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May 24 Plains/MW Severe Threat


Helicity

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So when do the new models come out? Who is most in the Bullseye? OKC/TUL/Wichita??

We're at the point now where the only important models, really, are the RUC and HRRR... and those are run hourly. It's time for surface/upper air observations, profiler data, radar, and satellite.

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I'm assuming the higher it goes the higher likelihood of tornadoes? Also what does 40% hatched mean vs the 90 for Alabama in April? Thanks as I'm trying to keep up with the terms used.

We were talking about the watch probabilities for tornadoes/strong tornadoes, which were 95%/95% for 4/27 in AL vs. 95%/70% here.

The other probability that is being discussed is the Outlook tornado probability, which rarely exceeds 30%. This year it has twice, in AL (45%), and today (45%).

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Does anyone ever put any faith in these TORCON values from TWC? They have Wichita/SC KS at a 9.

Forbes does have a PhD.

That said, because it is a 50 mile radius, or four times the area, divide the TorCon by 4 and see how closely the numbers match the SPCs.

Obviously, if SPC is above 25%, a direct conversion to TorCon would be 10/10.

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Forbes does have a PhD.

That said, because it is a 50 mile radius, or four times the area, divide the TorCon by 4 and see how closely the numbers match the SPCs.

Obviously, if SPC is above 25%, a direct conversion to TorCon would be 10/10.

Oh ok, well can you list the SPC numbers for various cities? Like OKC,Tulsa, Wichita, Ponca City?

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Cumulus along the dryline are starting to intensify. Should see them break the cap within the next couple hours (maybe sooner...).

A supercell has already formed in KS, likely forced from upward motion in the low itself. Plenty of hail with that one based on reflectivity.

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Forbes does have a PhD.

That said, because it is a 50 mile radius, or four times the area, divide the TorCon by 4 and see how closely the numbers match the SPCs.

Obviously, if SPC is above 25%, a direct conversion to TorCon would be 10/10.

Grades aren't everything. Joe Bastardi graduated with a 2.3 and he did alright I'd say. With that being said Forbes has a couple 9's up in Kansas and Oklahoma

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Cumulus along the dryline are starting to intensify. Should see them break the cap within the next couple hours (maybe sooner...).

A supercell has already formed in KS, likely forced from upward motion in the low itself. Plenty of hail with that one based on reflectivity.

couplet and hook signiature developing on radar now, tornado warning coming shortly I would think

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Initiation south and north of Altus, OK. These would track right into the OKC Metro, as they are moving NE.

looks more north of ne so far, but it's super early... we have time to predict OKC's doom yet.

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Ah, yea your right, they'll move to the west of the Metro, unless they turn right. Cell just popped up near I-40 also.

the i-40 one is organizing very quickly.. tops shooting up big time
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

203 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUTLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35

MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ARAPAHO...BUTLER...CENTRAL FOSS

RESERVOIR...CUSTER CITY...EXTREME WESTERN CANTON LAKE...HUCMAC...

OAKWOOD...PUTNAM...SEILING...STAFFORD AND TALOGA.

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