yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 100 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... MORGAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA... FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 145 AM EDT * AT 1255 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLWOOD PIKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GREENWOOD... INWOOD... BERRYVILLE... MARTINSBURG... RANSON... CHARLES TOWN... NEERSVILLE... SHEPHERDSTOWN... WILLIAMSPORT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 lots of old outflow boundaries... maybe some focal points for tomorrow. NAM verbatim puts out 2800 CAPE at max heating. ML lapse rates look to be "meh" 6.5 to 7 °C/km. SPC holding back on expanding the slight risk area east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 today is kinda meh for those in the greater metro areas. Best areas still appear to be well west of the 95 corridor. If something does pop late this afternoon it could go severe, but it won't be widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Slight risk expanded in the 1300z outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 we might as well shut this thread down... its not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If we don't get any storms today, I will rage for mapgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If we don't get any storms today, I will rage for mapgirl we'll get storms.. go take a nap or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 If we don't get any storms today, I will rage for mapgirl Thanks - good know I won't be raging alone we'll get storms.. go take a nap or something Yeah? You think we will see something today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yeah? You think we will see something today? yes.. the trough is falling apart but we have better forcing today. the main issue might be timing... if it holds off too late it won't be terribly exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 yes.. the trough is falling apart but we have better forcing today. the main issue might be timing... if it holds off too late it won't be terribly exciting. If I don't get baseball sized hail I'll rage against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I don't know about today, but apparently I'm definately calling for storms on Saturday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I don't know about today, but apparently I'm definately calling for storms on Saturday.... dummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The main thing that is catching my eye this morning is the hodogrpahs that will be in place that will result in a setup much like we had yesterday out here in the Shenandoah Valley of individual cells oriented generally north to south and storm movement to the northeast. The gridded 6 hour flash flood guidance was under a 2 inches for a lot of areas out this way on the last run of the product (12z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 I'm gonna sleep through it all, so I'm not too worried about what happens today Jason tweeted that he might hit up local stuff if it forms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 meso up for southern area (and south) of slight risk http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0993.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1107 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...STRONGER SFC HEATING AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG. THE MAIN LIMITATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTN WILL BE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THEREFORE...ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ISO OR SCT IN COVERAGE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF SC/NC IN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I'll say we get a watch between 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 dummy Funny thing is, my template is for SUNday, so I conciously changed it to saturday, whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I'll say we get a watch between 2-3 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Funny thing is, my template is for SUNday, so I conciously changed it to saturday, whoops. i didnt even notice... but i wish you did thurs night regularly. editing time was like 1/3 of usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Meh left moving supercell composites got ya down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Meh Well played SPC... issue a MD just as I tell Ian meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...ERN PA...SE NY...WRN MA...SRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 271624Z - 271800Z A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN PA AND SE NY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WRN EDGE OF A MOIST AXIS LOCATED FROM ECNTRL VA NNEWD ACROSS MD INTO ERN PA ND SE NY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE IN NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THIS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND EXPAND NWWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIATION OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT NEWD STORM MOTIONS OF 35 TO 40 KT WHICH WILL AID THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH ANY LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY QUITE STEEP ACROSS THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2011 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 im back on fire this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 left moving supercell composites got ya down? Yes Yesterday was one of those where I wish we trigger/forcing... we probably would have been rocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yes Yesterday was one of those where I wish we trigger/forcing... we probably would have been rocked i think there are probably more days like that than you'd realize. unfortunately high parameters dont often overlap with good forcing etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 im back on fire this yr The drought was last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The drought was last year... last yr was tough.. and crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 i think there are probably more days like that than you'd realize. unfortunately high parameters dont often overlap with good forcing etc. Thats true... it just seemed like yesterday was one of those extreme days where everything looked good... but no forcing. We don't usually see MLCAPE above 3000 around here I don't believe very often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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