Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

[Ian]

People on Facebook are saying the suspected location of JoMo was heavily damaged. I've read so much conflicting info today...

his post was at 5:27 that the couplet was nearly on top of him, so looks like some stretch of time between that and their current damage path at least, if he was being literal.

[winterymix]

his post was at 5:27 that the couplet was nearly on top of him, so looks like some stretch of time between that and their current damage path at least, if he was being literal.

If the membership database captures full names, you guys can check for him on the Red Cross site.

Worrisome vibrations, keep hope alive for the best.

[Hoosier]

his post was at 5:27 that the couplet was nearly on top of him, so looks like some stretch of time between that and their current damage path at least, if he was being literal.

I think it was farther away from him than his post suggested (although certainly pretty close). We know that Cecil Floyd had damage and that is not too far away. Tidbits from the survey would suggest that he missed the worst but the damage path is wide.

[aslkahuna]

Looking at Piotrowski's video, at times you can hardly tell it's a tornado but a huge mass of boiling black clouds. Move this with a forward speed of 69 mph and you have some idea of what the people in 1925 must have seen. Incidentally, a 20 minute leadtime is excellent for a mesoscale event of only 9 minute's or so duration.

Steve

[outflow]

I am always terrified of what happens when a big tornado hits a school while it is in session. The video from the helicopter clearly shows several schools destroyed, one of which looked like the high school or voc school.

the good thing is the chances of schools getting hit with students still inside is somewhat tempered by most schools having hours of 7am-3pm or so, there really is only a short overlap between when students get out and when tornado ocrruences start to increase as afternoon heating can occur. of course , there is the threat of tornadoes hitting large amounts of buses as schools lets out, as i think happened in oak lawn Ill in the 60s.

I still think the biggest loss of life threat comes with a sporting event being hit by a large tornado. Just as an example, say you have 80,0000 people at a nascar event in kansas or texas, thats people spread out in the open over a 2-3 mile area, plus 1000s of people camping in the infield, plus that many crewmen, reporters, etc. Where do you put all these people in 20 mintues if a tornado is coming at that? this is where you could see deaths approaching 1000

[B-Rent]

I still think the biggest loss of life threat comes with a sporting event being hit by a large tornado. Just as an example, say you have 80,0000 people at a nascar event in kansas or texas, thats people spread out in the open over a 2-3 mile area, plus 1000s of people camping in the infield, plus that many crewmen, reporters, etc. Where do you put all these people in 20 mintues if a tornado is coming at that? this is where you could see deaths approaching 1000

Talladega came very close to that last month. The race wasn't going on, but the campground was full. According to a buddy there there weren't many campers taking percautions. If I remember right there was a tornado spotted in town by the FD as well.

[Srain]

Looking at Piotrowski's video, at times you can hardly tell it's a tornado but a huge mass of boiling black clouds. Move this with a forward speed of 69 mph and you have some idea of what the people in 1925 must have seen. Incidentally, a 20 minute leadtime is excellent for a mesoscale event of only 9 minute's or so duration.

Steve

Strongly agree.

[B-Rent]

A woman on CNN just said she was driving trying to find an overpass to take shelter in. *head desk*

[Hoosier]

the good thing is the chances of schools getting hit with students still inside is somewhat tempered by most schools having hours of 7am-3pm or so, there really is only a short overlap between when students get out and when tornado ocrruences start to increase as afternoon heating can occur. of course , there is the threat of tornadoes hitting large amounts of buses as schools lets out, as i think happened in oak lawn Ill in the 60s.

I still think the biggest loss of life threat comes with a sporting event being hit by a large tornado. Just as an example, say you have 80,0000 people at a nascar event in kansas or texas, thats people spread out in the open over a 2-3 mile area, plus 1000s of people camping in the infield, plus that many crewmen, reporters, etc. Where do you put all these people in 20 mintues if a tornado is coming at that? this is where you could see deaths approaching 1000

That is a real nightmare scenario. It might be 10 years or 100 years from now but it will happen someday.

[MJW155]

That is a real nightmare scenario. It might be 10 years or 100 years from now but it will happen someday.

There was a school in Albany NY that got hit hard about 15-20 years ago.

[Macintosh]

Looking at Piotrowski's video, at times you can hardly tell it's a tornado but a huge mass of boiling black clouds. Move this with a forward speed of 69 mph and you have some idea of what the people in 1925 must have seen. Incidentally, a 20 minute leadtime is excellent for a mesoscale event of only 9 minute's or so duration.

Steve

The lead times are fine. It's the response delay time that needs improving. That is, how long it takes to implement whatever plan of action one wishes to implement.

[on_wx]

That is a real nightmare scenario. It might be 10 years or 100 years from now but it will happen someday.

Schools usually close on high risk days in the US don't they? Imagine if they canceled sporting events on high risk days... one of those cheap disaster movie plots with a mayor who refuses to cancel an event because the revenue will benefit the city comes to mind.

[MJW155]

The lead times are fine. It's the response delay time that needs improving. That is, how long it takes to implement whatever plan of action one wishes to implement.

Yea I'm sure in some places people discuss whether to take the warning seriously or not. "There's a tornado warning? But I just looked outside. It's fine."

[Hoosier]

Schools usually close on high risk days in the US don't they? Imagine if they canceled sporting events on high risk days... one of those cheap disaster movie plots with a mayor who refuses to cancel an event because the revenue will benefit the city comes to mind.

Some schools do but I imagine that most don't.

[Fred Gossage]

Some schools do but I imagine that most don't.

That's mainly a Dixie Alley thing, after the Enterprise tornado... and the school closings happen most often in Alabama specifically.

[baroclinic_instability]

That's higher than I expected (I wonder if a decent percentage of those are just tornadoes that were never reported 'cause they happened in sparsely populated areas?)... but not so high that you should say "oh it's just another tornado warning". Even one in four is pretty scary odds for a tornado.

Obviously you all know this, but it's a matter of getting this notion to the general public. Just because you've been tornado warned before and didn't personally see anything doesn't mean you shouldn't take the next one seriously.

It is an incredibly fine line when it comes to tornadoes. Of course crying wolf all the time is not ok since it will inevitably result in the public simply ignoring the warning--but nobody wants to be the one who has no warning on a tornado that potentially kills people. That information needs to get out--and it is likely better that the FAR be a tad high since tor warnings are such a rare event overall.

[CapeFearWX]

That is a real nightmare scenario.  It might be 10 years or 100 years from now but it will happen someday.

There have been a couple of very close calls in the past few years. The basketball arena in Atlanta was sideswiped by a tornado during the SEC tournament a few years ago, and the arena where the Utah Jazz play was damaged in the Salt Lake City tornado in 1999.

I would hope that all sports venues in tornado-prone areas have evacuation plans for tornadoes, but logistically I could see it being very tough in some cases. The massive football stadiums in the Big XII and SEC hold upwards of 80,000 people on game days, and NASCAR superspeedways generally seat over 100,000. Then there's the threat of storms hitting right when throngs of people are leaving or arriving at the games - massive traffic jams on the surrounding roads with possibly very little shelter.

[jhamps10]

Schools usually close on high risk days in the US don't they? Imagine if they canceled sporting events on high risk days... one of those cheap disaster movie plots with a mayor who refuses to cancel an event because the revenue will benefit the city comes to mind.

Not around here.... only areas that they do that i know of, the SE

[B-Rent]

That's mainly a Dixie Alley thing, after the Enterprise tornado... and the school closings happen most often in Alabama specifically.

Do you know if it is mandated, Fred, or is that just a rumor I have heard?

[SluggerWx]

Really sad story on Piers Morgan... live phone interview with an attorney in Joplin - Aunt posted on Facebook "Oh my God" before it hit. Both his Aunt/Uncle passed away in this storm.

This is tragic, and technology is allowing us too eerily communicate with those directly in the path of storms.

Do you all know if any IT forensic studies were done in Tuscaloosa with recovered cell phones/cameras? I imagine there are quite a few videos from victims of these storms that we never end up seeing because they don't make it.

Think of how many folks like the 'Duarte' Tuscaloosa video cap probably also recorded, but unfortunately fell victim to the storm as it jarred or turned directly at them...

[SluggerWx]

Everything that I thought I knew about violent tornadoes and death tolls has gone out the window this spring. It's been a long time since we've seen these kinds of death tolls, and I (like many others I imagine) was lulled into this idea that we wouldn't see this again. I've heard various sentiments in the past few weeks to the effect of "if you get a violent tornado going through a densely populated area, deaths are inevitable". While that may have some truth to it, I cannot help but feel that this is an insufficient answer. Like you Josh, I'm wondering how this happened, given how many violent tornadoes have rolled through significant population centers in the past few decades. Why weren't the Moore-OKC (1999) or Pleasant Grove (1998) tornadoes more deadly, for example?

A lack of trees over a broad area. Two reasons supporting that hypothesis:

1) Visibility. Monster tornadoes cannot be identified as monster tornadoes if you have three or even five trees within your close proximity. You see a giant black cloud that might appear as a squall line...and it's a giant tornado instead

2) Thousand Pound Missiles: Trees become hundreds or even thousands of 10 lb. to 2-5 ton projectiles that fly 150 - 200 MPH through the air in multiple directions.

If a tree penetrates a brick wall, the bricks then become part of a giant 200MPH floating blender. If a tree compromises the foundation of a home, air can then penetrate/lift the home.

This is why we've seen more deaths in the SE tornadoes and now Joplin. Look at any 'before' shot of Joplin and you'll see trees everywhere. I'd imagine we'd identify that the most east points of these city areas that have been destroyed have been hit by not just trees in their yard...but trees from a mile back, then the trees from 1/2 mile back and then the trees from 500 yards back...etc.

Greensburg/Parkersburg also had several trees throughout their towns.

[Hoosier]

A lack of trees over a broad area. Two reasons supporting that hypothesis:

1) Visibility. Monster tornadoes cannot be identified as monster tornadoes if you have three or even five trees within your close proximity. You see a giant black cloud that might appear as a squall line...and it's a giant tornado instead

2) Thousand Pound Missiles: Trees become hundreds or even thousands of 10 lb. to 2-5 ton projectiles that fly 150 - 200 MPH through the air in multiple directions.

If a tree penetrates a brick wall, the bricks then become part of a giant 200MPH floating blender. If a tree compromises the foundation of a home, air can then penetrate/lift the home.

This is why we've seen more deaths in the SE tornadoes and now Joplin. Look at any 'before' shot of Joplin and you'll see trees everywhere. I'd imagine we'd identify that the most east points of these city areas that have been destroyed have been hit by not just trees in their yard...but trees from a mile back, then the trees from 1/2 mile back and then the trees from 500 yards back...etc.

Greensburg/Parkersburg also had several trees throughout their towns.

I don't know if I agree with that. It's not like there aren't trees in a city like Oklahoma City.

[blackjack123]

Dont mean to get off topic but if a mile-wide EF5 tornado is referred to as a monster then what would you consider a rope EF5 tornado?

[SluggerWx]

That's probably a good idea going forward... the warnings need to be further refined probably too. Still, you'd think after seeing all that carnage just a few weeks ago people would be extra heightened to this stuff right now. I wonder how many laypeople actually understand that survival gets extremely difficult on these high end events unless you take very serious precautions. In some cases it's probably just not available as well.

Sadly, everyone, nobody is going to pay attention nationally aside from 'next-day' news coverage or whatever pops up on their Yahoo Messenger newspage that opens up when they open messenger upon arriving at work.

I'm sure this is why they'll upgrade Joplin to an EF-5 tomorrow so the 'next-day' press parade/lurkers doesn't go out to the 'sensational EF-5.' The boots on the ground are in rescue/recovery mode and you had better imagine there would be 10x more folks in Joplin, MO tomorrow if it were rated an EF-5 today than will be in Joplin, MO on Wednesday if it's upgraded to an EF-5 tomorrow. Same reason the pretty blonde that goes missing gets wall to wall coverage on the news while ten other girls go missing without a mention. The news is still, at the core, driven to bring in revenue (not that all it's reporters/staff feel that way). Until someone sustains coverage in the MSM or a big political figure (or President) takes advocacy to realize tornadoes ARE a risk to national security, those in the affected areas, we weather geeks and good-hearted volunteers are really the only folks that will be paying attention here.

This is why I've said that although Stormchasers is a total drama-fest on The Discovery Channel to most weather fans, it's probably doing more to attract attention to Tornadoes than nearly anything else.

If the government provided tax breaks to any employer who allowed their employees to go assist with these natural disasters, maybe most hard-working Americans would be able to step outside of the day-to-day haze of a Monday - Friday job and join in the effort to make a difference.

Now, millions of people would watch SevereStudios on Comcast or DirecTV (or ChaserTV for that matter) if they only knew it existed and video quality was slightly upgraded. That would be a way to increase exposure/interest in SevereWX. For business reasons, they'll get the revenue.

For our reasons, we'll have some access to that revenue to actually try and help save lives.

Sorry for the long post, but that's my take on why more Americans know about Snookie or the Kardashians than know about severe weather and it's threat.

[SluggerWx]

Yeah, I kinda hope they were tuned into their GR2AE from the basement and not just chilling on the porch.

Most would rather be the 'Mayor' of a local coffee shop or pizza place on 'Foursquare' for their mobile device instead of paying $250 and then figuring out just HOW to use GR2AE.

Now, if we made GR2AE significantly 'dumber' and basically called it 'Tornado Tracker,' and I mean REALLLLY easy, we might have a shot.

I don't think the market is there for that type of development (and not to knock any/all weather software products out there currently) - they're top notch. Maybe the NWS will buy Gibson Ridge and make a mobile, dumbed down version of GR2AE available for all to use on their devices and peg it to their GPS.

If only we could make that happen...

[SluggerWx]

Okay, it's bugging me a little bit that CNN keeps referring to this tornado as the "second-deadliest" or "tied for deadliest on record", as in this article:

http://www.cnn.com/2...nado/index.html

Yeah, I know that they're going by the "as of 1950" benchmark since that's as far as the official NWS database goes, but come, guys. No one really doubts that the deaths on 3/18/1925, 4/5/1936, 4/9/1947, etc etc. were caused by tornadoes. The overall tornado record might be very spotty prior to 1950, but there's nothing wrong with acknowledging high-death-toll events prior to that.

It does look as if other news outlets (Weather Channel, MSNBC, etc.) are mentioning some of the major tornadoes prior to 1950. Heck even the BBC had a little sidebar on their website that listed some significant past tornado events, including the 1932 Deep South outbreak and the Natchez tornado of 1840.

I would honestly rather them say "OMG - WORST TORNADO EVERR RECORDED ON EARTH" and have that be the entire article with any of the devastating pictures from Joplin. Seriously.

If that were the headline in the paper or on news websites for a week, maybe people would FINALLY start paying attention! We can't make most Americans like us, so maybe we should just translate into phrases and sentences they understand?

[SluggerWx]

I don't know if I agree with that. It's not like there aren't trees in a city like Oklahoma City.

Hoosier - I'm talking about % of trees relative to a square mile area. Of course there are trees in Oklahoma, but...

Surely that data exists. A quick topographical glance into Google Earth can also verify. Or, here's a study:

http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/194

Look at the forestation density (near the end of the .PDF) of Alabama versus Oklahoma.

The PDF is a good glance through, and you'll notice a picture and a table.

[on_wx]

Some of what you say may be true. An example could be the Christchurch 2011 earthquake. Every major news outlet carried the story for a day, but the NZ government didn't begin to release damage numbers or fatality numbers for three days. By then, aside from Australian and NZ news outlets, the rest had moved on to other stories. That earthquake killed 181 people and they don't even know how they will rebuild the city of 375,000 because it's been so badly damaged. Yet, you never heard any follow up story because the figures weren't made clear for weeks.

[mcalvert]

Going back to the wording issue ("Emergency" vs. "Warning", "Large, Violent Tornado" vs. "Tornado reported", etc.), I sometimes wonder if our "pinpoint" warnings don't sometimes actually cause problems.

The issue with Hurricane Charley was that it both intensified rapidly AND it took a path that was on the eastern extent of the official NHC track, which was oriented along a long stretch of north-south coast which meant that a 1 degree shift in bearing could produce a 30 to 40 mile shift in landfall even when only a couple of hours offshore. Residents of Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda made the assumption that the hurricane would follow the centerline trajectory of the forecast track and let their guard down. They also were expecting a low-end category 2 storm instead of an intensifying category 4. When both forecast trajectory and intensity changed rapidly just before landfall, they couldn't adjust in time to take adequate precautions.

When I was young, there was no doppler radar and we often didn't get tornado warnings until one was on the ground. So, if severe storms were forecast and approaching, my family sat or slept in a steel-reinforced concrete storm shelter until the storms were past. We didn't take chances at all because we lived along a well-known local tornado alley. Eventually, my parents began watching the television and monitoring the radars online until it appeared that a doppler-indicated couplet was nearby and aiming for them before they took cover. This almost cost them a few years ago. They were watching wall-to-wall coverage and the couplet appeared that it would go well north of them, so my dad told my mother that it was going to miss them. However, the storm cycled and the tornado reformed almost on top of them. My father heard the met on air say that the circulation appeared to be reforming to the south and he saw the wall cloud pass over. It later touched down and caused some damage. He ran a cable down to his storm cellar a few days later and he now watches the wall-to-wall from there during tornado warnings.

[Hoosier]

Hoosier - I'm talking about % of trees relative to a square mile area. Of course there are trees in Oklahoma, but...

Surely that data exists. A quick topographical glance into Google Earth can also verify. Or, here's a study:

http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/194

Look at the forestation density (near the end of the .PDF) of Alabama versus Oklahoma.

The PDF is a good glance through, and you'll notice a picture and a table.

Of course I didn't mean to suggest that Oklahoma has the tree coverage that Alabama does on the whole, but in the case of the 1999 Moore/OKC tornado, I remember plenty of footage that showed a considerable number of trees. Any city is going to have a substantial number of trees which may not be captured well on a national map. Trees definitely factor in, but I think OKC having longer time to realize that a monster was bearing down (among other factors) surely helped.