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May 24 Plains/MW Severe Threat


Helicity

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First 45% tornado probs for the Plains states, though, I believe. Also might be the first >30% probs on a 1630 UTC outlook. (EDIT: It's not, April 27 was too).

I do think it's justified, especially over the southern half of the outlook area. Will be interested to see if it verifies up by the OK/KS border.

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Chaser convergence warning is right. Anyone chasing, be VERY careful today, things could get ugly, and roads may get backed up. Pick your roads wisely, have a backup plan in case a road magically ends in a field :whistle:. I don't wanna see any injuries or worse happen in the chaser community, or to anybody for that matter.

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Chaser convergence warning is right. Anyone chasing, be VERY careful today, things could get ugly, and roads may get backed up. Pick your roads wisely, have a backup plan in case a road magically ends in a field :whistle:. I don't wanna see any injuries or worse happen in the chaser community, or to anybody for that matter.

were you up there in Bowdle last year?

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This is going to be one hell of a serious situation unfolding. I am extremely concerned for my friends and family members living in an around the Wichita area and I am bordering on the high risk area.

Hopefully you have a basement, storm shelter, plan of action in place which will likely be needed for you and yours.

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Is it just me or do the 300MB wind fields look better for KS than previously thought?

Things will obviously evolve as the trough deepens/ejects but for right now, I don't see them being that bad come this afternoon.

It does seem that the biggest threat has pretty steadily moved southward over the last day or so.

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I don't mean to be overly sensational, but if it were me I would not get too far away from a car or a radar unless I had a very robust shelter.

I think everyone needs to have a safe plan on what to do today... while I wouldn't recommend running to your car but keeping extra eyes to the sky for sure.

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Is it just me or do the 300MB wind fields look better for KS than previously thought?

Things will obviously evolve as the trough deepens/ejects but for right now, but looking at SPC Meso I don't see them being that bad come this afternoon.

As the trough ejects and closes off during the late afternoon hours, the mid-upper winds on the north side of the jet streak (north of Enid-Ponca City) will back. This is probably not enough, especially before 0z or so, to prevent a significant tornado risk in that area, but I think it's pretty apparent that the best threat is in OK.

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post-1245-0-66960200-1306257806.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241718Z - 241845Z

STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT

HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL

AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A

DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX.

THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK

SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION

OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS

EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65

KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS

STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER

WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN

PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE

STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE

450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO

OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011

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