earthlight Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 I would like to get some good thunderstorm chances around that time period along with little bit of heat that would fuel it. With a back door front and with a trough hanging in that would ruin everything bring a crappy pattern for us where it would cool damp 60's for us and possibly even a Noreaster I am fearing. There is no back door front on the GFS by the time frame we are discussing for the potential return to warm/heat and well above average departures. 850 temperatures are above 20 C. Regardless of what happens through 84 hours most models are building a big ridge and have a nice signal for near or greater than 20 C 850 temps which would lead to surface temperatures in the 90's. Regarding severe weather, yes, this is a very nice setup. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 There is no back door front on the GFS by the time frame we are discussing for the potential return to warm/heat and well above average departures. 850 temperatures are above 20 C. Regardless of what happens through 84 hours most models are building a big ridge and have a nice signal for near or greater than 20 C 850 temps which would lead to surface temperatures in the 90's. Regarding severe weather, yes, this is a very nice setup. http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_0z/f162.gif I see a huge difference in the short range between what the GFS and NAM says in the 84 hour period. The GFS has the warm front coming with incoming ridge and the heat while the NAM has trough which send the back door front and sends the cool air into the area in the Sunday-Monday period. The 12z Euro has the back up with the GFS. I think the NAM has its typical trough bias right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 GFS MOS has 90 at KEWR on Saturday, 88 at KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 GFS MOS is also warm for today (Fri)..but much warmer Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 It is a bit cooler on Monday with an onshore flow and it does look like some kind weak cold front will come in on Sunday but it looks to warm up on Tuesday where it will be back in the 80's and it looks like a warming trend from there where it will get more warm and humid from Tuesday and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 18z gfs waits until after day 10 for the jetstream to lift north and for a +NAO to take over. This allows a more permanent monster ridge to engulf most of the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 GFS and Euro don't bring any real heat until after day 6-7. And accuracy in that range needs to be watched. A cutoff, tropical or any low pressure can change that.. Before that, temps look a little above normal on some days and average to below average on others. By the time the heat ridge hits, we are pushing into July and average temps are almost in the mid 80's by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I am thinking high end slight risk days from Wednesday thru Friday for boomers. Isolated significant severe with jet placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Well the deer have eaten a few plants in the past week, so that may be the missing chunk. Most of the garden's doing great, however, except for a few random things that weren't inside the big protective fence. I've probably harvested close to a pound of arugula/baby spinach/chard/lettuce as a salad mix in the last week, which has been absolutely delicious. I have one Japanese eggplant almost ready to eat, and dozens of tomatoes on the vines. Zucchini looks as if it's about to flower as well, and even the melons are doing OK. A warm spell next week would be great news for my veggies. BRING IT ON! Still 70.1/60 right now, mild night after a balmy high temperature of 83.9F. I'm using the Tarrytown station which runs a bit warmer since Wunderground's closer station is down, but I figure it's still a decent approximation. I work in Tarrytown so spend 1/3 of the day there anyway. Man the deer ate my plants too. Total horse ****. I planted the tulips so long ago, and the second they came up they ate them. I was so pissed. Not kidding either. You guys need to get some deer repellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 10 day Euro shows not heat for early July...GFS ensembles disagree http://weatherisland.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 As I thought 79 at LGA at 2pm with sunshine. NE winds save the day it feels fantastic out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 As I thought 79 at LGA at 2pm with sunshine. NE winds save the day it feels fantastic out here. Yeah this thread has been quite. Looks like the heat mongers will have to wait until july. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yeah this thread has been quite. Looks like the heat mongers will have to wait until july. June is now only 2.5-2.8 degrees above? Thought I saw that on the news. Only a couple hot days so far. Please keep this going!?!!!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yeah this thread has been quite. Looks like the heat mongers will have to wait until july. As long there is no more 60's I will be happy. The heat with 90+ days could wait for early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 June is now only 2.5-2.8 degrees above? Thought I saw that on the news. Only a couple hot days so far. Please keep this going!?!!!!? Yeah its kind of skewed because of how above avg we were during that heatwave. Def shows how impressive it was. But we will def get heat again, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 This next week looks very warm to hot, with many 85-90 degree days possible. Very summery pattern. No, there won't be any heat waves, but still above average, and will seal the deal on an anomalously warm June for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 This next week looks very warm to hot, with many 85-90 degree days possible. Very summery pattern. No, there won't be any heat waves, but still above average, and will seal the deal on an anomalously warm June for the Northeast. I'm not seeing it, Tom. NWS has 56F for a low tonight, cooler than normal. Tomorrow is 81/59, pretty much a comfortable late June day. Humidity increases later in the week, but my forecast shows 83-84F for every day...that's not particularly warm for the summer solstice, though nights are going to be on the sultry side so AC will be on. 850s get pretty warm by Wednesday but there's cloud cover/showers every day so I don't see it getting to 90F. Yes, of course, June will be warmer than average but nowhere near last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I'm not seeing it, Tom. NWS has 56F for a low tonight, cooler than normal. Tomorrow is 81/59, pretty much a comfortable late June day. Humidity increases later in the week, but my forecast shows 83-84F for every day...that's not particularly warm for the summer solstice, though nights are going to be on the sultry side so AC will be on. 850s get pretty warm by Wednesday but there's cloud cover/showers every day so I don't see it getting to 90F. Yes, of course, June will be warmer than average but nowhere near last year. If it's 84 in White Plains, it will be 88 in Colts Neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Looks to me like near to below normal temps continue into the beginning of July with the flow out of the w-nw around upper low over eastern Canada and Bermuda high struggling to build and losing the battle. This is unusual for this far into June going into July and favors frequent shower and thunderstorm threats some possibly severe. I do not see three H weather on any of the maps at this time. Yes, a few warmer days (mid 80s at best), but no heatwaves here for now and not much beach weather. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I'm not seeing it, Tom. NWS has 56F for a low tonight, cooler than normal. Tomorrow is 81/59, pretty much a comfortable late June day. Humidity increases later in the week, but my forecast shows 83-84F for every day...that's not particularly warm for the summer solstice, though nights are going to be on the sultry side so AC will be on. 850s get pretty warm by Wednesday but there's cloud cover/showers every day so I don't see it getting to 90F. Yes, of course, June will be warmer than average but nowhere near last year. I think most of NJ will be in the mid 80s this week, possible a day or two 85+ if we can get enough sun. Just curious how many 90F days did you record last summer? I had 39, about the same as NYC. I'd imagine you probably have a lot of near miss 87-89 degree days. I agree with wxoutlook that the H-H-H weather will not be on the playing field this week, but disagree on the "not good beach weather." This upcoming week should not feature all day washouts, and temps will be plenty warm with moderate levels of humidity. Then again I guess it depends on your definition of beach weather - we won't have many days with brilliant sun over the next 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Looks like no heatwaves for the rest of June..10 day Euro has below normal temps..however GFS ensembles are still showing above normal temps by July 4th..we shall see http://weatherisland.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 12z NAM has 80-87 degrees today, tomorrow and Wednesday and then shows temps in the upper 60's and low 70's for Thursday as highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 wasnt it supposed to be 100 this week? I thought earthlight and the heat crew were touting this week as a torch, am I a week off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 wasnt it supposed to be 100 this week? I thought earthlight and the heat crew were touting this week as a torch, am I a week off? Lol. Its always a week away. Perhaps he will post the 200 hr dgex. I believe dt said no more heat until july. People bashed him, now the heat crew has run off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 wasnt it supposed to be 100 this week? I thought earthlight and the heat crew were touting this week as a torch, am I a week off? I've still been waiting for my typical spring day for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 12z NAM has 80-87 degrees today, tomorrow and Wednesday and then shows temps in the upper 60's and low 70's for Thursday as highs. I hate 60's for highs for the summer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I think most of NJ will be in the mid 80s this week, possible a day or two 85+ if we can get enough sun. Just curious how many 90F days did you record last summer? I had 39, about the same as NYC. I'd imagine you probably have a lot of near miss 87-89 degree days. I agree with wxoutlook that the H-H-H weather will not be on the playing field this week, but disagree on the "not good beach weather." This upcoming week should not feature all day washouts, and temps will be plenty warm with moderate levels of humidity. Then again I guess it depends on your definition of beach weather - we won't have many days with brilliant sun over the next 5. Mid 80s in New Jersey isn't really "heat" now...average highs are 80F for Central Park and a couple degrees warmer for interior NJ especially as you get towards TTN. Can't remark on the 90F readings...I'll have to look back on Wunderground, as I was in Montana last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I've still been waiting for my typical spring day for the past month. Temps are only 2.5-3 degrees above normal, even after the insane highs on a few days. If Euro is correct, with its lower then average temps, we could only end up a little above average for the month. And could end up pretty close to average, or typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 It's in the upper 70s dry and partly cloudy. Isotherm today is the typical spring day. And we've had many others as well. It's not my fault you and earthlight live next to geothermal vents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 It's in the upper 70s dry and partly cloudy. Isotherm today is the typical spring day. And we've had many others as well. It's not my fault you and earthlight live next to geothermal vents. LGA topped out at 79 so far. So right on normal (average is 80). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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