HurricaneJosh Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I guess we're on the same page. Forecasting is not a skill of mine, so I can't comment Re: whether yesterday was hyped. But I think it would be hard to "over-hype" the year we've had so far. It's a legendary year in terms of numbers and human impact. It will be up there with 1925, 1953, and 1974 as one of those years that just comes to your mind when someone says "tornado". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I understand the talk about false warnings and how people tend to get jaded but... it's your life as to whether you choose to take tornado warnings seriously or not. But people absolutely have to be warned so they can at least be prepared. Like in the video from last night, the family that had been watching it on TV and when they realized it was coming for them, they want to the storm cellar... and lived even though their house was wiped clean. Everyone must be held accountable for their own actions or lack of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Yeah people always let whatever has happened recently taint perception. Just like after the 2005 cane season, everyone was ready to predict the end of the world again in 2006. Zero doubt that 4/27 and Joplin helped with the hype. I do agree the high risk was warranted, but this was not an overperformer based on expectations as all, unlike some of the others this season. I don't really see it as hype, ok maybe a little. I see it as a lot more people being alert. It's human nature, unfortunately, to be reactive, and not proactive, when it comes to weather, as well as complacent. Usually, it takes a large scale event every couple years (canes 05, tornados 2011 etc) to get people into gear and remind them. So while we see the events and remember them ( past outbreaks, land falling hurricanes....) and see it's not unprecedented, the general public gets that proverbial kick in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Below is a multi-doppler timeseries from one of yesterday's tornadoes as it moved from near Bradley, OK toward Criner, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I dont think yesterday's event was hyped... the parameter space was incredible and we came within a hair of a major disaster in both OKC and Dallas. That said, the 45% TOR was a bit too much, since many of the supercells north of the Red River seemed to spontaneous dissolve during the 2nd half of the event (undoubtedly due to backing winds in the mid-levels). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 FYI, there were several mobile research radars out yesterday, both on the El Reno tornado and the Canton tornado, so I think some pretty great data was collected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 pretty big day. im sure i wont have fans for saying it but seemed more or less in line (at least tornado numberwise) with other larger plains outbreaks even with the unheard of percentages from spc etc. yeah it is still being counted. perhaps given some extra 2011 love in the leadup... No, I think you're completely right. The number of supercells producing large and/or strong tornadoes over a concentrated region was very impressive... impressive as just about any Plains event I can think of for years, actually. But as Jim mentioned, storm mode and storm interactions became an issue within an hour or two of each cell's initiation. Who knows what might have happened had the trough been a bit more neutral-tilt yesterday afternoon, as many models had suggested in the 2-3 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 This is a timeseries of the initiation of the Chickasha tornado over the course of 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 No, I think you're completely right. The number of supercells producing large and/or strong tornadoes over a concentrated region was very impressive... impressive as just about any Plains event I can think of for years, actually. But as Jim mentioned, storm mode and storm interactions became an issue within an hour or two of each cell's initiation. Who knows what might have happened had the trough been a bit more neutral-tilt yesterday afternoon, as many models had suggested in the 2-3 day range. I'm not trying to downplay it at all, which I'm sure would be expected by some given my bust of a two weeks out there (I may be the only person not to see a tornado this year)... There was just some hyperventilating in the leadup IMO. It could be that we were one small shift away from a much more disastrous situation--and as you note, it did really start off big. Had that continued into the evening in OK and the stuff in TX produced a bit better this might not even be a discussion to have. My "weather job" is heavily tied to communicating to the public, so I tend to look at things in that light. I just think in many situations over recent years the hysteria has grown to a level that is not helpful in many cases. Shoot, we had 400 people in this thread with 6 pages of OMG as a tornado was ripping up a field with a few houses here and there. That's a pretty common occurrence whether or not yesterday was as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I doubt very strongly that there's very many people in OK that think this event qualifies as a false alarm or hype if they weren't personally affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 smh @ silly hypsters like CUmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 smh @ silly hypsters like CUmet Straw man ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 But really, the dissemination of information yesterday in OK was both entirely warranted scientifically, and expertly executed in practice. Anyone who watched the news had any hint of their FAR blues disintegrate quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm not trying to downplay it at all, which I'm sure would be expected by some given my bust of a two weeks out there (I may be the only person not to see a tornado this year)... There was just some hyperventilating in the leadup IMO. It could be that we were one small shift away from a much more disastrous situation--and as you note, it did really start off big. Had that continued into the evening in OK and the stuff in TX produced a bit better this might not even be a discussion to have. My "weather job" is heavily tied to communicating to the public, so I tend to look at things in that light. I just think in many situations over recent years the hysteria has grown to a level that is not helpful in many cases. Shoot, we had 400 people in this thread with 6 pages of OMG as a tornado was ripping up a field with a few houses here and there. That's a pretty common occurrence whether or not yesterday was as a whole. I thought the event was forecast very well among prof mets and other credible severe weather folks on this board. There was an enormous amount of potential, and some it was realized yesterday (although not to the fullest possible extent, but then again few events do). The caveats, particularly with the trough orientation and the backing of the mid-level winds, were clearly identified and outlined by many on this thread. I agree that this could very well have been much worse. If this were any other year, I suspect yesterday would've been more noteworthy. But yeah, there were times yesterday when the weenies were out in full force, with the "OMG! pray for XYZ...people are dying! etc" posts. Honestly, this stuff should be kept to a minimum, particularly in real-time when the flow of new info is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I'm not trying to downplay it at all, which I'm sure would be expected by some given my bust of a two weeks out there (I may be the only person not to see a tornado this year)... There was just some hyperventilating in the leadup IMO. It could be that we were one small shift away from a much more disastrous situation--and as you note, it did really start off big. Had that continued into the evening in OK and the stuff in TX produced a bit better this might not even be a discussion to have. My "weather job" is heavily tied to communicating to the public, so I tend to look at things in that light. I just think in many situations over recent years the hysteria has grown to a level that is not helpful in many cases. Shoot, we had 400 people in this thread with 6 pages of OMG as a tornado was ripping up a field with a few houses here and there. That's a pretty common occurrence whether or not yesterday was as a whole. You've communicated this better than I did. I think yesterday performed up to what the experts (speaking of the good mets here and SPC) expected pretty much. What makes this "less" than some of the others is that it didn't overperform like seemingly every outbreak this year. I think may hobbyists expected that it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 But really, the dissemination of information yesterday in OK was both entirely warranted scientifically, and expertly executed in practice. Anyone who watched the news had any hint of their FAR blues disintegrate quickly. And despite this, 10 people were still killed in OK yesterday, making it the deadliest tornado day in OK since 5/3/99. I think that alone speaks volumes about how bad these tornadoes were, and how much more bad it could have been. And as an aside, CUmet did a great job of dissecting the potential and the possible failure modes yesterday. I'm pretty sure he has already heard enough kudos this year, but an additional one can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I thought the event was forecast very well among prof mets and other credible severe weather folks on this board. There was an enormous amount of potential, and some it was realized yesterday (although not to the fullest possible extent, but then again few events do). The caveats, particularly with the trough orientation and the backing of the mid-level winds, were clearly identified and outlined by many on this thread. I agree with that this could very well have been much worse. If this were any other year, I suspect yesterday would've been more noteworthy. But yeah, there were times yesterday when the weenies were out in full force, with the "OMG! pray for XYZ...people are dying! etc" posts. Honestly, this stuff should be kept to a minimum, particularly in real-time when the flow of new info is critical. I guess part of it is that I view an event like this in the Plains differently than one in the southeast or Midwest etc. Tornado folklore is part of life there. People know what to do. Part of it is random luck too. I don't think I actually used the word hype anywhere... nor do I believe any mention was literal. I would hope we could discuss any slight underperformance as much as we could an overperformance. As noted, I don't think any of the educated talk was unnecessary... and I threw in a few gripes with overall coverage of severe weather these days that don't really have much to do with this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Maybe people's perceptions of things would have been different with a little bit more active moderation by the staff? Maybe then we wouldn't have had 6 pages of OMG. A stickied thread was made and the weenies (many of whom I've never seen in an outbreak thread) rushed in...of course that's going to tilt the expectations in an unreasonable direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Maybe people's perceptions of things would have been different with a little bit more active moderation by the staff? Maybe then we wouldn't have had 6 pages of OMG. A stickied thread was made and the weenies (many of whom I've never seen in an outbreak thread) rushed in...of course that's going to tilt the expectations in an unreasonable direction. Agree, there was some over top weenieing going on yesterday from some people that could post less and read more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Maybe people's perceptions of things would have been different with a little bit more active moderation by the staff? Maybe then we wouldn't have had 6 pages of OMG. A stickied thread was made and the weenies (many of whom I've never seen in an outbreak thread) rushed in...of course that's going to tilt the expectations in an unreasonable direction. Thread was moving really fast. I sorta want to check radar/feeds on my own without having to refresh the thread and delete every 2 seconds. It tends to be the same people with frequent "OMG" "this is not good" "pray for my friend's third cousin and his dog" posts who could be dealt with more harshly. I guess I'm a little too nice sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Thread was moving really fast. I sorta want to check radar/feeds on my own without having to refresh the thread and delete every 2 seconds. It tends to be the same people with frequent "OMG" "this is not good" "pray for my friend's third cousin and his dog" posts who could be dealt with more harshly. I guess I'm a little too nice sometimes. If you dont want to moderate, resign. between the weeniegasm and zwyts trolling, you guys looked totally neutered yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Thread was moving really fast. I sorta want to check radar/feeds on my own without having to refresh the thread and delete every 2 seconds. It tends to be the same people with frequent "OMG" "this is not good" "pray for my friend's third cousin and his dog" posts who could be dealt with more harshly. I guess I'm a little too nice sometimes. Let's see, Sickman, BI earthlight and lord knows how many other Green and Black tags were in this thread yesterday evening/last night. I mean come on, at one point you'd have thought Dallas was being destroyed, flattened to nothing and the Dallas TV media was just ignoring it to pee in some weenies post toasties, but I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 If you dont want to moderate, resign. between the weeniegasm and zwyts trolling, you guys looked totally neutered yesterday. This was a bit annoying during the event, and certainly wasn't needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Not to mention there would be a lot less to delete/moderate/answer reports about if someone on staff had publicly warned people and encouraged people to knock off the worthless posts...you'd then have time to follow the thread because it wouldnt be moving along at a page per 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 If you dont want to moderate, resign. between the weeniegasm and zwyts trolling, you guys looked totally neutered yesterday. lol....I trolled for 5 minutes.....sorry you were so "hurtyhurtz" by an "icepussy" making like 4-5 posts in a 5-10 minutes span and then disappearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Thread was moving really fast. I sorta want to check radar/feeds on my own without having to refresh the thread and delete every 2 seconds. It tends to be the same people with frequent "OMG" "this is not good" "pray for my friend's third cousin and his dog" posts who could be dealt with more harshly. I guess I'm a little too nice sometimes. I'm new to the severe threads-- I don't usually post in them-- but I totally get what you're saying. The prayers and sad faces and "This is not good" and "Lord help these people" posts definitely add a bit of filler, for sure. I'm not against that stuff, but, yeah, once a big event is unfolding and the sh*t is really hitting the fan, it would be cool if folks could think a little more about what they're posting and whether it adds on a meteorological level. This would seem to be especially important in severe threads, where things happen so darn fast. There's just no room for any fat when events change minute to minute. P.S. I'm not against chitchat on the wx side. Certain threads, like the Atlantic Tropical Action thread, are specifically designed to be light and chatty-- sort of an online lounge during the slow periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 If you dont want to moderate, resign. between the weeniegasm and zwyts trolling, you guys looked totally neutered yesterday. Just because you don't realize it doesn't mean I wasn't moderating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 This was a bit annoying during the event, and certainly wasn't needed. I came in...made maybe 4 posts in a few minutes and then disappeared/browsed....the midwest may be the most sensitive little p-ussy b**ch bunch ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 lol....I trolled for 5 minutes.....sorry you were so "hurtyhurtz" by an "icepussy" making like 4-5 posts in a 5-10 minutes span and then disappearing It didn't hurt me...just pointing out how lame it is that the staff just rolled over and let you do your thing. They look totally spineless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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