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May 24 Plains/MW Severe Threat


Helicity

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This is horrific. As I stated earlier, my family and I left our home for a little while for a more substantial shelter. We had pretty high winds come through, but no damage in my immediate area. I was in the hallway of my friend's home, keeping my two kids and her two in the bathroom. It was pretty noisy, more so than I've heard in a while, so I'll be honest and say that I was pretty scared. We're back home now and watching 40/29 in disbelief. (B. Sebo, we'd be watching 5 but its blipping in and out on our digital antenna.) I have an aunt and some cousins in Ozark who were in the hallway taking cover when I called to make sure they were awake. They're fine, but it sounds like Denning has taken quite a hit. (Edited to correct user name mistake.)

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It's the same thing as NROT on GR2AE, that some of us have. It's pretty accurate.

I was thinking about the legend. It would be better if it was numeric so they could adjust their analysis if a tornado for some reason had a weaker signature.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

1242 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTH CENTRAL POPE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1238 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS

TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES

NORTH OF LUDWIG LAKE...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE. DOPPLER

RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

SAND GAP... ROSETTA... MOORE...

MINERAL SPGS REC AREA... LUDWIG LAKE...

DILLEN... DEVILS KNOB... BERTHA...

PELSOR... OZONE... MT JUDEA...

LURTON... HILLCREST... DEER...

COWELL... BEN HUR... WOODS MTN...

TURKEY MTN...

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1248 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250548Z - 250645Z

ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MO/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AN INTENSE/SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED/IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MO/NORTHWEST AR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. A 56 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY NOTED AT FORT SMITH AR...WITH 53 KT MEASURED AT CHANUTE KS IN ADDITION A NUMBER OF MEASURED 40+ KT GUSTS.

AMID AMPLE DVPA WITH VERY STRONG AND A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1 KM/...CONTINUED STORM CONSOLIDATION/UPSCALE GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/WELL-SUSTAINED QLCS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN MO ESE INTO CENTRAL IL...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST/RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AMID AROUND 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HIGH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SRH.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2011

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1248 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO/FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL INTO NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250548Z - 250645Z

ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MO/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST AR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AN INTENSE/SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE...INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED/IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MO/NORTHWEST AR EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. A 56 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY NOTED AT FORT SMITH AR...WITH 53 KT MEASURED AT CHANUTE KS IN ADDITION A NUMBER OF MEASURED 40+ KT GUSTS.

AMID AMPLE DVPA WITH VERY STRONG AND A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1 KM/...CONTINUED STORM CONSOLIDATION/UPSCALE GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/WELL-SUSTAINED QLCS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM NORTHERN MO ESE INTO CENTRAL IL...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST/RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AMID AROUND 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT CONCERN...IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HIGH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SRH.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2011

Great.

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