weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 I would stay in ALB until the threat becomes more clear. It could wind up south of there... if strong instability fails to develop near RUT/GFL. Best mid and low level shear will stay NE of ALB but I'm not sure how unstable they'll get. Great Barrington is another option for you. You can scoot west toward ALB/Columbia/Rensselaer County if you have to. Or shoot straight north of Rt 7 into Berkshire County. Yeah the main issue right now is figuring out how unstable these northern areas get where the better shear is located...some of the hodos too look decent up north but instability lacking. Great Barrington is a good spot, didn't think of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Looking forward to the 12z ALY sounding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Looking forward to the 12z ALY sounding! HRRR targets that area I laid out earlier.... GFL/RUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 HRRR targets that area I laid out earlier.... GFL/RUT I was just about to ask you about the HRRR...doe sit usually do a decent job with convection? 10z run only goes out to 9 HR's and it looks like it's getting action beginning to pop then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I was just about to ask you about the HRRR...doe sit usually do a decent job with convection? 10z run only goes out to 9 HR's and it looks like it's getting action beginning to pop then. It's OK... but I don't rely on it too much. The more I look I think Berkshire County or adjacent NY (Columbia or Rennsealaer County) is a good staging area for you. It looks like there won't be much overlap between best shear (VT/NH) and best instability (CT) in general... but Berkshire County will have the most favorbale combination of factors and is also closer to the best quasi-geostrophic lift than areas further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 It's OK... but I don't rely on it too much. The more I look I think Berkshire County or adjacent NY (Columbia or Rennsealaer County) is a good staging area for you. It looks like there won't be much overlap between best shear (VT/NH) and best instability (CT) in general... but Berkshire County will have the most favorbale combination of factors and is also closer to the best quasi-geostrophic lift than areas further south. Sounds good to me Thanks for the help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 It's OK... but I don't rely on it too much. The more I look I think Berkshire County or adjacent NY (Columbia or Rennsealaer County) is a good staging area for you. It looks like there won't be much overlap between best shear (VT/NH) and best instability (CT) in general... but Berkshire County will have the most favorbale combination of factors and is also closer to the best quasi-geostrophic lift than areas further south. It's also east of any boundary with big time instability. They might do well if storms can eek into there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 This would be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 It's also east of any boundary with big time instability. They might do well if storms can eek into there. I think they'll get storms to fire there. CIN is much weaker than yesterday and they're fairly close to right entrance region of departing jet streak. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see SVR into S NH, ORH, HFD, DXR today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 The HRRR doesn't look too bad for helicity either, could really help with the hail threat which could actually be bigger than yesterday! WBZ heights are lower today than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 The HRRR doesn't look too bad for helicity either, could really help with the hail threat which could actually be bigger than yesterday! WBZ heights are lower today than yesterday. Feel free to text me today if you need any help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Feel free to text me today if you need any help That would be such a huge help! My friend has his cell phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I think they'll get storms to fire there. CIN is much weaker than yesterday and they're fairly close to right entrance region of departing jet streak. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see SVR into S NH, ORH, HFD, DXR today Yeah I could see that as well. Just looking at a few things now. Maybe Monday will be the day around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yeah I could see that as well. Just looking at a few things now. Maybe Monday will be the day around here. Yeah could be. For today once again the issue will be neutral height rises at 500 hpa... that's never a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yeah I could see that as well. Just looking at a few things now. Maybe Monday will be the day around here. As for Monday it looks like we'll have a front trying to sag south... but we could have a really formidable cap with that 500mb ridge flexing its muscle and increasing heights quite a bit during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Hate to make an IMBY post, but I'm flying into Albany today and was wondering what time you guys think convection will be an issue there? I looked at the HRRR and NAM and they seem to suggest a frontal band of convection propagating south, but timing and strength differs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yeah could be. For today once again the issue will be neutral height rises at 500 hpa... that's never a good thing. Not much PVA, but height falls weren't really there in VT last night either..they just fired up from the big instability. Cells could look like the stuff in VT last night....maybe segments with a few powerful cells embedded in them or perhaps on the leading edge. Again, I haven't looked too hard yet, but seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Not much PVA, but height falls weren't really there in VT last night either..they just fired up from the big instability. Cells could look like the stuff in VT last night....maybe segments with a few powerful cells embedded in them or perhaps on the leading edge. Again, I haven't looked too hard yet, but seems possible. Instability may not be as strong as yesterday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Ummmm...this sucks? Unless the heating is being vastly underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Look at the 12z OKX sounding... 500-700mb lapse rate 8c/km! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Look at the 12z OKX sounding... 500-700mb lapse rate 8c/km! Yeah that's pretty crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Yeah that's pretty crazy! Beautiful EML. Steep mid level lapse rates can always provide fun. Just have to get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Beautiful EML. Steep mid level lapse rates can always provide fun. Just have to get things going. All we need to do is get some good instability and some lift and today should be fun somewhere, shear really isn't all that bad, even this far south but were more removed from the best forcing from the ULJ. Could see some big hailers again today. Insane to see baseball hail in VT yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Beautiful EML. Steep mid level lapse rates can always provide fun. Just have to get things going. That's that layer in the Carolinas that I was talking about yesterday. It's actually advecting in from the south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 That's that layer in the Carolinas that I was talking about yesterday. It's actually advecting in from the south! Very unusual... very impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Very unusual... very impressive! Yeah what a waste out this way...lol. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 That's that layer in the Carolinas that I was talking about yesterday. It's actually advecting in from the south! you working today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I think most of interior SNE has a shot at severe storms this afternoon /evening. This appears to be one of those surprise days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I think most of interior SNE has a shot at severe storms this afternoon /evening. This appears to be one of those surprise days. Wouldn't shock me. Anytime you see forecast LIs of -9 with an EML overhead you get interested. Lots of negatives with this event but you're right it could surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Wouldn't shock me. Anytime you see forecast LIs of -9 with an EML overhead you get interested. Lots of negatives with this event but you're right it could surprise. I wonder if we see some stuff pop over Southern Ct along the seasbreeze and it works north? That's my guess. Otherwise. I think the stuff to our NW stays there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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