tornadotony Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 There is a slight hint of that in various RUC soundings even across much of OK, but it's only about 0-10 degrees of backing in the mid-levels. I'm not sure how much of an impact that'll have. Given how incredible the instability/shear combo is on the RUC (even given the high-moisture bias), I'm inclined to think at least a couple violent tornadoes are in order. Yes I see now. No was not 100% accurate. My gut, like yours, says that likely has minimal effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Almost all the hi-res modeling is zeroing in on south-central OK, to my eyes. I can even envision something huge happening in the nothern row of TX counties along the Red River. I know this area hasn't been discussed as much, and is still outside the HIGH, but I'm struggling to find negatives down there. Towns like Duncan, Pauls Valley, Ardmore, and Waurika. Any thoughts on this? anywhere east of that dryline down to about DFW i would not be surprised if a large tornado forms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 The SPC has been issuing MD's for areas that are being upgraded to MDT or High, so I'd assume we'd no before 1630 about whetther they are planning on adding the Sout OK Norther TX to the High risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The SPC has been issuing MD's for areas that are being upgraded to MDT or High, so I'd assume we'd no before 1630 about whetther they are planning on adding the Sout OK Norther TX to the High risk. Doubtful. An extension to the Red River wouldn't be that huge of a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1km vis over KS shows some gravity wave action, as well as multiple boundaries being laid out by that MCS cluster. http://weather.cod.e...atrad/index.php Classic signal for big storms, two nice publications hosted by the AMS, but the third is my favorite read (talks about gravity waves in relation to convective initiation). First Publication Second Publication Third Publication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The way that the hi-res models hang back the dryline so far west has me gravely concerned for the I-35 corridor, including OKC/Norman. The storms should approach maturity just west of I-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Classic signal for big storms, two nice publications hosted by the AMS, but the third is my favorite read (talks about gravity waves in relation to convective initiation). First Publication Second Publication Third Publication Super Outbreak 1974 had a Gravity Wave/Undular bore. Don't take me as comparing that, just a little anecdotal information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Almost all the hi-res modeling is zeroing in on south-central OK, to my eyes. I can even envision something huge happening in the nothern row of TX counties along the Red River. I know this area hasn't been discussed as much, and is still outside the HIGH, but I'm struggling to find negatives down there. Towns like Duncan, Pauls Valley, Ardmore, and Waurika. Any thoughts on this? Totally agree. If this were one of our mock chase games I'd start in Pauls Valley (right on I35). Slightly more conditional, but almost certainly discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I live in Emporia, Kansas which is right on the edge of the Mod/High risk area and my Mom and a large amount of family members who live in the Butler/Sedgwick County Kansas in and around Wichita. Will are areas get really bad today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Someone should issue a chaser convergence warning for today. Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I live in Emporia, Kansas which is right on the edge of the Mod/High risk area and my Mom and a large amount of family members who live in the Butler/Sedgwick County Kansas in and around Wichita. Will are areas get really bad today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The way that the hi-res models hang back the dryline so far west has me gravely concerned for the I-35 corridor, including OKC/Norman. The storms should approach maturity just west of I-35. I'm admittedly getting a bit nervous around here... I'm supposed to go out chasing starting in the early afternoon but it looks like I may not have to go far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1km vis over KS shows some gravity wave action, as well as multiple boundaries being laid out by that MCS cluster. http://weather.cod.e...atrad/index.php Yeah there are just so many boundaries over Central Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanB Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I think another big city to be added to the list today of potentially violent storms will be Kansas City. Several models showing the ingredients necessary for violent storms. Unfortunate part is that it appears to occur very late tonight into the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm admittedly getting a bit nervous around here... I'm supposed to go out chasing starting in the early afternoon but it looks like I may not have to go far... Woah, how'd you get down to Norman, OK? Summer internship I gather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 High risk expanded south to just north of DFW in 11:30 update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Holy f*ck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 ummm have we ever seen a 45% tornado risk before????? cuz this outlook has one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 ummm have we ever seen a 45% tornado risk before????? cuz this outlook has one Yes, the 1630 and 2000 OTLKs from APR 27 did in AL I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Text of the 11:30 update... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...AND NORTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX...MOST OF OK...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHWEST AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...AN INTENSE OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX... ..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+ KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS. DURING THE LATE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF MO/AR WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 the only other day i can remember with a 45% is 4/27 Day 1, Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Holy f*ck. good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 the only other day i can remember with a 45% is 4/27 Day 1, Alabama http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1probotlk_20060407_2000_torn_prt.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Good call expanding High Risk a bit further S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 the only other day i can remember with a 45% is 4/27 Day 1, Alabama 4/7/2006 had a 60% in the 20z outlook, but stuff was already ongoing so was an easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 good post Sometimes words just aren't strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa....00_torn_prt.gif beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 4/7/2006 had a 60% in the 20z outlook, but stuff was already ongoing so was an easy call. exactly.. I can't remember EVER seeing a 45% hatch before the storms started to develop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa....00_torn_prt.gif Beat me to it Yeah April 7th, 2006 and April 27th, 2011 are the only known instances, other than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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