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Severe Weather Threat Friday?


weatherwiz

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I wonder if we see some stuff pop over Southern Ct along the seasbreeze and it works north? That's my guess. Otherwise. I think the stuff to our NW stays there

Depends... it's going to be a mess figuring out where convective initiation occurs. I doubt it's on the sea breeze front in CT most likely along differential heating boundaries in the Catskills that slowly ooze east.

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I can't wait to hear the stories from him.

I'm envisioning broken down car, him running naked down the highway soaking wet, and then getting arrested.

LOL. chasing is such a crapshoot.

if i were him i'd be getting myself into NYS. ALB gives him the option to head w, n, s and e on major interstates pretty easily. based on what transpired yesterday and where...i'd suspect that corridor from RUT to ALB to BGM to POU or something in there. the POU soundings on the oxk nmm look pretty darn good. high fat cape, low cin...they are a bit removed from the better dynamics down that way but maybe there's some terrain development there with the valley/river/hills

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LOL. chasing is such a crapshoot.

if i were him i'd be getting myself into NYS. ALB gives him the option to head w, n, s and e on major interstates pretty easily. based on what transpired yesterday and where...i'd suspect that corridor from RUT to ALB to BGM to POU or something in there. the POU soundings on the oxk nmm look pretty darn good. high fat cape, low cin...they are a bit removed from the better dynamics down that way but maybe there's some terrain development there with the valley/river/hills

Were going to be leaving for Albany within the next 30 minutes.

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LOL. chasing is such a crapshoot.

if i were him i'd be getting myself into NYS. ALB gives him the option to head w, n, s and e on major interstates pretty easily. based on what transpired yesterday and where...i'd suspect that corridor from RUT to ALB to BGM to POU or something in there. the POU soundings on the oxk nmm look pretty darn good. high fat cape, low cin...they are a bit removed from the better dynamics down that way but maybe there's some terrain development there with the valley/river/hills

I agree. ALB is a good bet. Great Barrington isn't bad either. I like Dutchess County, Columbia County, Berkshire County and maybe sliding east into Litchfield Co and the Pioneer Valley this evening.

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I agree. ALB is a good bet. Great Barrington isn't bad either. I like Dutchess County, Columbia County, Berkshire County and maybe sliding east into Litchfield Co and the Pioneer Valley this evening.

the trick is going to be getting himself into a position where he avoids the stuff that inevitably ends up merging into a big mess and finds some of the more discrete stuff. yesterday it looked like c and e PA and some of e NYS had a bunch of small but kind of potent cells going. i would think the environment is a bit more supportive for those to grow today.

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the trick is going to be getting himself into a position where he avoids the stuff that inevitably ends up merging into a big mess and finds some of the more discrete stuff. yesterday it looked like c and e PA and some of e NYS had a bunch of small but kind of potent cells going. i would think the environment is a bit more supportive for those to grow today.

I definitely agree.

Looks like the bulk of the action moves through after 21-22z or so but anytime before then we could see some discrete development...things may even begin like this for a brief period before forming into a line. The area we'd be in too is also good for backing low-level flow and increased helicity so we'll see what happens.

12z NAM looking pretty damn unstable, although I didn't check to see what is was forecasting for the sfc dews.

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Chasing around here is just plain hard. I personally would never go anywhere that I didn't know. Nothing worse than trying to find a view with a big storm seconds away from bending you over. I like going to Columbia County myself, easier to find views, less traffic, not far. NE Dutchess is good too. I can't imagine driving all the way to GFL/RUT for severe, would have to be 7/10/89 type thing.

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