AppsRunner Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 03z SREF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 New RUC is hanging the surface low a little farther West in OK - looking more ominous for the OKC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just pushed out my latest Severe Weather Threat. At this hour the areas with the highest instability is Wichita, KS, Chanute, KS, Hutchinson, KS, McAlster, OK, Fort Smith, AR, Ponca City, OK. SFC CAPE's running around 3,600 j/kg, LI around -12, 0-1KM SRH are 232 m/s, and 0-3KM SRH are around 300 to 410 m/s. Uploaded completed analysis at http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 7 am sounding in, saturated all the way to the cap around 850 mb, it is fairly dry, PW barely over an inch, but the AMA & DRT soundings are much less dry above 850 mb, and that should be headed in the general direction of Dallas, so NWS FWD concerns about dewpoints mixing out too much, I feel a little better that adequate low level moisture will be in place. AMA sounding shows where the stronger winds should be arriving from today. So for the Texas part of the mod risk area, I think things looks reasonably favorable for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Concern growing for the OKC area this afternoon. Stay safe folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'd expect the HIGH risk to be expanded S to the Red River area by late morning. The RUC indicates flow at all levels will be maximized in the OKC-ADM portion of the I-35 corridor, and that H85 winds will not veer much as some earlier GFS runs suggested. I don't really see any negatives for sigtors in this area (LCL's should still be quite manageable, too), and the HRRR has been keying in on it this morning for discrete supercellular initiation in the 22z-00z timeframe. EDIT: I also notice the HRRR is consistently suggesting that truly discrete storm mode may be difficult to maintain for more than a couple hours after initiation today. Still seems quite possible, if not probable, that the sharpness of this shortwave will place a bit of a ceiling on what might otherwise be an outbreak to compete with all the greats in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Nice to see my predictoin of an MCS moving across NC KS come to fruition.......gotta watch taht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 0-1 km EHI on the RUC valid 00z. Looks very comparable to May 10, 2010, but displaced about 50 mi. W, which implies an even higher threat for the OKC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm already getting a plan in place here. I live near Fort Smith, AR, on the Oklahoma side. I'm a mother of two elementary school aged kids, so I don't take chances with their safety. We'll be leaving our home for more substantial shelter if I even so much as suspect that we could be in danger. I've always taken severe weather seriously while other people laugh at me. I can't imagine NOT taking it seriously, especially after recent events. Anyway, I don't post much here, I'm mostly here to learn...but I will be a set of eyes here in the region and will report anything significant that I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Getting ready for the third day in a row of severe weather. Today looks more hit and miss but Wednesday looks more decent in my neck of the woods. So far in the past two days we have had 3 severe thunderstorms warning and one tornado warning. We have also had 5 inches of rain since Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Someone on another forum noted EHI's of 17 on the GFS. That'll be fun XD EHI's of 20 were noted prior to 4/27, and it was described by the local weather office as "1 or even 3 is normally considered high. 20 is something that's never been seen." I'm really not familiar with EHI, but it looks likee a leading indicator for large/violent tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 12z Nam shifted west quite a bit from 00z. West of I35 still very much in the game. All the rain in the last 7 days should help impede the progression of the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 EHI's of 20 were noted prior to 4/27, and it was described by the local weather office as "1 or even 3 is normally considered high. 20 is something that's never been seen." I'm really not familiar with EHI, but it looks likee a leading indicator for large/violent tornadoes. instability and helicity are what make up EHI, there is a related severe index, Craven-Brooks, instability and deep layer shear. Lower level helcity is more important for tornadoes, deep layer shear for all modes of severe. Neither, however, do a good job predicting if storms will actually occur, there are more an indicator of how likely a storm will be severe if one develops than how likely severe weather is. I personally, as an amateur, like to match rainfall forecasts for the following 1, 3 or 6 hours (shorter the time, the better) from a model back to see where I should even care about EHI. Of course, the model may miss a trigger, the short range ensembles and their percentage of models with precip in an area is also useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 here comes my MCS...expecting lameness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 here comes my MCS...expecting lameness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Weather.com "classic tornado outbreak" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 here comes my MCS...expecting lameness Not even warned. I'd road trip to ICT if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 RUC maxes out 0-1km EHI over Norman at 00z...at 16...even accounting for the RUC's high bias that is phenomenal. Additionally, it keeps 850mb winds S or JUST W of due S and has no hint of the veer-back-veer profile down there. Overall, confidence is increasing that this is going to likely end spectacularly badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The 0z 4km WRF finally came out... Things are fairly discrete for a while. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm already getting a plan in place here. I live near Fort Smith, AR, on the Oklahoma side. I'm a mother of two elementary school aged kids, so I don't take chances with their safety. We'll be leaving our home for more substantial shelter if I even so much as suspect that we could be in danger. I've always taken severe weather seriously while other people laugh at me. I can't imagine NOT taking it seriously, especially after recent events. Anyway, I don't post much here, I'm mostly here to learn...but I will be a set of eyes here in the region and will report anything significant that I see. +1 for safety. In response to the bold lettering, some people are just candidates for the Darwin Award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1km vis over KS shows some gravity wave action, as well as multiple boundaries being laid out by that MCS cluster. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The 0z 4km WRF finally came out... Things are fairly discrete for a while. http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ NSSL-WRF is very similar but biased a bit east...also quite discrete... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 1km vis over KS shows some gravity wave action, as well as multiple boundaries being laid out by that MCS cluster. http://weather.cod.e...atrad/index.php Yes it does, should be interesting to see how that all interacts later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Almost all the hi-res modeling is zeroing in on south-central OK, to my eyes. I can even envision something huge happening in the nothern row of TX counties along the Red River. I know this area hasn't been discussed as much, and is still outside the HIGH, but I'm struggling to find negatives down there. Towns like Duncan, Pauls Valley, Ardmore, and Waurika. Any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The 0z 4km WRF finally came out... Things are fairly discrete for a while. http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ I sure hope that doesnt verify...that one supercell goes right over OKC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 RUC maxes out 0-1km EHI over Norman at 00z...at 16...even accounting for the RUC's high bias that is phenomenal. Additionally, it keeps 850mb winds S or JUST W of due S and has no hint of the veer-back-veer profile down there. Overall, confidence is increasing that this is going to likely end spectacularly badly. There is a slight hint of that in various RUC soundings even across much of OK, but it's only about 0-10 degrees of backing in the mid-levels. I'm not sure how much of an impact that'll have. Given how incredible the instability/shear combo is on the RUC (even given the high-moisture bias), I'm inclined to think at least a couple violent tornadoes are in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Almost all the hi-res modeling is zeroing in on south-central OK, to my eyes. I can even envision something huge happening in the nothern row of TX counties along the Red River. I know this area hasn't been discussed as much, and is still outside the HIGH, but I'm struggling to find negatives down there. Towns like Duncan, Pauls Valley, Ardmore, and Waurika. Any thoughts on this? I myself would be somewhere west of 35 and north of the red river if I was down there chasing. The RUC keeps the dryline well west of 35 at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Almost all the hi-res modeling is zeroing in on south-central OK, to my eyes. I can even envision something huge happening in the nothern row of TX counties along the Red River. I know this area hasn't been discussed as much, and is still outside the HIGH, but I'm struggling to find negatives down there. Towns like Duncan, Pauls Valley, Ardmore, and Waurika. Any thoughts on this? I agree, I think the high risk should be shifted to centered on central OK, bounded by the KS/OK border and the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The images are just scary....instability overdone but still, the amount of low-level shear coupled with extreme juice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Jon Davies 12z RUC STP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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