wxmeddler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Derecho composite 8-10 now 4000-4500 SBCAPE 3000 MLCAPE Dang initiation factors. We'll see somthing (either garden or splitting) by 6 PM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Has anyone heard of where Jason (mark with him?) is going? Spotter Network has them working their way N into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 It's a shame to be wasting all of this instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 1700z SPC mesoanalysis: Derecho composite 8-10 now 4000-4500 SBCAPE 3000 MLCAPE Left moving supercell -8 in NW VA LI is -10 LL Lapse Rates still around 7.5 C/KM ML Lapse Rates are nearing 8 C/KM Effective Bulk shear 30-35 kts Craven Brooks SigSvr 40-70 I don't think we will see some of these again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I don't think we will see some of these again Ever? That's what you said a few summers ago when we had CAPE values to like 5500 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Has anyone heard of where Jason (mark with him?) is going? Spotter Network has them working their way N into PA. Jason posted in the other severe thread about their chase today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The dew point fell pretty quickly when the wind picked up at noon. The air is much drier now, The sun was out warming it up nicely, now it's clouding up with some thundershowers approaching from the SW. The weekend forecast looks absolutely perfect here...warm and dry with 90s on Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 if activity to the west is intense enough it might help us out eventually but that could be late at this rate.. i'd lean more toward sunset/post if there is any activity around here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Ever? That's what you said a few summers ago when we had CAPE values to like 5500 lol Mainly the ML Lapse Rates... we haven't had 8 C/KM around here in a long time I think. BTW, a small circle of 3 has shown up in NE MD on the hail map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Watch out when something does pop in northern B-more county... Eeesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I don't think we will see some of these again the left moving supercell stuff is KEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Craven SigSvr param is also pretty high... Man if only we had a trigger and no cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Craven SigSvr param is also pretty high... Man if only we had a trigger and no cap. it would be a big mess.. we want some cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 the left moving supercell stuff is KEY Are you being serious or meh here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 it would be a big mess.. we want some cap Yeah that's what I meant. Meanwhile - some stations are AOA 90f now. Convective temp reached? Not at National tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Craven SigSvr param is also pretty high... Man if only we had a trigger and a little cap. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 looking good http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p12_015l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Thunderstorm Watch just issued for most of WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 For tomorrow per 1730z SPC OTLK MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FARTHER SEWD ON FRIDAY. THUS...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF NRN VA...CENTRAL AND NRN MD...AND MUCH OF SERN PA. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS ON THE WRN/NRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGING. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL PROGGED TO BE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WITH HEATING...FROM ALONG AND IN LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG...WHILE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TRACKS NEWD ACROSS VA TO ERN PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY TAKE ON SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL... WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH CONSOLIDATING STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE STRONG WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SOME /35-40 KT/ LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM VA/MD TO THE HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 i originally liked tomorrow better around here.. but i honestly havent looked a lot the last day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 For tomorrow per 1730z SPC OTLK Nice outlook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Fook AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 152 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --WITH ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM WRN KY...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED OUR WESTERN FIVE COUNTIES /ALLEGANY MD DOWN TO HIGHLAND VA/ INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381. AMPLE INSTABILITY IS OUT THERE...FORCING IS THE QUESTION AND THIS VORTICITY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER EAST...TERRAIN CIRCULATION UNDERWAY WITH CU ALONG RIDGES. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF HIGH OFF THE COAST IS KEEPING US CAPPED ATTM. THERE IS A WEALTH OF INSTABILITY...AND WITH 70F DEWPOINTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE. SHOULD THE CAP DEGRADE ENOUGH...ANOTHER SEVERE WATCH BOX MAY BE ADDED...THOUGH NOTHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS EXPECTED ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Well on the bright side, anyone with a clear view to the NW should be able to take some awesome shots of towering cumulonimbus clouds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 18z Mesoanalysis SBCAPE ~ 4500 j/kg LI: -11 LL Lapse Rates: 8+ ML Lapse Rates: 7.5+ Hail: 3 (different area than last update) Derecho: 10 Craven SigSvr: 50-90 range MCS Maintenence: 90 PWATS: 1.3ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 5 lightning strikes just south of Charles Town,WV... T-Storm going up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Something trying west of Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tops to 35k or so.. That should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 90/72 with an HI of 97 downtown Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 90/72 with an HI of 97 downtown Baltimore Scuddz mentioned earlier that this was a good sign - temp of 90 and dewpoints not mixing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 90/72 with an HI of 97 downtown Baltimore Kickball is going to SUCK later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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