CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Yeah it has Berkshire/Litchfield County special written all over it while ORH gets some cirrus from the anvil lol It does look interesting for that PA/NY State area into western NE. That's usually the climo spot in these setups. I think my only shot in the next week is if we can get some sort of nw flow stuff shooting out of Ontario and NY state. Sad when that's your hope because it's clearly not a lock, but at least the chance might be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It does look interesting for that PA/NY State area into western NE. That's usually the climo spot in these setups. I think my only shot in the next week is if we can get some sort of nw flow stuff shooting out of Ontario and NY state. Sad when that's your hope because it's clearly not a lock, but at least the chance might be there. I think the svr threat in the next 7-10 days is definitely there. Jet stream is nearby with big ridge to the south. Normally a decent setup for us this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I do not think the heat will blaze next week. It will probably get warm, esp compared to what we have had. With the cool SSTs and maritime influence of late Spring lurking and wnw flow, which will inevitably bring overnight early AM convection if not debris clouds, usually guidnace is too warm esp D7 and beyond. Fri SNE will be relying on dynamics and maybe a cold pool or something like that, to maintain convection late enough at night and far enough east. The SW or SSW? flow should is not going to help, climo sucks. Next Tues/Wed will probably be the better shot for strong or maybe severe storms, at least for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 I know the best chance is just west of here ehich is why I am going WEST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm sorry but these threads are a joke compared to what I am reading out west. No kidding right? But this is the problem with living in the northeast. We have to grasp at straws for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 No kidding right? But this is the problem with living in the northeast. We have to grasp at straws for severe weather. It's stupid to compare one regions weather to another. I'm sure people who live in the huge mountain ranges in the west laugh at us during our winter storms...many of these places probably get in one week then what ANYONE in New England averages in a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 our best shot looks like early next week some time. check out those cells already going over MO right now. amazing stuff with tornadoes on the ground already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 our best shot looks like early next week some time. check out those cells already going over MO right now. amazing stuff with tornadoes on the ground already. Saturday and Sunday should be decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Top day of the spring so far, low dews, fresh breeze 77. Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 18z GFS soundings still showing an EML look! Almost all EML events in SNE and the Northeast have west-northwest to northwest flow. While the lapse rates on the model you showed looked decent, I don't think it was truly representative of an EML advecting aloft from the high NM/MX desert. We see those in that type of flow since the EML doesn't get contaminated from antecedent convection due to strong ridging to the southwest and it is actually adiabatically enhanced through downward vertical motion near the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It's stupid to compare one regions weather to another. I'm sure people who live in the huge mountain ranges in the west laugh at us during our winter storms...many of these places probably get in one week then what ANYONE in New England averages in a winter. The difference is nobody lives at 10,000 feet in the mountains out west. There's actual big populous areas getting real severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'd rather see the ridge centered further south during next week to tap into some MCS potential. Ohio Valley ridges with negative height anomalies in Ontario and Quebec ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'd rather see the ridge centered further south during next week to tap into some MCS potential. Ohio Valley ridges with negative height anomalies in Ontario and Quebec ftw Yeah the EC depiction is too amped up a ridge for us. It blows chunks. It does look like it would produce a decent event when the front comes through late Wednesday in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 GFS looks better for those interested in more thunderstorms. Keeps the ridge centered for the most part to our southwest in the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 What completely blows is tomorrow may be better across PA/NY than Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wednesday June 1st looks juicy...too bad it's so far out. Definite EML potential too with the ridge position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 yeah just checking out BUFKIT...the GFS definitely suggests an EML on Tuesday night. Wednesday doesn't get too unstable though...MLCAPE of 1500 j/kg with 0-6km shear of 40 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 yeah just checking out BUFKIT...the GFS definitely suggests an EML on Tuesday night. Wednesday doesn't get too unstable though...MLCAPE of 1500 j/kg with 0-6km shear of 40 kt. It had one for tomorrow two days ago too, that's what got Wiz naked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 It had one for tomorrow two days ago too, that's what got Wiz naked. nah...that wasn't an EML...just steeper lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 EML's seem like a nowcast thing around here. I've seen them modeled...only go to crap, thanks to latent heat release from prior convection. Hopefully we see something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 EML's seem like a nowcast thing around here. I've seen them modeled...only go to crap, thanks to latent heat release from prior convection. Hopefully we see something interesting. yes, they are certainly more modeled than come to fruition. Same thing further west in NYS. This pattern forecast is definitely a pattern favorable for EML advection, though. My bet is that we will see EML a few days next week, but it has to occur at the right time with the trigger on Wednesday. Stout ridge in the Ohio Valley and a Rockies trough will typically allow the EML to advect on the northern edge of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 yes, they are certainly more modeled than come to fruition. Same thing further west in NYS. This pattern forecast is definitely a pattern favorable for EML advection, though. My bet is that we will see EML a few days next week, but it has to occur at the right time with the trigger on Wednesday. Stout ridge in the Ohio Valley and a Rockies trough will typically allow the EML to advect on the northern edge of the ridge. Yeah I agree..it's an EML type pattern, we'll just have to work on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 700mb plume from the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Man if we only had a trigger tomorrow. Great lapse rates on bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 It's going to be difficult for me to get satisfaction from northeast severe weather now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Nice severe threat in upstate NY today. Wiz going chasing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 can we go the entire next 5-6 days with no rain/thunder? looks possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 can we go the entire next 5-6 days with no rain/thunder? looks possible Euro actually brings leftover convection in W CT later today But with that ridge where it is it's certainly possible we miss out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Nice severe threat in upstate NY today. Wiz going chasing??? Can't make it out there today unfortunately but tomorrow I will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.