Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

[Master of Disaster]

Politicians should not be allowed to use subjective statements like "Common Good" and "What the American people want" because they use them to promote their own agenda.

Apparently Homeless people on the streets look nicer than a trailer park. so not accepting the trailers is for the common good.

Couldn't agree more.

[wxmeddler]

It is so great that you all are such a tight knit community down there. I'm sure the "lean on me" mantra is echoed strongly right now.

[JoMo]

Just found this Emergency Services Audio of the event. I'm fairly certain that this is JASCO (Jasper County) and Newton County. I'm just now listening to it so I don't know what all is said.

[Joplinmet]

Just found this Emergency Services Audio of the event. I'm fairly certain that this is JASCO (Jasper County) and Newton County. I'm just now listening to it so I don't know what all is said.

Listened to about 10 minutes of it, that is crazy. I will have to listen to more here in a bit.

[catoctin wx]

I have been reading some articles that make statements about the wind speeds approaching 250 mph in this tornado. for example:

On May 22, 2011, an EF-5 category tornado with winds between 225 and 250 mph slammed Joplin, Mo., a town of about 50,000, causing more than 140 deaths and an estimated $3 billion in damage.

I'm sure it's been covered in this thread and others, but does anybody have a link to a NWS survey that gives wind speeds this high? I've seen the Greg Forbes post about it, but I didn't see a link to an official survey. All I can find is winds in excess of 200 mph on the NWS site.

thanks

[HurricaneJosh]

I have been reading some articles that make statements about the wind speeds approaching 250 mph in this tornado. for example:

I'm sure it's been covered in this thread and others, but does anybody have a link to a NWS survey that gives wind speeds this high? I've seen the Greg Forbes post about it, but I didn't see a link to an official survey. All I can find is winds in excess of 200 mph on the NWS site.

thanks

Yeah, we were talking about this above. The highest official estimate right now is the "greater than 200 mph"-- however, reputable sources were suggesting instantaneous winds up to 225-250 mph. But it's unclear 1) whether that will be at some point considered official and 2) whether instantaneous winds would count, as a tornado is rated as per the max estimated 3-sec gust.

[catoctin wx]

Yeah, we were talking about this above. The highest official estimate right now is the "greater than 200 mph"-- however, reputable sources were suggesting instantaneous winds up to 225-250 mph. But it's unclear 1) whether that will be at some point considered official and 2) whether instantaneous winds would count, as a tornado is rated as per the max estimated 3-sec gust.

ok, thanks Josh. I didn't read back through much of the thread, but I thought it might be something like this. It would be nice to get clarification from the NWS on this topic since the numbers are being thrown around in the media. Part of my job is to determine the worse case meteorological conditions possible at given sites around the country. Having wind speeds approaching 250 mph would be a special case for sure.

[HurricaneJosh]

ok, thanks Josh. I didn't read back through much of the thread, but I thought it might be something like this. It would be nice to get clarification from the NWS on this topic since the numbers are being thrown around in the media. Part of my job is to determine the worse case meteorological conditions possible at given sites around the country. Having wind speeds approaching 250 mph would be a special case for sure.

Seriously!

Sounds like an interesting task you have to do. If you want any inputs Re: worst-case hurricane conditions at any location, let me know. I'm essentially a walking almanac of the NHC's ongoing reassessment of historic storms-- which ties directly into the question of what each location can expect to receive.

Sorry to go OT...

[JoMo]

NWS team is coming to see how people responded to the warning and how they survived.

"Low end EF-5" was described several times in this article.

http://www.joplinglobe.com/local/x1517687342/Joplin-tornado-to-prompt-research

[HurricaneJosh]

NWS team is coming to see how people responded to the warning and how they survived.

"Low end EF-5" was described several times in this article.

http://www.joplinglobe.com/local/x1517687342/Joplin-tornado-to-prompt-research

Weird-- I'm almost disappointed with that assessment! We were all expecting this one to break some kind of record in terms of estimated wind speed.

[wxmx]

Weird-- I'm almost disappointed with that assessment! We were all expecting this one to break some kind of record in terms of estimated wind speed.

Taking into account that most EF-5 (not F5) tornadoes have been low end (within 10 mph from the EF5 baseline), it's not a surprise, it is?...even 215mph would be low end, i guess.

[tornadotony]

Low-end EF5 is such a joke. That's like saying "small blue whale" or "poorest billionaire." It's stupid.

[HurricaneJosh]

Taking into account that most EF-5 (not F5) tornadoes have been low end (within 10 mph from the EF5 baseline), it's not a surprise, it is?...even 215mph would be low end, i guess.

But then why even say "low-end", if that's the norm?

P.S. I would consider 205 mph low-end, but not 210 mph or more. Given that each scale range is only ~30-35 mph, I would consider 10 mph above the threshold well into that range.

[wxmx]

But then why even say "low-end", if that's the norm?

P.S. I would consider 205 mph low-end, but not 210 mph or more. Given that each scale range is only ~30-35 mph, I would consider 10 mph above the threshold well into that range.

What would be a high-end EF5?

[HurricaneJosh]

What would be a high-end EF5?

Since the scale is open-ended, there can be no high-end.

[wxmx]

Since the scale is open-ended, there can be no high-end.

Would a 145kt Cat 5 hurricane be low end? That's ~10mph above the cat 5 baseline

[HurricaneJosh]

Would a 145kt Cat 5 hurricane be low end? That's ~10mph above the cat 5 baseline

Personally, I consider 140 kt low-end Cat 5 and 145 kt borderline low-end/medium.

But that's beside the point, because with 'canes, it's totally different. Although the SS scale is open-ended, hurricane winds are actually be measured (as opposed to exclusively estimated based on damage), and based on this, we have a good idea of the upper limit in the N Atlantic, which seems to be ~165 kt. So although the scale is open-ended, decades of recon data give us a pretty-clear upper limit. Given this, one can say:

140-145 kt = low-end

150-155 kt = medium

160-165 kt = high-end

With tornadoes, this is all theoretical. With the new EF scale, which has only been applied for a few years, we really have no idea what the upper limit is, and so saying "low-end" or "high-end" doesn't make sense. Twenty years from now, surveyors can come to the conclusion that tornado wind speeds really can't exceed 220 mph-- in which case, 210 mph wouldn't be "low end"-- whereas if they estimate some tornadoes have winds of 250 mph, then 210 mph would be "low-end".

[JoMo]

http://www.riversidemo.com/police/officer-jeff-taylor-passes-away

Police officer that was struck by lightning on May 23rd while helping in Joplin died this morning.

[wxmx]

Personally, I consider 140 kt low-end Cat 5 and 145 kt borderline low-end/medium.

But that's beside the point, because with 'canes, it's totally different. Although the SS scale is open-ended, hurricane winds are can actually be measured (as opposed to exclusively estimated based on damage) and based on this, we have a good idea of the upper limit in the N Atlantic, which seems to be ~165 kt. So although the scale is open-ended, decades of recon data give us a pretty-clear upper limit. Given this, one can say:

140-145 kt = low-end

150-155 kt = medium

160-165 kt = high-end

With tornadoes, this is all theoretical. With the new EF scale, which has only been applied for a few years, we really have no idea what the upper limit is, and so saying "low-end" or "high-end" doesn't make sense. Twenty years from now, surveyors can come to the conclusion that tornado wind speeds really can't exceed 220 mph-- in which case, 210 mph wouldn't be "low end"-- whereas if they estimate some tornadoes have winds of 250 mph, then 210 mph would be "low-end".

I really understood your point from the beginning, I was playing devil's advocate. Also I thought your range for low-end EF-5 was really restrictive... being that EF-5 baseline is >200mph and 210mph wasn't a low-end in your opinion, you left only 205mph as the unique value for low-end EF-5s (going by 5mph increments)... but I see your point about the realistic upper end in windspeed of a tornado (which I think it can be >220mph)

[HurricaneJosh]

I really understood your point from the beginning, I was playing devil's advocate. Also I thought your range for low-end EF-5 was really restrictive... being that EF-5 baseline is >200mph and 210mph wasn't a low-end in your opinion, you left only 205mph as the unique value for low-end EF-5s (going by 5mph increments)... but I see your point about the realistic upper end in windspeed of a tornado (which I think it can be >220mph)

The EF scale has been used for 4 years now, and the sample set of EF5s is very small. From this sample set, I haven't seen any value over 210 mph mentioned. Given this, it seems logical that the low-end would be restricted to 205 mph, or else every single observed EF5 is "low-end", and the descriptor therefore has no meaning. If the reports start mentioning tornadoes with winds of 230 mph, then perhaps I could consider 210 mph "low-end" as well. Right now, though, 210 mph seem to be the "high end".

[AtticaFanatica]

If there's no structure/DI deemed strong enough to withstand winds >210 mph, then that's all they can estimate. It's an inherent limitation to the rating process and why the wind estimates, particularly in EF-5 tornadoes, tell one very little.

[HurricaneJosh]

If there's no structure/DI deemed strong enough to withstand winds >210 mph, then that's all they can estimate. It's an inherent limitation to the rating process and why the wind estimates, particularly in EF-5 tornadoes, tell one very little.

Agreed. But what about the hospital, Walmart, and Home Depot? Those structures structures all survived to some degree, and I believe they would all at least partially withstand 210-mph winds-- so I would think they could give clues Re: higher speeds-- no?

[wxmx]

If there's no structure/DI deemed strong enough to withstand winds >210 mph, then that's all they can estimate. It's an inherent limitation to the rating process and why the wind estimates, particularly in EF-5 tornadoes, tell one very little.

But there are structures that can withstand winds >210 ... though they are not that common (think reinforced concrete structures). Not sure if the gap between those type of structures and well built structures that can't withstand winds >210 mph is large, or if there's no calibration for the kind of winds that could destroy the "super-structures". IOW, what would be the kind of damage for 220mph? for 250mph?

[Joplinmet]

Here is my story of the historic May 22nd, 2011 Joplin tornado.

1pm: I am outside and working on getting the boat de winterized for the season. However, I was amazed at how warm and windy it was. I saw the big puffy cumulus clouds and I just had a thought, get on the computer and see what is going on. I knew we had a severe threat for that day, but I wasn't watching it very closely as it was my day off. So I go inside and look at the set-up. We were in a moderate risk for severe weather and the airmass was extremely unstable. We were pushing 6000 joules on cape which is very high. I though I better finish up the boat quickly and tarp and get it put back up fast before any storms decide to blow up. I call meteorologist Brian Davis (our weekend meteorologist) and tell him to get into work now, you need to watch these storms as they blow up.

1:40pm facebook post.

Extremely unstable airmass. Tornado watch is in effect with extremely strong supercells blowing over the next couple of hours. The main threat is large hail and strong tornadoes. Looks like I better go to work.

3pm: Arrive at work with a severe thunderstorm warning in eastern Wilson county and western Labette county KS. I continue to watch these storms closely.

4pm: Tornado warning out for eastern Labette county as funnel clouds are being reported. The storm continues to sink slowly to the SE.

5pm: Tornado warning continue for eastern Cherokee county KS. The storm is getting ready to move into the western metro of the Joplin area. At this time I call my wife who lives in the northern metro area. I tell her to keep her phone near her. We have a plan on what to do if a tornado approaches my home. My house got hit in the Carl Junction tornado in 2003, so I have always figured out a plan on how to keep my family safe. I tell my wife I will ONLY call you if your in the direct path of the storm.

5:30pm: Confirmed reports of funnel clouds east of Galena and the western side of Joplin. I go to wall to wall coverage. But I have no idea what is about to happen.

5:45pm: Still wall to wall coverage with confirmed reports of a tornado on the SW side of Joplin. I continue with my wall to wall showing the radar and in pinpointed where I thin the tornado maybe. We start using tower cam at 7th and Rangeline and looking back to the west southwest. However, from our angle the tornado is rain rapped. I can't see the monster wedge working through. I continue with the tornado warnings.

5:50pm: I can see glimpses of the wedge tornado on our tower cam. At this time it is approaching main and 20th street. I know it is doing damage, but I didn't know to what extent. At this time we weren't getting any reports in on what it was doing. All I knew was it was tearing through down and we were getting some damage.

5:55pm: Debre is being picked up on our tower cam as the tornado smashes into Rangeline road. At this point I realize this is a major tornado doing massive damage across the Joplin metro. our tower cam goes out as it looses power as the tornado passes Rangeline. I continue the wall to wall coverage of the tornado passing through the city. Still at this point in time I know it has done damage, but I still don't know to what extent.

6:05pm: I continue with the coverage and watching the hook on the radar very close to the 249 and I-44 intersection. I remember thinking this massive tornado is going to go right across the interstate. I get some damage reports in of power polls down on the west side of Joplin. Next report says some house structures damaged. So I knew we had damage but again I still didn't know how bad it was going to be. My mentor Bryan Busby try's to call me from Kansas City. He is seeing if I am ok and trying to get info from me to get out on the news in Kansas City.

6:20pm: Tornado warning continue for eastern Jasper and northern Newton County. Also Barry county as it is now just dropping some brief smaller tornados in Barry county. I am continuing to stay on air and go over these storms and give the damage reports that are coming in. At this time I knew St. Johns took a hard hit. I report that houses are gone and people are trapped in their homes. Also at this time I get reports in of Rangeline hard hit and 40 cars and semi's flipped on I-44. This is when it hit me that this is going to become a historic event.

7pm: We still have numerous severe thunderstorm warning across the region. I continue the coverage with our severe thunderstorm warnings and reporting the damage reports. Everyone is in at the station now helping out. Dowe is getting ready to come down to the studio so we can tag team this event. He goes over damage and I go over what is going on at that time and what has happened. I get a call from my wife saying she find her sister. She asked me if she was in the path. I told her yes, her house probably got hit. I also find out at least 5 people at our work went through the tornado, but are unaccounted for at that time.

7:30pm: Severe thunderstorms continue. Dowe and I are still on air giving the lastest damage reports. This is the time we get in a number of 24 dead. I remember thinking during the May 4th, 2003 outbreak with 3 EF-4 or 5 tornadoes that ripped through the viewing area at the same time, we lost 22 people. Now just under 2 hours after this tornado hit Joplin, the death toll was already higher than that. Finally my sister in law is found. She was not home when the tornado hit. I find out that 8 people at work got hit by the tornado and at least one is injured. My phone is over loaded with family calling to see if we are all right. I send a brief face book message out saying "I am ok, my family is ok. Very busy at work and I will get back to you all later."

10pm: Dowe and I continue are live coverage and we now know the full effect of what has happened. We both sit in disbelief as we are reporting this massive historic tornado and what it did.

Sunday May 22nd, 2011 with never leave my mind. This is the second tornado to hit the Joplin metro in 8 years. I knew that day was going to be a big day by looking at how unstable the atmosphere was. That is why I decided to go to work on that Sunday afternoon. I remember once I got into work thinking how similar this is to May 4th, 2003. It was warm and very windy with high dewpoints and just sticky outside. Just like on May 4th. It was a Sunday afternoon, just like May 4th. When I got to work I looked at the TV and saw that golf was playing on KOAM, just like May 4th.

This tornado had plenty of warning lead time. We had numerous tornado warnings as it working into the metro area. However, this storm was mainly producing just funnel clouds. The problem here is we saw this storm produce a funnel cloud to a major tornado in about 1 minute of time. And it just happened to drop in west Joplin. I feel like I did everything I could. I knew 5 weeks in advance that we would have a good chance for severe weather on that day by using my long range forecasting pattern. But I can't tell that far in advance that large tornadoes are possible. A few days out I can tell that we could have some tornadoes. Once Sunday rolled around, that is when I know strong tornadoes are very possible in our viewing area. It just happened to strike a highly populated area.

The past two weeks have been kind of a blur. I feel so bad for everyone that was effected by this terrible event. I live and breath weather. I love winter storms, I love severe weather and I love to watch tornadoes. But when a tornado does damage and takes peoples life, it makes me sick to my stomach. My thoughts and prayers go out to everybody effected.

So what can we do? The most important thing is know when severe weather is possible. Pay attention to the weather on those days. Get weathercall. This is a produce that is only $7 dollars per year and will call your cell phone if you are in the direct path of the storm. Plus we have a business weathercall that lets you know if your business is in the path. Also for smart phone users, no matter where you are located if you cell phone signal is in the path of a storm you will get a call. When we have tornado warnings, take them seriously. I know that 9 out of 10 times they are usually funnel clouds or very weak tornadoes. The that one time will also get you. You have to look at each warning like this is the the one.

[catoctin wx]

But there are structures that can withstand winds >210 ... though they are not that common (think reinforced concrete structures). Not sure if the gap between those type of structures and well built structures that can't withstand winds >210 mph is large, or if there's no calibration for the kind of winds that could destroy the "super-structures". IOW, what would be the kind of damage for 220mph? for 250mph?

I don't think he was saying that there are no structures that can withstand those wind speeds. He's saying that if there are none in the path of the tornado, then they have no basis to say that the extreme wind speeds were present.

[The Dude]

Here is my story of the historic May 22nd, 2011 Joplin tornado.

Thanks for sharing your story of that horrible day.

It sounds like you did everything humanly possible, and I have no doubt that your efforts saved many lives.

[wxmx]

I don't think he was saying that there are no structures that can withstand those wind speeds. He's saying that if there are none in the path of the tornado, then they have no basis to say that the extreme wind speeds were present.

Ok, gotcha. This limitation is for all tornado ratings, but they show more often the stronger the tornado.

[catoctin wx]

Ok, gotcha. This limitation is for all tornado ratings, but they show more often the stronger the tornado.

I would think so. The number of buildings that can withstand 210 mph winds is likely pretty small, so the likelyhood of them actually getting hit is tiny. So even if the winds were that high, there is no way of being able to prove it

[AtticaFanatica]

I would think so. The number of buildings that can withstand 210 mph winds is likely pretty small, so the likelihood of them actually getting hit is tiny. So even if the winds were that high, there is no way of being able to prove it

Exactly

[Memphis Weather]

First off...I agree..."low-end" EF5 is not a good term to use...though I understand why it does get used. EF5 is EF5 by that point...but the implication is probably something between 200 and 210mph.

My main question is...why did the Springfield WFO MIC go on-air for a live interview to a TV station and explicitly state that they estimate the strongest winds at 225-250mph if that either wasn't true...or they just didn't have enough confidence to go with such a number yet. I would not have been expecting an MIC especially to throw out a number like that unless they were pretty sure of it (even if it never appeared on official statements)...so I think that's why it got reported so much that day when the interview aired. Even TWC was quoting that interview several times.

If it wasn't that strong...that doesn't bother me in the end...I do trust what all the teams have been doing on the ground there...which I can't imagine being tasked to do...but I would like to know how an MIC let that slip if it wasn't true or just wasn't credible to that point of the survey.