Macintosh Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just updated my SmartModel Output for tomorrow, current zoning in on an area from Tulsa, OK to Bartlesville, OK to Independence, KS to Miami, OK. Don't have specific indicies values as of yet. I think we could see the potential for the strongest Tornadoes in that zone for tomorrow. Thoughts? I'm certainly an advocate for the free flow of information, so don't take this post the wrong way. It's just that I have seen these models run by individuals on home computers posted frequently the past few months and I don't see what value they add to the body of weather knowledge. Again, I'm not saying don't post them. I'm just wondering. It would seem to me that the whole point of a weather model is that it can be relied on to some degree to take current, measurable data and project future weather. Models which require people's "thoughts" as to the validity of the data would seem in my mind to defeat the purpose of a model. When the ECMWF and GFS roll out, we take the info they provide and incorporate it into forecasts. But it's almost like these private models go backwards, we take legit forecasts and attempt to legitimize the model by them. Perhaps you could explain what it is you expect to gain by continually posting these maps? I'm not complaining, I just want to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Long range RUC is maxed out with a broad area >5000j/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm certainly an advocate for the free flow of information, so don't take this post the wrong way. It's just that I have seen these models run by individuals on home computers posted frequently the past few months and I don't see what value they add to the body of weather knowledge. Again, I'm not saying don't post them. I'm just wondering. It would seem to me that the whole point of a weather model is that it can be relied on to some degree to take current, measurable data and project future weather. Models which require people's "thoughts" as to the validity of the data would seem in my mind to defeat the purpose of a model. When the ECMWF and GFS roll out, we take the info they provide and incorporate it into forecasts. But it's almost like these private models go backwards, we take legit forecasts and attempt to legitimize the model by them. Perhaps you could explain what it is you expect to gain by continually posting these maps? I'm not complaining, I just want to know. A very valid question Macintosh. However, since there is a thread here already, I request any response by KSS or any other questions go here: http://www.americanw...__1#entry534991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Anyone have that link for the Extended Range RUC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Another thing that could possibly go "wrong" with this setup is that the trough is so negatively-tilted that the winds back substantially in the 400-600 mb layer especially north of the KS/OK border. This creates a back-veer-back profile that isn't as favorable for sustained supercells. The GFS shows this appearing at 00z, while the NAM shows this occurring after 03z. This is one reason why I feel more confident about the tornado threat on the OK side. I should note that this problem wasn't apparent in previous GFS runs, but the 00z run has the trough quite a bit deeper. Yes, this is the trend I noticed earlier today, and it has me a bit concerned. In terms of the vertical wind profiles, I'm seeing negatives in both KS (too much backing aloft) and OK (too much veering around H85). Both are more pronounced on the GFS than on the NAM. It seems the northernmost couple rows of counties in OK -- say, from END-PNC -- are where both potential "problems" are minimized, even on the GFS. I hate to stray outside the realm of science-based discussion, but I also have this gut feeling that something will work against a truly historic outbreak on par with something like 1991-04-26. It *seems* like big-ticket outbreaks such as those normally occur during years that are already active overall for this region, which is far from the case in 2011, a year in which virtually no tornadoes have occurred along and W of I-35 all spring. There's a first time for everything, and I'm certainly not basing my actual prediction for the event on something so superficial... will just be interesting to see if my gut feeling proves disastrously wrong or not. It's probably worth noting that none of 1991-04-26, 1999-05-03, or 2010-05-10 featured closed H5 lows, at least in such close proximity to the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'll have to agree with the potential for a bust on a historical outbreak tomorrow, closed lows bring in so many issues. Open waves ftw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Anyone have that link for the Extended Range RUC? http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yes, one thing I did notice was that the initial hodographs (esp. on the GFS) had a bit of a kink at the 3-km level (pretty big in fact), which is notorious for killing good setups. At the very least the initial activity ought to contain left splitters. That, along with the initially marginal LCLs, lead me to believe that it'll take some time before supercells become strongly tornadic. (If storm mode goes completely awry, a Tushka like event, which was also closed off at H5.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Long range RUC is maxed out with a broad area >5000j/kg. Concerns over closed lows and shear profiles notwithstanding, I think this is an image that should be taken into serious consideration in terms of its dryline placement. IIRC, everyone was expecting the May 10 outbreak to largely start along I-35 and progress eastward from there, when in reality there were several tornadic supercells (mainly early) which started a couple counties west. For tomorrow, the initial NAM/GFS projection of the dryline position is probably 30-40 mi. W of what it was for May 10, and I can actually see the dryline position at initiation being something like LAW-AVK. If this is indeed the case, then come mid-evening, the populous I-35 corridor may be victim to the more mature type of tornadic supercells that were largely confined to rural E OK during last year's event. Assuming none of the modes of failure rear their heads in a big way, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Long range RUC is maxed out with a broad area >5000j/kg. look at that bulge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Long range RUC is maxed out with a broad area >5000j/kg. holy dryline bulge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I don't think the amount of tornadoes is going to be the issue, although in my opinion it could be A LOT. I am more concerned about the strengh of tornadoes that do form. Latest 00Z NAM values are NUTS! So unless the warm sector gets worked over during the morning really badly, this will be a very nasty day for possible BIG tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yes, one thing I did notice was that the initial hodographs (esp. on the GFS) had a bit of a kink at the 3-km level (pretty big in fact), which is notorious for killing good setups. At the very least the initial activity ought to contain left splitters. That, along with the initially marginal LCLs, lead me to believe that it'll take some time before supercells become strongly tornadic. (If storm mode goes completely awry, a Tushka like event, which was also closed off at H5.) Yeah the 4/14/11 event came to my mind as well, with the shape of the trough and the orientation of the jet streak. The difference is that this time we have way, way more instability and somewhat more shear as well. I think this event is still high-risk caliber. Whether this outbreak ends up being of historic magnitude will depend on some of the caveats that have been discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Concerns over closed lows and shear profiles notwithstanding, I think this is an image that should be taken into serious consideration in terms of its dryline placement. IIRC, everyone was expecting the May 10 outbreak to largely start along I-35 and progress eastward from there, when in reality there were several tornadic supercells (mainly early) which started a couple counties west. For tomorrow, the initial NAM/GFS projection of the dryline position is probably 30-40 mi. W of what it was for May 10, and I can actually see the dryline position at initiation being something like LAW-AVK. If this is indeed the case, then come mid-evening, the populous I-35 corridor may be victim to the more mature type of tornadic supercells that were largely confined to rural E OK during last year's event. Assuming none of the modes of failure rear their heads in a big way, of course. IMO, there is no doubt that the biggest threat tomorrow is in OK. You are right in wanting to watch how much the 850mb winds veer because the GFS does veer them quite a bit. But by far the best upper-level winds are down in OK and with 70-75°F Td in place, this has potential disaster written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F-5 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just updated my SmartModel Output for tomorrow, current zoning in on an area from Tulsa, OK to Bartlesville, OK to Independence, KS to Miami, OK. Don't have specific indicies values as of yet. I think we could see the potential for the strongest Tornadoes in that zone for tomorrow. Thoughts? My thought is that is an image of Homer Simpson passing through one of the new TSA body scanners juxtaposed onto a map of the central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 GFS has LI of -15 to a max of -16 along I-35 in OK at 00Z. The scale on Twisterdata maxes at -15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 GFS has LI of -15 to a max of -16 along I-35 in OK at 00Z. The scale on Twisterdata maxes at -15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yeah the 4/14/11 event came to my mind as well, with the shape of the trough and the orientation of the jet streak. The difference is that this time we have way, way more instability and somewhat more shear as well. Exactly. I feel like May 10 was a setup with a few flaws as well, but the very high instability was able to compensate and pull strong to violent tornadoes out of supercells which weren't exactly classic in structure. I imagine the same could happen tomorrow, even if storm mode becomes a bit messy. This, of course, will be disappointing to chasers like myself hoping for maximum visibility, as well as making things more dangerous for residents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 300MB's are not that good in KS, better get south tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If I were choosing a chase target tomorrow I'd probably sit on the dryline west of Wichita, probably towards Medicine Lodge. One thing I really love about that area (besides the 10+ 3km EHI lol) is it's forecast to be on the northern edge of a VERY impressive low-level theta-e axis. (I posted a NAM theta-e forecast a few pages back.) Very strong wind fields from H7 down to the surface are there as well, providing obscene 3km SRH over 500m2/s2 on the latest NAM. There's also a little 60kt+ streak at H5 over that location. All that factored in with cape that will no doubt end up north of 4000j/kg should yield very powerful supercells in that area. If the NAM's forecast tonight ends up verifying I would be somewhat shocked if a strong tornado or two didn't materialize somewhere in south-central Kansas. Wichita sits just to the east of this area, so that puts them in a very bad location unfortunately. Hopefully if there are strong tornadoes (or any tornado for that matter) they avoid Wichita among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 GFS has LI of -15 to a max of -16 along I-35 in OK at 00Z. The scale on Twisterdata maxes at -15. Someone on another forum noted EHI's of 17 on the GFS. That'll be fun XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 going be a record number of chasers tomorrow...most ever. Worst I have seen was 5/19 last year and in northwest MO on 6/7/09. I hate to say it but one of these days, chasers are going be stuck in traffic and a tornado is going to hit them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 going be a record number of chasers tomorrow...most ever. Worst I have seen was 5/19 last year and in northwest MO on 6/7/09. I hate to say it but one of these days, chasers are going be stuck in traffic and a tornado is going to hit them. Not that my opinion means much, but I think we have too many storm chasers looking for the perfect tornado shot, and not enough chasers doing immediate aftermath coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 going be a record number of chasers tomorrow...most ever. Worst I have seen was 5/19 last year and in northwest MO on 6/7/09. I hate to say it but one of these days, chasers are going be stuck in traffic and a tornado is going to hit them. The problem with 5/19 is that it was so ridiculously obvious where storms were going to form because of the left over OFB from the night before. Had chasers lined up for miles because everyone and their dog could see what was going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 The problem with 5/19 is that it was so ridiculously obvious where storms were going to form because of the left over OFB from the night before. Had chasers lined up for miles because everyone and their dog could see what was going to happen. Tomorrow will still be worse IMO. There are more and more chasers each year and its getting out of hand really. Thats another debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I see from other chat logs, quite of few of the chasers are going to line up along that dry line in W. OK to W. KS area and trail it through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 So I guess tomorrow is kind of an intense day for my first ever storm chase, huh? Here's to hoping densely populated areas are spared tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Convection has rapidly dissipated across central OK. Doesn't appear there will be any morning convection that will disturb the risk area. One of those days that I've got a couple of action plans if needed. Have a wife and 2-year old to take care of. Hopefully the plans don't have to be put into action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Agreed with most posters that the big threat will extend into OK tomorrow. The SREF is starting to catch on as well...it's extended its sig-tor ingredients probabilities further south for several guidance suites now. Just an explosion of 0-1km helicity post 2100z on the SREF mean tomorrow..it gets even more widespread past this frame, but I figured this was the best way to illustrate what's going on...juxtaposed with over 4000 joules of MLCAPE on short range guidance soundings tonight. SREF MLCAPE at 2100z link is below..followed by 0-1km helicity values at 03z Wednesday...over 250 m2/s2 in a rather broad area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2011052321/SREF_mlcape_MEDIAN_MXMN__f024.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Going to try and chase if I can fix my house's air conditioner in time. I was geared up last night and watched the convection spread out and choke itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.