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May 24 Plains/MW Severe Threat


Helicity

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ICT's usual Noon AFD Updated on a severe outbreak day

000

FXUS63 KICT 241722

AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE OK

PANHANDLE/WESTERN KS WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING CU NOW SHOWING UP

OVER FAR SW KS. THIS IS LIKELY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER MID

LEVEL AIR NEEDED TO ERODE CAP. THEREFORE FEEL THAT INITIATION ALONG

THE DRYLINE COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 2 PM WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DUE TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HIGH END SEVERE

WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF SYNOPTIC

LOW LEVEL TURNING...FEEL THE BEST LONGER TRACK TORNADO THREAT SHOULD

INITIALLY BE FOR STORMS THAT CAN RIDE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

WHICH EXTENDS FROM MCPHERSON TO NEAR HUTCHINSON. AFTER 22Z THE LOW

LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER TRACK TORS ACROSS MORE

OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN AVOID BEING CONTAMINATED

BY OTHER STORMS. WITH THIS STRONG OF A WAVE COMING OUT LIKELY

GENERATING NUMEROUS STORMS...FEEL STORM INTERACTION SHOULD BE THE

BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR LONGER TRACK TORS. HOWEVER HOW THIS

PLAYS OUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN QUESTION UNTIL THE STORMS ACTUALLY

INITIATE.

LAWSON

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Reed just tweeted:

NWS advising people to stay off I-35 and I40 in OK and southern KS this afternoon through overnight

:yikes:

What?? You are telling folks to stay off 2 of the 3 biggest highways in Oklahoma...ain't gonna happen. Next they are gonna say stay off of I44!

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I'm amazed to read that the NWS is advising people to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and southern KS today, not from a safety point but from history. Has that ever formally happened before initiation? 5/3/99?

Obviously there is a lack of escape routes on the interstate versus another type of highway or road...but I never recall such a statement either

SPC AWW 241745

WW 356 TORNADO OK TX 241750Z - 250300Z

AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

45WNW PNC/PONCA CITY OK/ - 25SSW FTW/FORT WORTH TX/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /37N END - 34SW DFW/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

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Obviously there is a lack of escape routes on the interstate versus another type of highway or road...but I never recall such a statement either

SPC AWW 241745

WW 356 TORNADO OK TX 241750Z - 250300Z

AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

45WNW PNC/PONCA CITY OK/ - 25SSW FTW/FORT WORTH TX/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /37N END - 34SW DFW/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

Is this a PDS? The SPC site has it as a regular for the moment

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Wow, didn't think they'd go 45%. Guess the parameters did it in for them.

The dryline bulge in W/S OK is bad news. Studies have been done that show that the Wichita Mountains near Lawton are a favored zone for localized convergence and storm initiation. The relatively backed mid-level flow today would carry any storm that initiates in that area right towards the heart of OKC, instead of areas further south like Moore/Norman.

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I'm amazed to read that the NWS is advising people to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and southern KS today, not from a safety point but from history. Has that ever formally happened before initiation? 5/3/99?

If true, I am sure it is at least partially due to the recent events in AL and MO. The NWS is undoubtedly determined to do everything in their power to prevent more loss of life.

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9 hour duratation too

DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR

TWO ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. STRONG HEIGHT

FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED

MIDLEVEL TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT A RAPID

INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIR

MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS

IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH

MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO

40-50 KT WILL PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INITIAL

HAZARD BEING VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL VEER-BACK WIND PROFILE

OBSERVED IN CURRENT VADS/PROFILERS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO

LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BY 00Z WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL

APPROACH 400-500 M2/S2. AS SUCH...EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN THE

THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SOME OF WHICH

COULD BE LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG TO VIOLENT.

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more north

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241759Z - 241930Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS AS STORM

INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT

WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR

TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET

STRENGTHENS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19Z TO

20Z ACROSS THE REGION.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN CO TO

THE NW OF A SFC LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL

CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPANDING EWD ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL

KS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN AND

CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE EXIT REGION

OF A WELL-DEVELOPED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS

THE CNTRL PLAINS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND

ENHANCING LIFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND VERY

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF

SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A 35 TO 45 LOW-LEVEL JET

IN NRN OK IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NWWD INTO WCNTRL KS LATE THIS

AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS

MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL KS

WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE.

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I'm amazed to read that the NWS is advising people to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and southern KS today, not from a safety point but from history. Has that ever formally happened before initiation? 5/3/99?

That is pretty astounding. You get this nagging sense of dread about today though in large part because of what we've seen this year.

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