Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

[janetjanet998]

death toll now 116

[Natester]

death toll now 116

Where did you hear that from?

[Hoosier]

death toll now 116

That makes it the deadliest since the Woodward, OK tornado of April 9, 1947, and currently the 9th deadliest on record in the US.

[on_wx]

Where did you hear that from?

Live news conference on CNN

Just unbelievable

[HoarfrostHubb]

Live news conference on CNN

Just unbelievable

MSNBC has that number as well...

What a terrible year this has been

[Hoosier]

Looks like a confirmed high-end EF4 so far but survey still ongoing.

[ArtRosen]

My favorite kind of tornado is the one that forms in an open field, stays in an open field and dies in an open field. I hate this. Hopefully these poor people's deaths won't be in vain and we'll learn something from this that can save more lives in the future. We must learn from this...

[jpeters3]

Looks like a confirmed high-end EF4 so far but survey still ongoing.

source?

[HurricaneJosh]

Clearly, this was a very difficult tornado to warn for, given the speed of development, the brisk motion, the rain-wrapping, the late-day lighting, etc. So, I'm frankly impressed the NWS could even get a warning out in time. Thank God they did.

But the death toll is a bit of a shock. As gymengineer pointed out (above), it's not like this is the first time in the modern era that a violent wedge tornado has plowed headlong into the heart of a good-sized city. I'm curious what made this event so much more deadly than Topeka 1966, Lubbock 1970, Omaha 1975, Wichita Falls 1979, etc. etc. The death toll is just so much greater, it begs the question. Were there a couple of major building failures with lots of people inside? Do people not have basements there?

I hope that someone does a study about this and issues some findings. It could be really valuable for future preparedness efforts.

[mcwx]

EF4 -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/official-fatalities-reported-as-tornado-hits-southwest-missouri/2011/05/22/AFXAiP9G_story.html?hpid=z1

[Hoosier]

source?

http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/nws-joplin-storm-an-955263.html

[on_wx]

that isn't strong enough wording. the warning should have said large and extremely dangerous tornado. and there should have been a tornado emergency.

I don't think anyone realized how big the tornado became. The storm went from very broad rotation and a messy looking hook to extreme rotation and a massive debris ball in just one scan. Look at chaser video, it went from a small funnel to wedge tornado in what feels like seconds. The NWS began using strong wording immediately after.

[NaoPos]

I don't think anyone realized how big the tornado became. The storm went from very broad rotation and a messy looking hook to extreme rotation and a massive debris ball in just one scan. Look at chaser video, it went from a small funnel to wedge tornado in what feels like seconds. The NWS began using strong wording immediately after.

Yeah. Seems like this would be a great tornado to study in terms of how fast, vigorous ,large and "brief" it was. WOnder what was so different from any other tornadic storm in the area compared to this one. All questions mets, chasher and amatuers alike are trying to figure that out.

[Hoosier]

Clearly, this was a very difficult tornado to warn for, given the speed of development, the brisk motion, the rain-wrapping, the late-day lighting, etc. So, I'm frankly impressed the NWS could even get a warning out in time. Thank God they did.

But the death toll is a bit of a shock. As gymengineer pointed out (above), it's not like this is the first time in modern era that a violent wedge tornado has plowed headlong into the heart of a good-sized city. I'm curious what made this event so much more deadly than Topeka 1966, Lubbock 1970, Omaha 1975, Wichita Falls 1979, etc. etc. The death toll is just so much greater, it begs the question. Were there a couple of major building failures with lots of people inside? Do people not have basements there?

I hope that someone does a study about this and issues some findings. It could be really valuable for future preparedness efforts.

There were some bad circumstances as you mentioned, but yeah, I'm surprised. Joplin is practically in the middle of tornado alley so you'd expect preparedness/awareness to be better than most areas. I always thought the next 100 fatality tornado would occur in a sizeable population center outside of tornado alley or at a big outdoor sporting event. I think we will have to take a look at the entire system to see what improvements can be made, but it may be that there are not a lot of practical solutions.

[k***]

Didn't the Hacklesburg/Phil Campbell storm also go from nothing to violent in a super short period as well?

[gcashwell]

Didn't the Hacklesburg/Phil Campbell storm also go from nothing to violent in a super short period as well?

It did develop quickly. But on that day, everybody knew that as soon as a warning was issued, that it was very serious.

[on_wx]

I think we will have to take a look at the entire system to see what improvements can be made, but it may be that there are not a lot of practical solutions.

Everyone in tornado alley needs an underground tornado shelter. All shopping centres, libraries, schools, and campgrounds need tornado shelters. I know there has already been enough debate about the need for tornado shelters since April 27, but come on really... so many lives can be saved it people can go into a reinforced underground or above ground structure. Hiding in a main floor closet in a woodframe plastic siding home is just no longer an option. Something really needs to be done.

Also, stores like Walmart etc should at least be built now with safe rooms in the back.

That is just my opinion, though. It's good there has been a long stretch without extremely deadly tornadoes, but it's just becoming too clear there is really no hope for you when the next major tornado hits a city if you don't have a shelter.

[HurricaneJosh]

There were some bad circumstances as you mentioned, but yeah, I'm surprised. Joplin is practically in the middle of tornado alley so you'd expect preparedness/awareness to be better than most areas. I always thought the next 100 fatality tornado would occur in a sizeable population center outside of tornado alley or at a big outdoor sporting event. I think we will have to take a look at the entire system to see what improvements can be made, but it may be that there are not a lot of practical solutions.

Agreed. It could just be "one of those things". But even a simple statistical analysis of the fatalities-- where they occurred, in what types of structures/vehicles, etc.-- could shed some light on what exactly happened. We need to understand it.

This is like the tornadic Katrina-- a single, contemporary event causing an "anachronistic", "old-school" death toll. In 2004 I would have told you that there's no way in hell that 1,000 Americans would ever again die in a 'cane-- and then Katrina killed almost twice that. Of course, with Katrina, the causes were fairly obvious. This Joplin event is somewhat mysterious by comparison.

[Hoosier]

Agreed. It could just be "one of those things". But even a simple statistical analysis of the fatalities-- where they occurred, in what types of structures/vehicles, etc.-- could shed some light on what exactly happened. We need to understand it.

This is like the tornadic Katrina-- a single event causing an "anachronistic", "old-school" death toll. In 2004 I would have told you that there's no way in hell that 1,000 Americans would ever again die in a 'cane-- and then Katrina killed almost twice that. Of course, with Katrina, the causes were fairly obvious. This Joplin event is somewhat mysterious by comparison.

This year is becoming like 2005 was for hurricanes...and the next couple days look really active.

[HurricaneJosh]

This year is becoming like 2005 was for hurricanes...and the next couple days look really active.

Weird, I said exactly that this morning on another forum. Totally, dude.

[Radtechwxman]

I don't think anyone realized how big the tornado became. The storm went from very broad rotation and a messy looking hook to extreme rotation and a massive debris ball in just one scan. Look at chaser video, it went from a small funnel to wedge tornado in what feels like seconds. The NWS began using strong wording immediately after.

well noted. it did transition very rapidly. if i am not mistaken, there was an outflow boundary in the region with strong 0-1km helicities. the storm really rapidly evolved once it took advantage of that boundary and its shear. instability kept the storm sustained with extreme CAPE values

[Chicago Storm]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

400 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...EF-4 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN JOPLIN...

* DATE...22 MAY 2011

* MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-4

* ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...198 MPH

* ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 MILE

* FATALITIES...116

* INJURIES...400

* THIS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION WAS DETERMINED BY A NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING

FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE STORM DATA.

[on_wx]

Agreed. It could just be "one of those things". But even a simple statistical analysis of the fatalities-- where they occurred, in what types of structures/vehicles, etc.-- could shed some light on what exactly happened. We need to understand it.

This is like the tornadic Katrina-- a single, contemporary event causing an "anachronistic", "old-school" death toll. In 2004 I would have told you that there's no way in hell that 1,000 Americans would ever again die in a 'cane-- and then Katrina killed almost twice that. Of course, with Katrina, the causes were fairly obvious. This Joplin event is somewhat mysterious by comparison.

CNN had an official on the phone today who said up to 270,000 people can be in Joplin for work, shopping, visiting, etc. Seems surely plausible there was a very high number of people in the shopping districts, restaurant districts, driving, etc. Also, with families at home instead of at school and at work...

Someone said on here it's a good thing it didn't strike at night, but if it did then there wouldn't have been hundreds of people in the Wal-Mart that was hit, all the restaurants would have been closed and those tens of thousands of possible visitors would be back in their rural homes, etc.

I really don't know any statistics, I'm just speculating right now, but I'm studying emergency management and there is just so much going on right now my mind is going a thousand miles a minute.

[Hoosier]

CNN had an official on the phone today who said up to 270,000 people can be in Joplin for work, shopping, visiting, etc. Seems surely plausible there was a very high number of people in the shopping districts, restaurant districts, driving, etc. Also, with families at home instead of at school and at work...

Someone said on here it's a good thing it didn't strike at night, but if it did then there wouldn't have been hundreds of people in the Wal-Mart that was hit, all the restaurants would have been closed and those tens of thousands of possible visitors would be back in their rural homes, etc.

I really don't know any statistics, I'm just speculating right now, but I'm studying emergency management and there is just so much going on right now my mind is going a thousand miles a minute.

I guess it depends if a lot of the fatalities occurred in the commercial areas. It looks like it mowed down a lot of residential real estate. I just think having it plow through at a time of day when everyone is completely oblivious is probably worse.

[CUmet]

Clearly, this was a very difficult tornado to warn for, given the speed of development, the brisk motion, the rain-wrapping, the late-day lighting, etc. So, I'm frankly impressed the NWS could even get a warning out in time. Thank God they did.

But the death toll is a bit of a shock. As gymengineer pointed out (above), it's not like this is the first time in the modern era that a violent wedge tornado has plowed headlong into the heart of a good-sized city. I'm curious what made this event so much more deadly than Topeka 1966, Lubbock 1970, Omaha 1975, Wichita Falls 1979, etc. etc. The death toll is just so much greater, it begs the question. Were there a couple of major building failures with lots of people inside? Do people not have basements there?

I hope that someone does a study about this and issues some findings. It could be really valuable for future preparedness efforts.

Everything that I thought I knew about violent tornadoes and death tolls has gone out the window this spring. It's been a long time since we've seen these kinds of death tolls, and I (like many others I imagine) was lulled into this idea that we wouldn't see this again. I've heard various sentiments in the past few weeks to the effect of "if you get a violent tornado going through a densely populated area, deaths are inevitable". While that may have some truth to it, I cannot help but feel that this is an insufficient answer. Like you Josh, I'm wondering how this happened, given how many violent tornadoes have rolled through significant population centers in the past few decades. Why weren't the Moore-OKC (1999) or Pleasant Grove (1998) tornadoes more deadly, for example?

[SmokeEater]

that isn't strong enough wording. the warning should have said large and extremely dangerous tornado. and there should have been a tornado emergency.

The tornado dropped literally 5-10 miles west of town, if that. Before that it was only a funnel cloud. Add in that it was rain wrapped, it was the perfect storm so to speak. Nobody even knew the extent of the damage it did until after it passed through town. It was warned since it was in KS, people had plenty of warning. The NWS did the best job they could, it dropped down so fast, they had no idea what size it was, or the need for a TE. People should have been taking shelter no matter what, whether it was a TE or not, made no difference.

[SmokeEater]

i totally agree. all warnings should be treated the same. take shelter. but i was just shocked there wasn't a tornado emergency when multiple spotters reported a large wedge doin damage

The spotter reports of damage, were not until the tornado had passed. And not one said a large wedge. They said extreme damage yes, but nothing until after it passed.

[Radtechwxman]

The spotter reports of damage, were not until the tornado had passed. And not one said a large wedge. They said extreme damage yes, but nothing until after it passed.

i know. i am just sayin that when the tornado was touching down just west of town it went large fast and was seen by spotters. but i do agree that it all happened so fast. the NWS did the best they could.

[HurricaneJosh]

Does anyone know why the winds were estimated at such a specific value-- 198 mph? I thought they rounded to the nearest 5 mph. Can someone shed some light?

[dan11295]

A more recent comparison is the Tuscaloosa tornado last month. Both were relatively close in strength, both went to cities of comparable size and the total damage area is each community looks to be somewhat similar (Tuscaloosa storm carved a longer path as the city is somewhat larger but the Joplin storm may have been a bit wider). The Joplin storm hit more tightly packed blocks of single family residences whereas in Tuscaloosa more damage was done to apartments. Hopefully we can get an idea of the number of people in the core damage path in Joplin (it was about 6,000 people in Tuscaloosa). Tuscaloosa storm was better warned, more visible and awareness was more hightened in general. Neither of the too community had many dwelling with basments. Mobile homes are a non factor in either case. Tuscalossa was a weekend, Joplin a Sunday.

All variables that will have to be examined as do why so many more died in Joplin.