janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Anyone expecting a PDS watch? Very strong wording in that meso discussion. No doubt about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 ICT's usual Noon AFD Updated on a severe outbreak day 000FXUS63 KICT 241722 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE OK PANHANDLE/WESTERN KS WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING CU NOW SHOWING UP OVER FAR SW KS. THIS IS LIKELY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER MID LEVEL AIR NEEDED TO ERODE CAP. THEREFORE FEEL THAT INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 2 PM WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HIGH END SEVERE WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL TURNING...FEEL THE BEST LONGER TRACK TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INITIALLY BE FOR STORMS THAT CAN RIDE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM MCPHERSON TO NEAR HUTCHINSON. AFTER 22Z THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER TRACK TORS ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN AVOID BEING CONTAMINATED BY OTHER STORMS. WITH THIS STRONG OF A WAVE COMING OUT LIKELY GENERATING NUMEROUS STORMS...FEEL STORM INTERACTION SHOULD BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR LONGER TRACK TORS. HOWEVER HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN QUESTION UNTIL THE STORMS ACTUALLY INITIATE. LAWSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Anyone expecting a PDS watch? Very strong wording in that meso discussion. There will be several today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Reed just tweeted: NWS advising people to stay off I-35 and I40 in OK and southern KS this afternoon through overnight What?? You are telling folks to stay off 2 of the 3 biggest highways in Oklahoma...ain't gonna happen. Next they are gonna say stay off of I44! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 What?? You are telling folks to stay off 2 of the 3 biggest highways in Oklahoma...ain't gonna happen. Next they are gonna say stay off of I44! agree that aien't gonna happen... especially at 5 o'clock rush hour either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm amazed to read that the NWS is advising people to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and southern KS today, not from a safety point but from history. Has that ever formally happened before initiation? 5/3/99? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm amazed to read that the NWS is advising people to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and southern KS today, not from a safety point but from history. Has that ever formally happened before initiation? 5/3/99? Obviously there is a lack of escape routes on the interstate versus another type of highway or road...but I never recall such a statement either SPC AWW 241745 WW 356 TORNADO OK TX 241750Z - 250300Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 45WNW PNC/PONCA CITY OK/ - 25SSW FTW/FORT WORTH TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /37N END - 34SW DFW/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 What?? You are telling folks to stay off 2 of the 3 biggest highways in Oklahoma...ain't gonna happen. Next they are gonna say stay off of I44! Just passing along what I've heard/read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 dang..lots o theta-e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Obviously there is a lack of escape routes on the interstate versus another type of highway or road...but I never recall such a statement either SPC AWW 241745 WW 356 TORNADO OK TX 241750Z - 250300Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 45WNW PNC/PONCA CITY OK/ - 25SSW FTW/FORT WORTH TX/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /37N END - 34SW DFW/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. Is this a PDS? The SPC site has it as a regular for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Does anyone ever put any faith in these TORCON values from TWC? They have Wichita/SC KS at a 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Wow, didn't think they'd go 45%. Guess the parameters did it in for them. The dryline bulge in W/S OK is bad news. Studies have been done that show that the Wichita Mountains near Lawton are a favored zone for localized convergence and storm initiation. The relatively backed mid-level flow today would carry any storm that initiates in that area right towards the heart of OKC, instead of areas further south like Moore/Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm amazed to read that the NWS is advising people to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and southern KS today, not from a safety point but from history. Has that ever formally happened before initiation? 5/3/99? If true, I am sure it is at least partially due to the recent events in AL and MO. The NWS is undoubtedly determined to do everything in their power to prevent more loss of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Is this a PDS? The SPC site has it as a regular for the moment It will be PDS as it encompasses much of the High Risk area. Watches within a High Risk are mandated to be PDS. They'll update once all of the official text info is out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm sorry...but what is a PDS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 9 hour duratation too DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KT WILL PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INITIAL HAZARD BEING VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL VEER-BACK WIND PROFILE OBSERVED IN CURRENT VADS/PROFILERS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BY 00Z WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL APPROACH 400-500 M2/S2. AS SUCH...EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG TO VIOLENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm sorry...but what is a PDS? PDS is short for Particulary Dangerous Situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm sorry...but what is a PDS? Particularly Dangerous Situation. Means they're expecting a higher risk of strong tornadoes in the watch, as opposed to a normal tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm sorry...but what is a PDS? Particularly Dangerous Situation....or in the vernacular...Pretty Damn Serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yep it's a PDS, with 90/70 tornado probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The tornado probabilities are surprisingly low given the language used, the long duration and areal extent covered, and the 45% hatched on the convective outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 more north ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 241759Z - 241930Z A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS AS STORM INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19Z TO 20Z ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN CO TO THE NW OF A SFC LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPANDING EWD ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE EXIT REGION OF A WELL-DEVELOPED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND ENHANCING LIFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A 35 TO 45 LOW-LEVEL JET IN NRN OK IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NWWD INTO WCNTRL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The tornado probabilities are surprisingly low given the language used and the 45% hatched on the convective outlook. Took the words out of my mouth - I was expecting probs similar to 4/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 The tornado probabilities are surprisingly low given the language used, the long duration and areal extent covered, and the 45% hatched on the convective outlook. My intial thoughts exactly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The tornado probabilities are surprisingly low given the language used, the long duration and areal extent covered, and the 45% hatched on the convective outlook. Agreed, I think the PDS in alabama was 90/90 if I remember correctly, and I don't think that had a 45% hatched at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If 0-1km 400 to 500 helicity verifies this evening we won't have to worry about probability discussions for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm amazed to read that the NWS is advising people to stay off I-35 and I-40 in OK and southern KS today, not from a safety point but from history. Has that ever formally happened before initiation? 5/3/99? That is pretty astounding. You get this nagging sense of dread about today though in large part because of what we've seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If 0-1km 400 to 500 helicity verifies this evening we won't have to worry about probability discussions for tornadoes. Yep, and it's already up to 300 in northern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 That is pretty astounding. You get this nagging sense of dread about today though in large part because of what we've seen this year. Yeah pretty much the same dread as back in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Agreed, I think the PDS in alabama was 90/90 if I remember correctly, and I don't think that had a 45% hatched at all? I know there was 1 that day that had >95/>95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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