yrs tonight I would rather drive nails with a hammer blindfolded than go to a Nats game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I would rather drive nails with a hammer blindfolded than go to a Nats game. yeah i hear ya.. my g/f just got a new job and boss gave her the corporate seats for tonight. should be worth a hotdog and wandering for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 the dry adiabatic lapse rate (~10.5°C/km) Since you're a meteorology student...PLEASE tell me that number was a typo. If not, I'd like to call your professors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Since you're a meteorology student...PLEASE tell me that number was a typo. If not, I'd like to call your professors. Yes, In the text book it is admittedly it is 9.8°C/Km... BUFKIT lies. Besides you can be super-adiabatic and even auto-convective near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I'm a little concerned that you thought the number was a typo when you should had recognized that the term (dry adibatic vs. superadibatic) was the typo. Since you're a meteorology student...PLEASE tell me that number was a typo. If not, I'd like to call your professors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 yeah i hear ya.. my g/f just got a new job and boss gave her the corporate seats for tonight. should be worth a hotdog and wandering for a bit. If you aren't excited about that, just leave them for me at will call. I love going to Nationals Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 HRRR has a party in DC around 0z.. has so for the past 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If you aren't excited about that, just leave them for me at will call. I love going to Nationals Park. im sure it will be fun (if it doesnt rain the whole time)... im just not a huge baseball fan as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 SBCAPE getting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 A little popper just north of Stafford heading towards the northern VA suburbs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I'm a little concerned that you thought the number was a typo when you should had recognized that the term (dry adibatic vs. superadibatic) was the typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The point was...don't pick on a student...recognize his/her error and teach him/her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The point was...don't pick on a student...recognize his/her error and teach him/her. Obviously sarcasm and friendly jesting comes across just as well on a message board as when someone types "dry adiabatic lapse rate" and means "superadiabatic". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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