CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Wiz, at least Hudson valley area is in a valley the offers some viewing. I like that area that Phil mentioned mid to late aftn, and then tr moves east. Albany area seems like a good start, but Logan 11's area looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 the more you look at these soundings across SNE today the more you wish there was a trigger mechanism. Today is going to surprise in SNE..think we'll see some storms fire some places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 LOL. CHH. LOL, usually we see it the other way around wrt low and mid level lapse rates. Good luck Wiz!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Wiz, at least Hudson valley area is in a valley the offers some viewing. I like that area that Phil mentioned mid to late aftn, and then tr moves east. Albany area seems like a good start, but Logan 11's area looks good too. Maybe he can nest in Logan's hair while he waits for the storms to come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Today is going to surprise in SNE..think we'll see some storms fire some places yeah i wouldn't be shocked to see a cell or two go off somewhere in W MA or something. it's just too bad there isn't a good mechanism for getting things fired off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 LOL. CHH. I know... depressing. These EML events can surprise though. Big CAPE and LIs near -10 can do magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I know... depressing. These EML events can surprise though. Big CAPE and LIs near -10 can do magic. I wish we had a strong enough boundary around here. If an isolated storm were to pop..look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Here are my random thoughts on severe potential as CCNet noted...crap for lift..just like yesterday.. As for severe threat IMO somewhat similar to yesterday's, that is storms and clusters exhibit a SW to NE motion.Training flooding concerns. Wind threat main concern, too especially in any collapsing cells or short lines that may form. Since little W-E flow, development of storms will be tied to local heating, timing of any weak low and ML vorts. WRF and GFS seem to favor CNY and E-CNY west of HV of NYS. HV points east to WNE could see some pulse type or multicell clusters but activity will be localized here due to like yesterday very weak if any forcing. Things start earlier today too noon-2pm and end sooner too by 8-10Pm. That's my take for the moment. If the low moving across NY were not filling, the EML would come into play more IMO..shear also less than yesterday closer to 30kts not shabby but not as high as yesterday's. looking at ALY's 12z RAOB the Convective temp is very high 31.8 C, like yesterday No CAP persay but it is near O or slightly positive as opposed to yesterday's totally UNCAPPED airmass. Again if we had any forcing of merit yesterday would have been huge.Waiting on 12z WRF to fine tune things but I'm not too enthused. Severe yes but not widespread stuff. The ALB raob still has pretty decent shear EHI is 2.2 (0-2KM) modifying it with an 83/65 TT/DP CAPE is around 1995 j/kg. LI -6.8 BRN 14 (14-21 is usually HIGH for Supercells). There is a small jet streak on GFS and UK moves just south of CD..thinking BERK may be a good spot today after all. LCL ariound 1200 meters lower than yesterday.Disregarding WRF its fooked up on the frontal boundary placement across NY going with GFLooking at RUC now Conv temps not as low as actually sounding says...still think nonn to 2pm across HV looks good for storms. FCST HODO's do support potential discrete cells, too [*]Still not overly impressed with widespread severe potential but then again I wasn't too right yesterday so confidence today isn't exactly high 'cause its bruised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I wish we had a strong enough boundary around here. If an isolated storm were to pop..look out. Even if we get one cell to pop over the Berkshires... watch out. I'm a bit worried that we'll be able to maintain the updrafts though given relatively dry soundings and little/if any synoptic scale ascent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 btw that was one nasty squall line that got going near and east of BGM last night. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Even if we get one cell to pop over the Berkshires... watch out. I'm a bit worried that we'll be able to maintain the updrafts though given relatively dry soundings and little/if any synoptic scale ascent. CAPE profile off the actually sounding and forecast ones from the RUC are a bit "shoelace" like Ryan..it will be tough. MVV are not as high as yesterday's were too only around 7-8 this aftn...While it is possible I think it will tough for updrafts to be maintained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 CAPE profile off the actually sounding and forecast ones from the RUC are a bit "shoelace" like Ryan..it will be tough. MVV are not as high as yesterday's were too only around 7-8 this aftn...While it is possible I think it will tough for updrafts to be maintained. shoelace? never heard that before Yeah updraft maintenance is going to be tough without height falls/pva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Question here... could we see a similar situation to what happened yesterday in VT and NNH just shifted further south? I could see something like that where SNH and VT gets into that firehose of nasty cells when CT MA and RI are left with a nice sunset with tall thunderstorm clouds off in the distance .. at least for my sake that's what I hope... Will this be a line or isolated severe if anything forms? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 shoelace? never heard that before Yeah updraft maintenance is going to be tough without height falls/pva. He found it behind one of the wood panels in the den Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 shoelace? never heard that before Yeah updraft maintenance is going to be tough without height falls/pva. Skinny/thin=shoelace as opposed to thick or fat like Kev like's his women. :-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Why is it then when some of the parameters are great for extreme southern new england nothing is going to happen? Come on just once I would like to see a severe thunderstorm inside of 495. Also, what does EML stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 shoelace? never heard that before Yeah updraft maintenance is going to be tough without height falls/pva. Shear will weaken a bit throughout the day, but 40-50kts at 500mb combined with good CAPE seems fine to me. I have a feeling storms will propagate from their own cold pools and move east which will help as far as updraft maintenance goes. I could see that training scenario that Andy brought in upstate NY where storm orientation may turn more sw-ne...almost like a pseudo warm front orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Skinny/thin=shoelace as opposed to thick or fat like Kev like's his women. :-0 lol check out the OKX sounding though... much different. With LIs approaching -10c you're bound to have some pretty fat/stout CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Shear will weaken a bit throughout the day, but 40-50kts at 500mb combined with good CAPE seems fine to me. I have a feeling storms will propagate from their own cold pools and move east which will help as far as updraft maintenance goes. I could see that training scenario that Andy brought in upstate NY where storm orientation may turn more sw-ne...almost like a pseudo warm front orientation. That's why I like the Berkshires... they seem to have the best CAPE/Shear combination today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I don't care what the parameters are. If that stuff makes it into the Berks...look out. Best instability will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 That's why I like the Berkshires... they seem to have the best CAPE/Shear combination today. Yeah the EML like feature pivots up, but then moves east in the aftn. So NY state is sort of fighting that, but if the stuff can make it east..Berks look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 12z NAM has 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE over Mt Tolland lol (also has an absurdly high dew point forecast) are they ever going to fix that model???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I don't care what the parameters are. If that stuff makes it into the Berks...look out. Best instability will be there. I think there's an enhanced svr threat Litchfield/Berkshire/God's Country late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I think there's an enhanced svr threat Litchfield/Berkshire/God's Country late this afternoon. RUC wants to hammer S'rn Berks and Litchfield counties: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 12z NAM has 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE over Mt Tolland lol (also has an absurdly high dew point forecast) are they ever going to fix that model???? LOL..what's it got for a dew? Let me guess like 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 LOL..what's it got for a dew? Let me guess like 73 Like 71 or so for you. You'll be lucky to get to 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Andy I'm surprised to see those sfc winds so backed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Like 71 or so for you. You'll be lucky to get to 66. Too far east for any storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Too far east for any storms? You could. Best threat for severe is west of you but I wouldn't rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 it may ultimately just wash out, but there does appear to be a small boundary running NE to SW from like the DXR region through the lower hudson valley. looks like the remnants of the overnight marine influence, slightly lower Tds and a SE flow on the southerly side of the line (also seems to be demarcated by a thinning line of stratus on vis sat). grasping for straws maybe but who knows, perhaps that helps feed anything that tries to get going in the lower HV area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.