weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 On Friday a cold front will be approaching southern New England from the west. Out ahead of the cold front the airmass will be warm and humid as surface temperatures will have the potential to reach the lower ti middle 80's with dewpoints nearing the middle 60's. Mid-level temperatures will be rather cold as well, right around -12C to -13C at 500mb. 700mb temps will be right around +5C or so. This should yield to some fairly steep mid-level lapse rates, possibly right around 6.5 C/KM...which is better than what we see during most of our setups. This combination could potentially yield to some moderate instability values depending on how much we warm up at the sfc. While the low-level wind field does not appear overly strong at this time winds in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere are fairly strong, at least strong enough in the mid-levels to yield to about 30-40 knots of vertical shear, enough to help with some storm organization. While the strongest of the ULJ is a bit further north we may not get into the RRQ of the ULJ which could inhibit the strength of upward motion. PWATS will be anomalously high as well, around 1.50'' so heavy rain would definitely be a threat. Due to the above mentioned instability values convection would certainly be possible and if we can materialize enough instability there would be a chance some of the storms become strong to locally severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 I'll add more sometime during the overnight hours but pretty intrigued on Friday's potential, especially if future model runs hold onto this EML look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I'll add more sometime during the overnight hours but pretty intrigued on Friday's potential, especially if future model runs hold onto this EML look. I passed you getting ready to cross Farmington Ave about an hour ago. Were you getting a 40 to celebrate the svr potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I passed you getting ready to cross Farmington Ave about an hour ago. Were you getting a 40 to celebrate the svr potential? LOL..why didn't you invite him over...and poor some beer on the curb for your homies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 I passed you getting ready to cross Farmington Ave about an hour ago. Were you getting a 40 to celebrate the svr potential? I was getting a 40 for the Bruins game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 18z GFS soundings still showing an EML look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 18z GFS soundings still showing an EML look! EML? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 EML? Elevated mixed-layer. It's basically like a capping inversion...it's an area of warming temps aloft which lead to some very steep lapse rates and a HIGH amount of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Elevated mixed-layer. It's basically like a capping inversion...it's an area of warming temps aloft which lead to some very steep lapse rates and a HIGH amount of instability. What layer is the EML at on the skew again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 What layer is the EML at on the skew again Here is an example of what an EML sounding looks like, it can be characterized by the dewpoint and/or temperature. See how in this sounding at about 850-800mb you see rapid warming and a great deal of dry air? That's the EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Probably heading west Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Probably heading west Friday. Why? Ct ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Why? Ct ground zero PA/NY usually just do so much better than we do...it depends though, we'll see. GFS continues to show some impressive instability values just west/southwest of us and still hint at EML although it's not as defined as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 PA/NY usually just do so much better than we do...it depends though, we'll see. GFS continues to show some impressive instability values just west/southwest of us and still hint at EML although it's not as defined as yesterday. I highly doubt any kind of EML is over SNE on Fri..But Euro torches us to like 85 on Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 I highly doubt any kind of EML is over SNE on Fri..But Euro torches us to like 85 on Fri Even the SPC SREF is hinting at this...so it's not like it's just one model...although this is an ensemble mean so obviously it probably would if other members are. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2011052403&id=SREF_prob_H7_to_H5_LapseRate_7__ But we have this, the GFS, and the NAM. Maybe someone who can view the Euro can see if this does as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Friday's potential is rater interesting...all models showing a steep lapse rates environment, shear is adequate and the question is how unstable do we become? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Even the SPC SREF is hinting at this...so it's not like it's just one model...although this is an ensemble mean so obviously it probably would if other members are. http://www.spc.noaa....5_LapseRate_7__ But we have this, the GFS, and the NAM. Maybe someone who can view the Euro can see if this does as well. You need an area of near dry adiabatic lapse rates in the MLs to consider it a true EML...I haven't seen that for Friday on the soundings yet. Maybe I missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 You need an area of near dry adiabatic lapse rates in the MLs to consider it a true EML...I haven't seen that for Friday on the soundings yet. Maybe I missed something. Ahh...didn't know that. That's not the case with any of the soundings across PA/NJ/SE NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 I wasn't going to stay up for the new day 3 but I will. BTW, threat could cover a greater area of SNE on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Slight risk!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Friday is a PHAIL..Mostly sunny the entire day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Friday is a PHAIL..Mostly sunny the entire day Thankfully. I'm flying home that day. Today heading to MO is worrisome enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Models actually look pretty impressive for C/E NY and <EM>maybe</EM> W New England on Friday. I think the best threat stays west but parameters are impressive at this early juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Models actually look pretty impressive for C/E NY and <EM>maybe</EM> W New England on Friday. I think the best threat stays west but parameters are impressive at this early juncture. yeah looks like best trigger is west and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 yeah looks like best trigger is west and north. Synoptic scale lift develops over the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills with RRQ of jet streak overhead. Agreed though that things look much better west. Something to watch out given the impressive shear (just west) and steep mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Synoptic scale lift develops over the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills with RRQ of jet streak overhead. Agreed though that things look much better west. Something to watch out given the impressive shear (just west) and steep mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm sorry but these threads are a joke compared to what I am reading out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Synoptic scale lift develops over the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills with RRQ of jet streak overhead. Agreed though that things look much better west. Something to watch out given the impressive shear (just west) and steep mid level lapse rates. yeah maybe a few isolated cells out in W NE - spc seems to agree there. the s-w just kind of goes down the crapper as it lifts out of the OV, leaving most of SNE in no-man's land. like you said, best combo of ingredients seems to be west...maybe n/c Greens SW through central NYS down into central or western PA? pretty strong mid-level winds...damaging ENE moving squall lines? soundings do look pretty good out in NYS into parts of VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 yeah maybe a few isolated cells out in W NE - spc seems to agree there. the s-w just kind of goes down the crapper as it lifts out of the OV, leaving most of SNE in no-man's land. like you said, best combo of ingredients seems to be west...maybe n/c Greens SW through central NYS down into central or western PA? pretty strong mid-level winds...damaging ENE moving squall lines? soundings do look pretty good out in NYS into parts of VT. It's a classic SNE screw zone pattern with the ridge building to our east and that vortmax moving almost due north. We'll have humid srly flow and that's about it. Maybe Berks get some fun, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 It's a classic SNE screw zone pattern with the ridge building to our east and that vortmax moving almost due north. We'll have humid srly flow and that's about it. Maybe Berks get some fun, but that's about it. Yeah it has Berkshire/Litchfield County special written all over it while ORH gets some cirrus from the anvil lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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