SACRUS Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Only a matter of time until this airmass gets released towards the north and east..happened twice already. I agree, and expect to see a moderation back towards normal beginning tomrrow/thu and more heat wamrth on/around the 18th into next week. The ecm has been very consistent in this and even though the GFS isn't as warm it's by no means showing a cool pattern overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 Yep..Euro shows possible heat to return next week http://weatherisland.blogspot.com/ It's about time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I agree, and expect to see a moderation back towards normal beginning tomrrow/thu and more heat wamrth on/around the 18th into next week. The ecm has been very consistent in this and even though the GFS isn't as warm it's by no means showing a cool pattern overall. It shows 80's and that would perfect me and will take it anyday over 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 12z euro has an awesome severe weather signal with mcc/mcs activity riding over the top of the ridge axis into the northeast us with plenty of upper air support. my gut tells me the ridge winds up father north though..:and the greater threat for the resulting severe convection will eventually manifest itself over the great lakes and southern new England. that being said i think the ridge will also appear more vigorously as we approach that time frame. both times this year the models have vastly underforecast the h85 temps in the medium range. as the event approaches they begin to grasp the severity of the airmass over the central us and plains and the heat release..and increase the thermal profiles as a result. interesting times ahead and probably warm ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 18z dgex is ballin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 aw yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 22 C 850 temps on Tuesday and WSW surface flow...sounds like upper 90's/100 if it verified as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I agree that this will end up warmer as we get closer. Perhaps a mean severe weather potential at the end of next week, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 I agree that this will end up warmer as we get closer. Perhaps a mean severe weather potential at the end of next week, too. how about the warm fropa this friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 how about the warm fropa this friday Yesterday I was more excited about it. I didn't like the trends today; however, they can easily change tomorrow. It seems like things are speeding up. Either way, definitely looks like a stormy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 14, 2011 Share Posted June 14, 2011 aw yeah. Awww yuck. Scorching heat in Midtown Manhattan is no fun, even if you're a hot weather freak/warminista. It's not fun to literally drown in sweat after 10 seconds and walk through a hazy sauna barely able to breathe. Last week was brutal in that department. Give me upper 70s/low 80s anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 06z GFS was nice. Not a long bout of heat--but not bad. 850 temps were 18-20c Tuesday and 20+ C Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 As long as it no 60's I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 The GFS is indicative of a very warm pattern through the end of the run and the long term..we get a bout of warmer (90's) temps next week as the ridge builds...a quick trough comes through and then the entire pattern amplifies as 588 heights head north of us into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 this affects our heat EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA... PREFERENCE: 00Z/15 ECMWF THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER WRN STATES/CANADA IS HANDLED RATHER WELL OVERALL BY THE GUIDANCE. ITEMS CONCERNING THE 500 MB LOW CENTER AND DEPTH OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST DIVERGE SOME ON D3/SAT AND MUCH OF THIS IS FROM THE HANDLING OF SHORT WAVE DETAILS. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST THREE DIFFERENT SHORT WAVES THAT ROUND THE BASE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND EJECT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. THIS ENERGY IS MAINLY ORIGINATING FROM THE NERN PAC AND DROPPING DOWN THE EDGE OF THE PAC UPPER RIDGE INTO THIS TROUGH. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE STARTING OFF IMMEDIATELY OVER ERN WA/NRN ID/NWRN MT WILL SPLIT WITH SOME DYNAMICS THROUGH CENTRAL MT ON THURS AND THE BULK OF ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERIOR NW. ITS THIS FEATURE... WHICH IS THE MOST DYNAMIC AND POTENT... THAT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EJECT OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FOR FRI AND HAS THE MOST DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST OVER-DEVELOPED/POTENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO ALLOW ENERGY OUT AHEAD FROM THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK VORT OVER THE DAKOTAS. IN BOTH INSTANCES THESE ISSUES IMPACT THE EVENTUAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND SPECIFICALLY THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER FOR FRI INTO SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH THIS ENTIRE FEATURE. THEN ON SAT... NO REAL CERTAIN IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE GRT BASIN INTO THE PLAINS... JUST REAL UNORGANIZED DYNAMICS AND UPSTREAM... ADDITIONAL UPPER DYNAMICS WILL DIG TOWARD THE PAC NW. OVERALL HPC WILL RECOMMEND THE OPERATIONAL 00Z/15 ECMWF AND SEE IF THE 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW SUIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 This looks good http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f144.gif And then the vast majority of ensemble members have a tremendous heat release in a week or two. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f300.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 The GFS is indicative of a very warm pattern through the end of the run and the long term..we get a bout of warmer (90's) temps next week as the ridge builds...a quick trough comes through and then the entire pattern amplifies as 588 heights head north of us into New England. A lot of terrain covered by the 20C contour on the 12z GFS in the medium-range. Southern Plains ridge is really spreading out the heat with the trough over the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies. Looks like warm temps from Nevada to the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 3 PM roundup: EWR: 84 NYC: 82 LGA: 79 JFK: 83 Fabulous weather. Perfect for both the pool and beach groupies and for people that dont want to not be able to breathe outside in 98 degree heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 3 PM roundup: EWR: 84 NYC: 82 LGA: 79 JFK: 83 Fabulous weather. Perfect for both the pool and beach groupies and for people that dont want to not be able to breathe outside in 98 degree heat. amen to that...I'd take a little warmer for the pool, but not much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 3 PM roundup: EWR: 84 NYC: 82 LGA: 79 JFK: 83 Fabulous weather. Perfect for both the pool and beach groupies and for people that dont want to not be able to breathe outside in 98 degree heat. Weird to see LGA much cooler than the rest. It's that land breeze that keeps JFK on pace with EWR (and ahead of NYC and LGA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 87 at KEWR! Gorgeous day. High was 83.3 here in Monmouth. Low this morning a pleasantly cool 52.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 EWR got up to 88 last hour. +8 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 EWR got up to 88 last hour. +8 for the day. Wow, youre like 5 degrees ahead of everyone else lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 75/56 south wind of the sound, perfection today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Don't feel like writing something long now, but IMO the weekend into next week looks very interesting convection wise for the OH Valley and Northeast. Heat ridge will begin ballooning northeastward Sat/Sun, but with the NWLY flow aloft persisting over New England, we'll likely see some differential advection / MCS activity propagating NW to SE. Then mid next week may be favorable with a sharp mid/upper level short wave trough digging through the Lakes and high dew point air surging up the east coast. Overall not a prolonged heat/dry pattern but more of a warm/humid summery regime taking hold by next week with more elevated dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Similarity to 2008 continues to be striking, in a number of ways. If we follow that progression temp wise, the next 2-3 weeks will generally be summery/humid with highs slightly above average, in the 80-90 degree range, with the next extreme heat release waiting until the mid July time frame. I personally think we'll see a burst of 90s well before mid July, but should be interesting to follow this analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Don't feel like writing something long now, but IMO the weekend into next week looks very interesting convection wise for the OH Valley and Northeast. Heat ridge will begin ballooning northeastward Sat/Sun, but with the NWLY flow aloft persisting over New England, we'll likely see some differential advection / MCS activity propagating NW to SE. Then mid next week may be favorable with a sharp mid/upper level short wave trough digging through the Lakes and high dew point air surging up the east coast. Overall not a prolonged heat/dry pattern but more of a warm/humid summery regime taking hold by next week with more elevated dews. Strongly agree..made a post about this yesterday. I do think the ridge may end up a bit father north though...so the severe threat may manifest itself over new England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Wow, youre like 5 degrees ahead of everyone else lol. This surprises you how? His temps are 5-8 degrees higher in the summer and his snow accumulations are 6-10 inches more in the winter. He lives in a magical place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Newark could hit 100 for all I care as long as the weather here remains as it was today. Low 80s and a nice breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 This surprises you how? His temps are 5-8 degrees higher in the summer and his snow accumulations are 6-10 inches more in the winter. He lives in a magical place. Where did I say anything about my location? I said "Newark hit 88 in the last hour, +8 for the day" Your obnoxious posts have taken away your reading comprehension ability apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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