brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Taking a look at the operational and experimental RUC progs out to the end of their cycles, it appears they lend credence to concerns over backing upper flow. To my eye, both look more similar to the GFS than the NAM in their H5 flow pattern by 22z. Starting to find it hard to believe things won't get messy fast N of about an END-SWO line, and rethinking my initial plan to start out near the state line. Damn, closed lows blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This is a MAJOR concern of mine, would like to seee more of an open wave. That ha happened so many times in KS this year, its ridiculous how many times it has. Yeah, a similar example of that was on 5/11 of this year in Kansas. Early morning convection made the setup crap to begin with, but when stuff did fire near Dodge City, it went up, then died out shortly thereafter. Same backed winds aloft may have led to CAA and sinking motion, so your parcels didnt rise. Not to mention on this map below, the area near DDC was in the LR Entrance region of the jet streak leading to sinking air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 going be a record number of chasers tomorrow...most ever. Worst I have seen was 5/19 last year and in northwest MO on 6/7/09. I hate to say it but one of these days, chasers are going be stuck in traffic and a tornado is going to hit them. No kidding, im kinda glad im not going, since its going to be a giant clusterF down there. TWC and Discovery have really made it look like its easy, and anyone can do it, so we get more and more chasers out there each year. Like you said, one day a bunch of chasers are gonna get killed because of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah, a similar example of that was on 5/11 of this year in Kansas. Early morning convection made the setup crap to begin with, but when stuff did fire near Dodge City, it went up, then died out shortly thereafter. Same backed winds aloft may have led to CAA and sinking motion, so your parcels didnt rise. Not to mention on this map below, the area near DDC was in the LR Entrance region of the jet streak leading to sinking air. Yea subsidence has also ruined several set ups this year in the plains as well, or what I suspected was subsidence leading to busts. Just not a plains year it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Day 2 Moderate Risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Day 2 Moderate Risk not surprising one bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Will be intersting to see if WIchita is included in the HIgh Risk that is inevitably coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 not surprising one bit.... i agree Will be intersting to see if WIchita is included in the HIgh Risk that is inevitably coming. and wouldnt surprise me at all if they are included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Will be intersting to see if WIchita is included in the HIgh Risk that is inevitably coming. i would be shocked if it wasn't... I think the biggest risk will be more over Oklahoma but Wichita for sure would likely be in the high risk, that is if SPC puts out one, which is very likely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 High risk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 118 ACUS01 KWNS 240601 SWODY1 SPC AC 240559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND WWD INTO THE PLAINS... ..SYNOPSIS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND ERN CANADA...A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM -- ACCOMPANIED BY 70-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET -- IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE KS VICINITY -- WITH A 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS ERN CANADA...MOVING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING MORE WASHED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WITH TIME. FARTHER W...A LEE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD/NEWD ACROSS KS/OK...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL TX AND A COMPOSITE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND SEWD ACROSS SRN KS/ERN OK AND INTO AR. THIS SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOCUSED ON KS/OK/WRN AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ..CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SEVERAL LARGE/STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE POWERFUL UPPER JET EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN KS AND NEB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A CAPPED WARM SECTOR HINDERS STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN EWD SPREAD OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH 100 MB MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS AND INTO WRN AR E OF THE LOW/DRYLINE. AS THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM EMERGE...A SLOWLY WEAKENING CAP SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON...FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO CENTRAL TX NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. WITH MODERATE/BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW VEERING AND INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO SWLY AT 50 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR VERY SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WILL ALLOW STORMS TO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SEVERAL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS THE STORMS INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS KS/OK INTO WRN AR AND THEN LATER INTO WRN MO. WHILE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION/CAPPING BECOME REESTABLISHED...WIDESPREAD STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS KS/ERN OK/MO/AR. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE INTO NEB/IA AND VICINITY...ALONG WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT. ...NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WWD INTO THE OH/TN/MID MS VALLEYS... SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AWAY FROM LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BELT OF STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF THE OH RIVER...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ONGOING BOW APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION ATTM. OVERALL...EXPECT BROAD/WIDESPREAD ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR AND SE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 05/24/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND WWD INTO THE PLAINS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 High Risk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 High Risk does include wichita OKC and TUlsa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Keep in mind even though Kansas doesn't have quite the velocity of winds at H3, they'll be under the left exit region of that powerhouse upper jet. The mid and low layers will have tremendous shear with high instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 better view of high risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm personally leaning towards Wednesday becoming a high risk as well. My feeling is that the LLJ strength and the backing of the surface winds are both being underestimated. Also, we've already seen the scenario at least a couple times this year where an embedded vort max within the large-scale trough triggers a secondary low/trough which amplifies the low-level jet. It'll be interesting to see whether that occurs during Wednesday's event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 As far as the Tuesday event, if I had to pick out a target area, it'd be the southern half of the High Risk area, roughly in a swath centered along the I-40 corridor. Given the uncertainties regarding the back-veer-back wind profile especially as you go north, I feel that this area has the parameters supportive of significant/violent tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Not a huge fan of the chasing terrain of Day 2, but maybe that means less chasers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm personally leaning towards Wednesday becoming a high risk as well. My feeling is that the LLJ strength and the backing of the surface winds are both being underestimated. Also, we've already seen the scenario at least a couple times this year where an embedded vort max within the large-scale trough triggers a secondary low/trough which amplifies the low-level jet. It'll be interesting to see whether that occurs during Wednesday's event as well. Agreed, I made a forecast yesterday that both days would end up as high risk days. 1/2 correct now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Not a huge fan of the chasing terrain of Day 2, but maybe that means less chasers! Hey, we got some decent chase territory around here in the Flora area.... don't bash us because we aren't pancake flat (btw that's just a joke) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looking like Wednesday evening and night could be rough for Metro Louisville. And Kentucky is probably the worst state to chase in when it comes to the Ohio Valley. Way too many trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm personally leaning towards Wednesday becoming a high risk as well. My feeling is that the LLJ strength and the backing of the surface winds are both being underestimated. Also, we've already seen the scenario at least a couple times this year where an embedded vort max within the large-scale trough triggers a secondary low/trough which amplifies the low-level jet. It'll be interesting to see whether that occurs during Wednesday's event as well. you like read my mind! we have seen that quite a bit and usually results in significant severe weather when coupled with an unstable air mass and intense upper level dynamics. April 27th had the secondary low development and potent low level jet. wed will most likely not reach the magnitude that tmrw will but like we saw in Joplin, it just takes one tornado to change lives forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Not a huge fan of the chasing terrain of Day 2, but maybe that means less chasers! Well, this is only about 5 miles to my north. The view gets hampered a little when the corn matures but still very nice. Those are some of the best visibility shots but overall the area is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 As far as the Tuesday event, if I had to pick out a target area, it'd be the southern half of the High Risk area, roughly in a swath centered along the I-40 corridor. Given the uncertainties regarding the back-veer-back wind profile especially as you go north, I feel that this area has the parameters supportive of significant/violent tornadoes. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Looking at the latest RUC out to 23z, I'd place my bullseye on a 50-mile radius around END. The low-level jet appears markedly stronger and more backed here than along and S of I-40, while mid-level flow is still roughly SW. Even so, your target has the advantage of firehose flow in the mid- and upper-levels. On a side note, storms just re-initiated over portions of central OK. Coverage is fairly low right now, and so long as they move out and/or dissipate relatively quickly, this shouldn't have too much influence on tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 KTUL RUC Sounding 23Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Current RUC favors OK over the more northward positioned 00Z NAM locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Actually could be a worse day possibly on Wednesday if we get that secondary low to develop. Remember the 26th was the day everyone was really talking about when then during the evening we all realized that evening that the 27th was going to be one epic day. Still I think the shear numbers alone blow away what we will see Wednesday. Idk ever seeing that much CAPE and EHI's in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 nice to see ict say CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIALFOR SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Tulsa is mentioning dangerous and potentially life threatening situation evolving for later today but also reports current hydro issues this early AM. I assume flash flooding would subside by later but chasers might still be affected in ne OK. DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 10 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN SOME PLACES AND NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE IMPASSABLE. SEVERAL RIVERS ARE EITHER FORECAST TO BE AT MAJOR FLOOD STAGE OR ARE ALREADY THERE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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