blackjack123 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This is going to be one hell of a serious situation unfolding. I am extremely concerned for my friends and family members living in an around the Wichita area and I am bordering on the high risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 good post Thanks. That was the only sentiment I could come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 First 45% tornado probs for the Plains states, though, I believe. Also might be the first >30% probs on a 1630 UTC outlook. (EDIT: It's not, April 27 was too). I do think it's justified, especially over the southern half of the outlook area. Will be interested to see if it verifies up by the OK/KS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Chaser convergence warning is right. Anyone chasing, be VERY careful today, things could get ugly, and roads may get backed up. Pick your roads wisely, have a backup plan in case a road magically ends in a field . I don't wanna see any injuries or worse happen in the chaser community, or to anybody for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 ummm have we ever seen a 45% tornado risk before????? cuz this outlook has one SPC put up a 60% tornado risk once http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Mike Smiths Analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Has anyone heard from Jomo? I thought about him after the Joplin Tornado. Hope he is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Chaser convergence warning is right. Anyone chasing, be VERY careful today, things could get ugly, and roads may get backed up. Pick your roads wisely, have a backup plan in case a road magically ends in a field . I don't wanna see any injuries or worse happen in the chaser community, or to anybody for that matter. were you up there in Bowdle last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Has anyone heard from Jomo? I thought about him after the Joplin Tornado. Hope he is safe. See the May 21-22 severe thread...but no we haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 started a seperate thread for Tomorrow to prevent overlap from current outbreak and forecasts for tomorrow http://www.americanw...weather-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I like LAW to CHK as a target if I were chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I live in Tulsa..this is looking kinda scary folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 were you up there in Bowdle last year? LOL, yep. I didnt make it back to the field though...I got stuck on the dirt road by some ahole with his big truck who basically ran me off the road, and into a mud hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I live in Tulsa..this is looking kinda scary folks!!! I don't mean to be overly sensational, but if it were me I would not get too far away from a car or a radar unless I had a very robust shelter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Is it just me or do the 300MB wind fields look better for KS than previously thought? Things will obviously evolve as the trough deepens/ejects but for right now, but looking at SPC Meso I don't see them being that bad come this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This is going to be one hell of a serious situation unfolding. I am extremely concerned for my friends and family members living in an around the Wichita area and I am bordering on the high risk area. Hopefully you have a basement, storm shelter, plan of action in place which will likely be needed for you and yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Is it just me or do the 300MB wind fields look better for KS than previously thought? Things will obviously evolve as the trough deepens/ejects but for right now, I don't see them being that bad come this afternoon. It does seem that the biggest threat has pretty steadily moved southward over the last day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul_B Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Here in Paradise, TX just southwest of Decatur it is very warm and very humid, can see why we have been upgraded to a high risk of severe weather here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I don't mean to be overly sensational, but if it were me I would not get too far away from a car or a radar unless I had a very robust shelter. I think everyone needs to have a safe plan on what to do today... while I wouldn't recommend running to your car but keeping extra eyes to the sky for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIUmetGF Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Plenty of boundaries out there to play off of today. There is a fine line on the DDC radar moving south toward the stationary front. Looks like an outflow from the mornings convection. http://weather.cod.edu/analysis_old/paulradar.pl?DDC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
99lsfm2 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Worth a look: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/oun/player.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I think the SPC outlook reflects the desire to get the word out as strongly as possible...they are doing everything they can to prevent more carnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Reed just tweeted: NWS advising people to stay off I-35 and I40 in OK and southern KS this afternoon through overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Worth a look: http://www.srh.noaa....oun/player.html a VERY good multimedia briefing... not just broadbrushing the issue but really detailing the threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 CU field developing from W. Oklahoma down into Texas along/ahead of the dry line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 My dad is on a business trip to Wichita.. definitely kinda concerned for him but also a bit jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Is it just me or do the 300MB wind fields look better for KS than previously thought? Things will obviously evolve as the trough deepens/ejects but for right now, but looking at SPC Meso I don't see them being that bad come this afternoon. As the trough ejects and closes off during the late afternoon hours, the mid-upper winds on the north side of the jet streak (north of Enid-Ponca City) will back. This is probably not enough, especially before 0z or so, to prevent a significant tornado risk in that area, but I think it's pretty apparent that the best threat is in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 241718Z - 241845Z STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX. THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE 450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Anyone expecting a PDS watch? Very strong wording in that meso discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Anyone expecting a PDS watch? Very strong wording in that meso discussion. No doubt about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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