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May 24 Plains/MW Severe Threat


Helicity

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I didnt really mean severe thunderstorm, I take that back. The damage many areas received, however, is probably comparable to just that.

That's true of every tornado event...the vast majority of the polygon gets "comparable to just that" conditions.

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03Z Severe Weather Analysis is uploaded. Seeing a slight decrease in overall instability values. Highest threat areas now over NE AR into SC MO. Bentonville, AR, Emporia, KS, and Clinton, MO in the highest threat zones. 03Z Values: SFC CAPE's 3036 j/kg, LI -9.2, 0-3KM Shear 42 knots, 0-1KM EHI 4.6. Uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net

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That's true of every tornado event...the vast majority of the polygon gets "comparable to just that" conditions.

Agreed...and I do think some EF-0 or 1s probably did touch down...if not a bunch of cond. funnel clouds...scary night for all involved...thank god it didnt turn out worse.

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WOW...that cell southwest of Ft. Smith is vicious...any confirmed tornadoes with it?

Possible damage in Talahina a few minutes ago, but nothing else. That area is extremely rural and mountainous though, so that is a good thing.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1053 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF HEAVENER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS

IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION... A TORNADO IS

OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...

HEAVENER...HOWE...HARTFORD...MIDLAND...MANSFIELD...HUNTINGTON...

EXCELSIOR...GREENWOOD...BURNVILLE AND WASHBURN.

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For some reason the 0Z OUN sounding is not accessible, but the 0Z FWD sounding is INCREDIBLE. SBCAPE of 3860 J/kg with 0-3km SRH of over 600!

A few bright spots in a tornado year like this one... I have no doubt a violent tornado would've plowed right through the Metroplex if MLLCLs were not nearly 1.5 km high. An incredible case of good luck.

FWD.gif

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