Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

[MJW155]

Everything that I thought I knew about violent tornadoes and death tolls has gone out the window this spring. It's been a long time since we've seen these kinds of death tolls, and I (like many others I imagine) was lulled into this idea that we wouldn't see this again. I've heard various sentiments in the past few weeks to the effect of "if you get a violent tornado going through a densely populated area, deaths are inevitable". While that may have some truth to it, I cannot help but feel that this is an insufficient answer. Like you Josh, I'm wondering how this happened, given how many violent tornadoes have rolled through significant population centers in the past few decades. Why weren't the Moore-OKC (1999) or Pleasant Grove (1998) tornadoes more deadly, for example?

Could population density in the area at the time of the tornado have anything to do with it? I don't mean population density of Joplin or Tuscaloosa, I mean a lot of people concentrated where the tornadoes hit.

I know building codes are stricter today but does something like that mean anything if the material itself is ****ty? Also, hitting an apartment complex w/ 100 families is a lot worse than hitting a neighborhood w/ 20 families.

[HurricaneJosh]

CNN had an official on the phone today who said up to 270,000 people can be in Joplin for work, shopping, visiting, etc. Seems surely plausible there was a very high number of people in the shopping districts, restaurant districts, driving, etc. Also, with families at home instead of at school and at work...

Someone said on here it's a good thing it didn't strike at night, but if it did then there wouldn't have been hundreds of people in the Wal-Mart that was hit, all the restaurants would have been closed and those tens of thousands of possible visitors would be back in their rural homes, etc.

I really don't know any statistics, I'm just speculating right now, but I'm studying emergency management and there is just so much going on right now my mind is going a thousand miles a minute.

Very interesting-- thanks for sharing this. Given that the population of Joplin is only 50K, that's quite an influx for a Sunday afternoon!

I didn't know you were studying emergency management. I'll be interested to hear your thoughts about all this once the dust settles a bit and we know more.

I guess it depends if a lot of the fatalities occurred in the commercial areas. It looks like it mowed down a lot of residential real estate. I just think having it plow through at a time of day when everyone is completely oblivious is probably worse.

Yeah, that sword can cut both ways. Not to bring earthquakes into it, but it was fortunate that the great Northridge Earthquake of 1994 hit L.A. at 4:30 am; even though people were sleeping, most of the really bad building failures were commercial. The death toll would have been much higher if it happened on a weekday afternoon. On the other hand, the Kobe Earthquake a year later killed thousands because it happened in the wee morning hours-- as the residential failures were much more extensive than the commercial failures in that one.

So many factors...

Everything that I thought I knew about violent tornadoes and death tolls has gone out the window this spring. It's been a long time since we've seen these kinds of death tolls, and I (like many others I imagine) was lulled into this idea that we wouldn't see this again. I've heard various sentiments in the past few weeks to the effect of "if you get a violent tornado going through a densely populated area, deaths are inevitable". While that may have some truth to it, I cannot help but feel that this is an insufficient answer. Like you Josh, I'm wondering how this happened, given how many violent tornadoes have rolled through significant population centers in the past few decades. Why weren't the Moore-OKC (1999) or Pleasant Grove (1998) tornadoes more deadly, for example?

Yeah, it is just really weird. Do you even have any initial theories about what happened here?

[HurricaneJosh]

A more recent comparison is the Tuscaloosa tornado last month. Both were relatively close in strength, both went to cities of comparable size and the total damage area is each community looks to be somewhat similar (Tuscaloosa storm carved a longer path as the city is somewhat larger but the Joplin storm may have been a bit wider). The Joplin storm hit more tightly packed blocks of single family residences whereas in Tuscaloosa more damage was done to apartments. Hopefully we can get an idea of the number of people in the core damage path in Joplin (it was about 6,000 people in Tuscaloosa). Tuscaloosa storm was better warned, more visible and awareness was more hightened in general. Neither of the too community had many dwelling with basments. Mobile homes are a non factor in either case. Tuscalossa was a weekend, Joplin a Sunday.

All variables that will have to be examined as do why so many more died in Joplin.

Good comparison of the two events-- and, I agree, there are a lot of similarities here-- as well as some important differences.

Interesting that mobile-home parks were not a big factor in either storm, as we always tend to view them as death traps in tornadoes.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A more recent comparison is the Tuscaloosa tornado last month. Both were relatively close in strength, both went to cities of comparable size and the total damage area is each community looks to be somewhat similar (Tuscaloosa storm carved a longer path as the city is somewhat larger but the Joplin storm may have been a bit wider). The Joplin storm hit more tightly packed blocks of single family residences whereas in Tuscaloosa more damage was done to apartments. Hopefully we can get an idea of the number of people in the core damage path in Joplin (it was about 6,000 people in Tuscaloosa). Tuscaloosa storm was better warned, more visible and awareness was more hightened in general. Neither of the too community had many dwelling with basments. Mobile homes are a non factor in either case. Tuscalossa was a weekend, Joplin a Sunday.

All variables that will have to be examined as do why so many more died in Joplin.

Maybe this was the biggest factor? I dunno... this will be examined in many ways over the next few months/years

Nasty time

[thewxmann]

Two possibilities for the death toll I'm bringing out here:

1) Chaser videos indicate that many people were still out on the streets when the tornado struck. Is it possible that many people were killed in cars?

2) The tornado plowed right through a large shopping center on Range Line on a Sunday evening. Maybe some people were eating dinner there. Maybe many people were killed there? (Edit: okay this has already been brought up.)

[CapeFearWX]

Everything that I thought I knew about violent tornadoes and death tolls has gone out the window this spring. It's been a long time since we've seen these kinds of death tolls, and I (like many others I imagine) was lulled into this idea that we wouldn't see this again. I've heard various sentiments in the past few weeks to the effect of "if you get a violent tornado going through a densely populated area, deaths are inevitable". While that may have some truth to it, I cannot help but feel that this is an insufficient answer. Like you Josh, I'm wondering how this happened, given how many violent tornadoes have rolled through significant population centers in the past few decades. Why weren't the Moore-OKC (1999) or Pleasant Grove (1998) tornadoes more deadly, for example?

According to this article on CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2...hpt=T1&iref=BN1

Two of the buildings that took direct hits in Joplin were a Wal-Mart and a nursing home. I'm wondering if any of the deaths occurred in those places, both of which would be pretty vulnerable to a tornado. Large retailers are never safe places to be during tornadoes, and have narrowly avoided major tragedies on several occasions (like in Sanford, NC a few weeks ago). And the elderly, unfortunately, seem to be a segment of the population that is especially vulnerable to tornadoes. They may have a reduced ability to physically take cover, especially if bedridden such as in a nursing home.

[thewxmann]

Does anyone know why the winds were estimated at such a specific value-- 198 mph? I thought they rounded to the nearest 5 mph. Can someone shed some light?

It's their way of saying "it's probably an EF5 but we're going to do a detailed analysis to make sure it is, so we're just going to say it's an upper bound EF4 for now."

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any reports if any of the deaths were at the hospital? The structure itself looked mostly intact, even if it was all blown out. The cars/helicopter, etc showed it was hit pretty bad.

The two previous posts by wxmann and CapeFear made good points.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I am always terrified of what happens when a big tornado hits a school while it is in session. The video from the helicopter clearly shows several schools destroyed, one of which looked like the high school or voc school.

[thewxmann]

Weird, I said exactly that this morning on another forum. Totally, dude.

2005 would be a valid comparison if Rita had smashed the Houston-Galveston area

In many ways, this spring has been so much worse - we had not one but TWO events that have changed the way we think about tornado fatalities in this country.

That's two "once in a generation" events within a month of each other.

[Calderon]

A more recent comparison is the Tuscaloosa tornado last month. Both were relatively close in strength, both went to cities of comparable size and the total damage area is each community looks to be somewhat similar (Tuscaloosa storm carved a longer path as the city is somewhat larger but the Joplin storm may have been a bit wider). The Joplin storm hit more tightly packed blocks of single family residences whereas in Tuscaloosa more damage was done to apartments. Hopefully we can get an idea of the number of people in the core damage path in Joplin (it was about 6,000 people in Tuscaloosa). Tuscaloosa storm was better warned, more visible and awareness was more hightened in general. Neither of the too community had many dwelling with basments. Mobile homes are a non factor in either case. Tuscalossa was a weekend, Joplin a Sunday.

All variables that will have to be examined as do why so many more died in Joplin.

4/27 was a Wednesday and the higher populated sections of the Tuscaloosa-B'ham tornado path was a good mix of homes and apartments

[CapeFearWX]

I am always terrified of what happens when a big tornado hits a school while it is in session. The video from the helicopter clearly shows several schools destroyed, one of which looked like the high school or voc school.

IIRC the main high school in Joplin took a direct hit, but everyone was at a graduation ceremony off-campus when the tornado struck, which would be very fortunate.

[HoarfrostHubb]

IIRC the main high school in Joplin took a direct hit, but everyone was at a graduation ceremony off-campus when the tornado struck, which would be very fortunate.

Yeah, the HS is pretty much destroyed. Was just reading their facebook posts...

Big mess for the school district. Good thing graduation was at the college/earlier in the day

Remaining schools and the college being used as shelters, etc

[gymengineer]

Everything that I thought I knew about violent tornadoes and death tolls has gone out the window this spring. It's been a long time since we've seen these kinds of death tolls, and I (like many others I imagine) was lulled into this idea that we wouldn't see this again. I've heard various sentiments in the past few weeks to the effect of "if you get a violent tornado going through a densely populated area, deaths are inevitable". While that may have some truth to it, I cannot help but feel that this is an insufficient answer. Like you Josh, I'm wondering how this happened, given how many violent tornadoes have rolled through significant population centers in the past few decades. Why weren't the Moore-OKC (1999) or Pleasant Grove (1998) tornadoes more deadly, for example?

I think the Moore tornado was just so well covered on live TV as it was still early in its track to the south of the immediate OKC suburbs (wall-to-wall news coverage) that people were as well warned as they ever would be for such an event. That 36 death toll would not have happened with a somewhat weaker tornado and really showed what a monster the storm was to be able to still kill over 30 in such a well-warned situation. The F4 in 2003 that caused F3 damage in Moore didn't cause any fatalities.

As for Pleasant Grove-- maybe it was that the tornado lifted somewhat shy of downtown Birmingham? The Tuscaloosa/Birmingham tornado this past April in Jefferson County went over a similar area and killed 19. I remember the death toll over 30 for Pleasant Grove was already shocking.

But for my entire lifetime until this year, it seemed like around 30 was kind of the ceiling for number of deaths in the most monstrous of tornadoes. Any death toll over 10 in a single tornado was a multi-cycle national news story (like Andover in '91, Catoosa '93).

[HurricaneJosh]

2005 would be a valid comparison if Rita had smashed the Houston-Galveston area

In many ways, this spring has been so much worse - we had not one but TWO events that have changed the way we think about tornado fatalities in this country.

That's two "once in a generation" events within a month of each other.

The 2005 'cane season is a valid comparison to the 2011 tornado season by many metrics-- for example, 1) the high number of storms, 2) the high number of intense storms, 3) these "anachronistic" high death tolls, and 4) the extremely high dollar-figure of damage.

[dan11295]

Re: shopping centers/commercial areas. Historically at least recently there have been very few fatalities in commercial structures, as they are constructed better and they often have more secure areas in their interiors to seek shelter. A well played video today shows people survived in one building by getting in the freezer. People have also used bank vaults to the same affect (not relavent specifically here as it was a Sunday). Big box stores are probably more vulnerable. Will have to see if their were many deaths in the Rangeline area.

[NaoPos]

Man, still can't believe what happened. Never thought we could get much worse than April,27th.

[Ginx snewx]

Fatalities are so high because there was no place to hide from an absolute beast that was unprecedented in Joplin. Luckily there are not hundreds more dead, total devastation.

[AussieStormGirl]

Reuters has that figure as well. So it's the deadliest single American tornado since Udall, KS, in 1955? We already hit that milestone this year, didn't we?

Hi Josh

How have you been? Long time no talk....

Just been watching the footage of the tornado on the news over here. How bloody terrifying! We get nervous about cyclones but to be honest after seeing how huge it was and how much damage it created in such a short amount of time I'd rather be in a cyclone than a tornado any day. Can't believe that they only had 20mins notice - that doesn't give much time to do anything does it?

Hope there are no more tornados like this one....very, very sad for this community.

[HoarfrostHubb]

That debris that was picked up on radar was sick

Debris up to almost 20K feet

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fatalities are so high because there was no place to hide from an absolute beast that was unprecedented in Joplin. Luckily there are not hundreds more dead, total devastation.

I know that the fire chief's house was destroyed, but do we know how bad emergency services were hit?

[Amped]

Been at work the entire day, I can't think of any creative ways of saying Holy ****.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hi Josh

How have you been? Long time no talk....

Just been watching the footage of the tornado on the news over here. How bloody terrifying! We get nervous about cyclones but to be honest after seeing how huge it was and how much damage it created in such a short amount of time I'd rather be in a cyclone than a tornado any day. Can't believe that they only had 20mins notice - that doesn't give much time to do anything does it?

Hope there are no more tornados like this one....very, very sad for this community.

Oh, hey, Mardi! Nice to hear from you. Yeah, I think we're all a little bit in shock from this tornado season. I mean, in the USA we always expect the tornado season to be big, but this one is by far the worst in many, many decades.

[CapeFearWX]

Re: shopping centers/commercial areas. Historically at least recently there have been very few fatalities in commercial structures, as they are constructed better and they often have more secure areas in their interiors to seek shelter. A well played video today shows people survived in one building by getting in the freezer. People have also used bank vaults to the same affect (not relavent specifically here as it was a Sunday). Big box stores are probably more vulnerable. Will have to see if their were many deaths in the Rangeline area.

Yes, the "big box" stores (specifically the Wal-Mart) would be the ones to worry about. There's also a high potential for, at the very least, injuries in any sort of building that has plate-glass facades. The hospital that was hit in Joplin doesn't appear to have suffered that much structural damage, but just about every window was blown out and anyone not in an interior space would have been at serious risk.

An important factor would be whether staff and customers are aware of a tornado's approach and whether they could even get to safe areas in the building. The evacuation order at the Sanford Lowe's might not have come in time had the tornado not been clearly visible and spotted as it approached the store. All large commercial properties ought to have a weather radio for receiving warnings, but this isn't always the case - I know that the shopping mall where I work does NOT have one in their office, although the head-of-security does subscribe to a weather alert service via cell phone. Hearing that the Joplin tornado was rain-wrapped and hard to see makes me very worried that the worst might have happened at one of the stores that was hit.

[catoctin wx]

I hate to ask, but any word on JoMo yet?

[Srain]

I hate to ask, but any word on JoMo yet?

None at this time.

[Ian]

Fatalities are so high because there was no place to hide from an absolute beast that was unprecedented in Joplin. Luckily there are not hundreds more dead, total devastation.

It was sort of a perfect storm though I guess an argument could be made that the cell was ongoing for quite a while before it got there even if the tornado seems to have energized right before hitting. Seems it hit at just about the worst time possible outside perhaps a weekday around the same time. Sure, some may have been sleeping later so who knows, but there would have been less people out and about overall. It's scary that with all the advances there is probably not a lot that can be done from stopping this from happening in the future.

[The Dude]

I hate to ask, but any word on JoMo yet?

I wouldn't draw any conclusions for a while. It could very well be days before he will even have internet access again, and even if he has internet access, he may a number of other things to be taking care of before he checks in here.

[Ian]

I wouldn't draw any conclusions for a while. It could very well be days before he will even have internet access again, and even if he has internet access, he may a number of other things to be taking care of before he checks in here.

yeah.. im sure most people would have a few things to do before coming back to amwx after something like this.

[k***]

yeah.. im sure most people would have a few things to do before coming back to amwx after something like this.

not me. i'm here constantly.