Fred Gossage Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I know there was 1 that day that had >95/>95. That was the first Alabama watch.... and to answer iowa's query... there was a 45% hatched tornado risk on the 1630Z Day 1 that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 So when do the new models come out? Who is most in the Bullseye? OKC/TUL/Wichita?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 So when do the new models come out? Who is most in the Bullseye? OKC/TUL/Wichita?? All three are likely equally in the bullseye, but if I had to choose one, I'd say OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 So when do the new models come out? Who is most in the Bullseye? OKC/TUL/Wichita?? We're at the point now where the only important models, really, are the RUC and HRRR... and those are run hourly. It's time for surface/upper air observations, profiler data, radar, and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 All I want today is to not see any debris balls on radar and I will be happy. Would have to expect luck will change for the better as some point and either this is a bit of a bust or at least the metros get missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 OKC just went up in a Tornado Watch...I'm sure Tulsa will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Ehhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yep, and it's already up to 300 in northern OK. I'm assuming the higher it goes the higher likelihood of tornadoes? Also what does 40% hatched mean vs the 90 for Alabama in April? Thanks as I'm trying to keep up with the terms used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I'm assuming the higher it goes the higher likelihood of tornadoes? Also what does 40% hatched mean vs the 90 for Alabama in April? Thanks as I'm trying to keep up with the terms used. We were talking about the watch probabilities for tornadoes/strong tornadoes, which were 95%/95% for 4/27 in AL vs. 95%/70% here. The other probability that is being discussed is the Outlook tornado probability, which rarely exceeds 30%. This year it has twice, in AL (45%), and today (45%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Does anyone ever put any faith in these TORCON values from TWC? They have Wichita/SC KS at a 9. Forbes does have a PhD. That said, because it is a 50 mile radius, or four times the area, divide the TorCon by 4 and see how closely the numbers match the SPCs. Obviously, if SPC is above 25%, a direct conversion to TorCon would be 10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Initiation trying to occur near Elk City, OK and south of Altus, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Near Aspermont, TX to Altus, OK looks primed now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 KOUN Special 18Z Sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Forbes does have a PhD. That said, because it is a 50 mile radius, or four times the area, divide the TorCon by 4 and see how closely the numbers match the SPCs. Obviously, if SPC is above 25%, a direct conversion to TorCon would be 10/10. Oh ok, well can you list the SPC numbers for various cities? Like OKC,Tulsa, Wichita, Ponca City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Cumulus along the dryline are starting to intensify. Should see them break the cap within the next couple hours (maybe sooner...). A supercell has already formed in KS, likely forced from upward motion in the low itself. Plenty of hail with that one based on reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Oh ok, well can you list the SPC numbers for various cities? Like OKC,Tulsa, Wichita, Ponca City? Find yourself on the map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Forbes does have a PhD. That said, because it is a 50 mile radius, or four times the area, divide the TorCon by 4 and see how closely the numbers match the SPCs. Obviously, if SPC is above 25%, a direct conversion to TorCon would be 10/10. Grades aren't everything. Joe Bastardi graduated with a 2.3 and he did alright I'd say. With that being said Forbes has a couple 9's up in Kansas and Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Radar seems to indicate that the first cells are already going up in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Cumulus along the dryline are starting to intensify. Should see them break the cap within the next couple hours (maybe sooner...). A supercell has already formed in KS, likely forced from upward motion in the low itself. Plenty of hail with that one based on reflectivity. couplet and hook signiature developing on radar now, tornado warning coming shortly I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Radar seems to indicate that the first cells are already going up in OK. game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 couplet and hook signiature developing on radar now, tornado warning coming shortly I would think Hail to t he size of tennis balls in that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Initiation south and north of Altus, OK. These would track right into the OKC Metro, as they are moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Initiation south and north of Altus, OK. These would track right into the OKC Metro, as they are moving NE. looks more north of ne so far, but it's super early... we have time to predict OKC's doom yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 looks more north of ne so far, but it's super early... we have time to predict OKC's doom yet. Ah, yea your right, they'll move to the west of the Metro, unless they turn right. Cell just popped up near I-40 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Ah, yea your right, they'll move to the west of the Metro, unless they turn right. Cell just popped up near I-40 also. the i-40 one is organizing very quickly.. tops shooting up big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 203 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT * AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUTLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS... WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH... * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ARAPAHO...BUTLER...CENTRAL FOSS RESERVOIR...CUSTER CITY...EXTREME WESTERN CANTON LAKE...HUCMAC... OAKWOOD...PUTNAM...SEILING...STAFFORD AND TALOGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Yes, these OK cells along the dryline are certainly starting to explode very rapidly as they move north/ne at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 the i-40 one is organizing very quickly.. tops shooting up big time Already showing rotation on the higher tilts as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 hey guys, there are cells in OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Cells firing in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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