Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Euro actually brings leftover convection in W CT later today But with that ridge where it is it's certainly possible we miss out Maybe something can spill into Ct /Western and Central Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Still not really sure where to go tomorrow, perhaps upstate NY area near the VT border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Head West Wizzy!!!!! Mesoscale Discussion 979< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261555Z - 261730Z STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF PA AND NY WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IT APPEARS VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SOON CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS AND WITH TIME A MATURING CU FIELD THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL PA INTO UPSTATE NY. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE NOTED GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 I have baseball today so the only place I'm headed is Conard High Schol in my town...game should be done by 5:45 PM so perhaps we can maybe make a fun a bit west is storms make it close to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Looks like watch will be out shortly for or just west of where I am near Albany. Unfortunately I'm leaving to head home for CT at 4...so its likely I miss out on the fun stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado WAtch already out for parts of NY/VT until 8:00 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Any thoughts on how far east this stuff should make it? Perhaps after my game we can jet out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Any thoughts on how far east this stuff should make it? Perhaps after my game we can jet out quickly. Western mass may have a shot this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Western mass may have a shot this evening. Sweet! Was just looking at the HWWR and it tries to get some action into western MA this evening. I could make that trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Sweet! Was just looking at the HWWR and it tries to get some action into western MA this evening. I could make that trip. bring me, bring me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 bring me, bring me! We could do this! Not 100% sure yet if were going but when I get back from my game were going to look at things and see. Looks like if anything were to come into the NW corner of the state it would be between 8-10 PM or so...should at least be a good amount of lightning. Can't rule out the potential for some strong or severe with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 bring me, bring me! We could do this! Not 100% sure yet if were going but when I get back from my game were going to look at things and see. Looks like if anything were to come into the NW corner of the state it would be between 8-10 PM or so...should at least be a good amount of lightning. Can't rule out the potential for some strong or severe with it. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 :weenie: ah yes, double penetration...your favorite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado WAtch out for portions of NY/PA until 10:00 PM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado WAtch out for portions of NY/PA until 10:00 PM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 wow, really looking great! for next Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Nice splitting supercell over northern Lewis County in the Adirondacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Weird differences in storm strength on Montague/Albany vs. Burlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Thinking of doing somewhere around the VT/NH/MA border tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 sexiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 sexiness Impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 There's an EML tonight in OKX, ALB, and CHH. My apologies to Paul for saying it wasn't...certainly an odd direction for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Thinking of doing somewhere around the VT/NH/MA border tomorrow. Start in Stockbridge Mass you have access to the pike to go west and east and you can also go due north or south via route 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 There's an EML tonight in OKX, ALB, and CHH. My apologies to Paul for saying it wasn't...certainly an odd direction for it. Could you pick one and highlight the EML for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Upton has one between 750 and 650mb and another between 600mb and 500mb. The temperature profile is nearly parallel to the dry adiabat in those layers. The dry adiabats are the green lines that run from the right bottom to the top left. Elevated mixed layers are correlated with significant/major severe weather outbreaks in the NE. They enhance updraft potential through steep lapse rates and greater instability and increase downdraft potential due to the very dry air. This air has likely advected relatively uncontaminated from the high deserts of the SW US and northern MX. That layer can also serve as a cap to keep convection at bay until it breaks through lift in the mid to late afternoon causing more explosive convection initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 It doesn't look too bad tomorrow...it would be nicer if the dynamics were a little stronger, but we should probably see our first severe storms in SNE of the season. Probably marginal severe hail would be the main thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 It doesn't look too bad tomorrow...it would be nicer if the dynamics were a little stronger, but we should probably see our first severe storms in SNE of the season. Probably marginal severe hail would be the main thing. How far east do you think the storms get tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 How far east do you think the storms get tomorrow? It looks like they could get to around my area, maybe a little further, its a close call. But they'll probably die quickly after that. W MA into VT and NH def look like the better spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 It looks like they could get to around my area, maybe a little further, its a close call. But they'll probably die quickly after that. W MA into VT and NH def look like the better spots. I'll cross my fingers. Western MA and CT will get some action tonight anyway from that MCS in NJ/E NY. Steep lapse rates and good elevated instability and modest shear should maintain it for a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I'll cross my fingers. Western MA and CT will get some action tonight anyway from that MCS in NJ/E NY. Steep lapse rates and good elevated instability and modest shear should maintain it for a few more hours. I wish that thing had a more easterly component. I love nocturnal thunderstorms that give a good light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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