CooL Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 The days will be getting shorter soon and this will all be a distant memory. june/july/august are just like dec/jan/feb for the winter. we can still get blizzards in feb and we can still reach 100 in august Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 june/july/august are just like dec/jan/feb for the winter. we can still get blizzards in feb and we can still reach 100 in august yes, I'm well aware, see my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 yes, I'm well aware, see my previous post. i saw, there is def some tension between earthlight and zucker lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 i saw, there is def some tension between earthlight and zucker lol no tension, lol..it's an Internet message board and we are talking about the weather. i just thought his post was rather soft and ignorant to the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 i saw, there is def some tension between earthlight and zucker lol I actually hope we stay warm like last summer so we can rock this winter. Just mix in a few weekends/days like this to break it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 no tension, lol..it's an Internet message board and we are talking about the weather. i just thought his post was rather soft and ignorant to the pattern. someone said there is a map that shows a lakes cutter for xmas, at least you didn't post that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 someone said there is a map that shows a lakes cutter for xmas, at least you didn't post that.... LOL, how many times will THAT change between now and then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 LOL, how many times will THAT change between now and then? You know that once the models lock onto a lakes cutter they never change.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 LOL, how many times will THAT change between now and then? as many times as nzucker plants new imported vegetables in his garden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 What DOES the cfs show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 276 hour maps, again? head in sand once again with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 no tension, lol..it's an Internet message board and we are talking about the weather. i just thought his post was rather soft and ignorant to the pattern. I was sort of joking around...the heat wave idea for early June verified well although I don't think the warm spell at the end of May was anything special for those of us from NYC northeast, where it was mostly upper 70s and low 80s following a very cool period, pretty much normal for late May. In this case, the operational models, although of slightly less use in the longer range, aren't as enthused about major heat in the Northeast. There's clearly building heights in the Southern Plains and Southeast, but the blocking over Canada limits how far the ridge can expand to higher latitudes. Here's a look at the 18z GFS 500mb at Day 10, ridging over the Southeast but the block over Canada keeps us cooler: 12z ECM basically agrees, has the 570dm block over NW Canada with slightly above normal values here, but big ridge doesn't make it: I could see some heat coming back with the Niña trying to make a comeback and the NAO neutralizing. Blue coloring indicative of strong trade winds, cooling down the ENSO region and supporting the western trough: Ensemble NAO forecast, going towards positive which may support higher heights in the Northeast and limit troughing over the Maritimes: In summation, I'm divided on the idea of big heat. This week is almost certainly going to average below normal with the cold front tonight and a potential cut-off low later in the week, bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic and potentially as far north as NYC. After that, we may see a period of warmer than normal temperatures, which often happens as a cut-off drifts NE and is replaced by ridging. However, whether the blocking over NW/Central Canada prevents the heat ridge from expanding to this latitude is still in question...the ENSO signal cooling may be a factor that favors heat, but we may have a bit too much high-latitude blocking to verify a heat wave. I'll take a closer look at the MJO later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I was sort of joking around...the heat wave idea for early June verified well although I don't think the warm spell at the end of May was anything special for those of us from NYC northeast, where it was mostly upper 70s and low 80s following a very cool period, pretty much normal for late May. In this case, the operational models, although of slightly less use in the longer range, aren't as enthused about major heat in the Northeast. There's clearly building heights in the Southern Plains and Southeast, but the blocking over Canada limits how far the ridge can expand to higher latitudes. Here's a look at the 18z GFS 500mb at Day 10, ridging over the Southeast but the block over Canada keeps us cooler: 12z ECM basically agrees, has the 570dm block over NW Canada with slightly above normal values here, but big ridge doesn't make it: I could see some heat coming back with the Niña trying to make a comeback and the NAO neutralizing. Blue coloring indicative of strong trade winds, cooling down the ENSO region and supporting the western trough: Ensemble NAO forecast, going towards positive which may support higher heights in the Northeast and limit troughing over the Maritimes: In summation, I'm divided on the idea of big heat. This week is almost certainly going to average below normal with the cold front tonight and a potential cut-off low later in the week, bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic and potentially as far north as NYC. After that, we may see a period of warmer than normal temperatures, which often happens as a cut-off drifts NE and is replaced by ridging. However, whether the blocking over NW/Central Canada prevents the heat ridge from expanding to this latitude is still in question...the ENSO signal cooling may be a factor that favors heat, but we may have a bit too much high-latitude blocking to verify a heat wave. I'll take a closer look at the MJO later. I will take near normal temps with nice days mixed with thunderstorm chances as well. I don't hope we don't get this suppose noreaster like mikehobbyist and the DGEX model is showing for Friday. Either way the ridge will try to return by the end of week with omega block breaking down after this coming week. Whether 90+ degrees will happen or not will be the question. For the next 5 days we will see at or below normal temps due to cut-off lows and this temporary blocking we are in. Saturday or Sunday will be trasition once the cut-off low leaves it will warm up to at least normal and then Sunday NYC could see 80 for the first time in about almost 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 I will take near normal temps with nice days mixed with thunderstorm chances as well. I don't hope we don't get this suppose noreaster like mikehobbyist and the DGEX model is showing for Friday. Either way the ridge will try to return by the end of week with omega block breaking down after this coming week. Whether 90+ degrees will happen or not will be the question. For the next 5 days we will see at or below normal temps due to cut-off lows and this temporary blocking we are in. Saturday or Sunday will be trasition once the cut-off low leaves it will warm up to at least normal and then Sunday NYC could see 80 for the first time in about almost 10 days. As you say, the blocking looks pretty temporary. Since the January 12th Miller B, we've had short spurts of intense -NAO blocking but nothing sustained. Given that ENSO is still leaning towards La Niña, the -PDO is still present, and the Atlantic SST pattern hasn't changed much....I would lean towards the NAO block being short-lived, eventually allowing the trough over the Canadian Maritimes to lift out and bring warmer conditions to the Northeast. We should still see a -EPO style Alaska block, but the short wavelengths in summer mean that this form of high-latitude blocking generally favors cold anomalies in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest more than the Northeast. In the winter, a block over the Yukon or Northwest Territories would mean a very cold pattern here, but summer is a different story as the SE ridge often sets up shop with this regime in June as low pressures cut into Montana/The Dakotas and allow for a warm sector to move into NYC metro and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 june/july/august are just like dec/jan/feb for the winter. we can still get blizzards in feb and we can still reach 100 in august Hell it can still be in the upper 90s in September... as we saw last year lol. We still have a decent chance of 90s through the middle of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 As you say, the blocking looks pretty temporary. Since the January 12th Miller B, we've had short spurts of intense -NAO blocking but nothing sustained. Given that ENSO is still leaning towards La Niña, the -PDO is still present, and the Atlantic SST pattern hasn't changed much....I would lean towards the NAO block being short-lived, eventually allowing the trough over the Canadian Maritimes to lift out and bring warmer conditions to the Northeast. We should still see a -EPO style Alaska block, but the short wavelengths in summer mean that this form of high-latitude blocking generally favors cold anomalies in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest more than the Northeast. In the winter, a block over the Yukon or Northwest Territories would mean a very cold pattern here, but summer is a different story as the SE ridge often sets up shop with this regime in June as low pressures cut into Montana/The Dakotas and allow for a warm sector to move into NYC metro and New England. 00z NAM is giving us a slap on the face for Wednesday is showing lower 60's for highs again with the Cut-Low existing from Tuesday but the 00z GFS is coming out and is showing something different where it will clear up and be more N/NW flow and 70's for most of the area. I have to say the NAM has been right for the last two days and warm front stayed just to the south of NYC and most time the warm front always get hung up just south of NYC. There are lots of times where the NAM has been wrong like I have said the NAM tends to have a cold bias a good part of the time. I will give some example like March 23rd event with thundersleet/snow with give the area 1-3" it has most the area as all snow event with 4-8" and some areas on LI up to a foot. Even after the April Fools storm we were suppose to get which we got brushed by it. NAM had NYC to have 6-8" during the second week of April I will show proof of that. http://www.americanw...thread-part-ii/ This was some old posts. Also the NAM has a pocket of 850 of 3 C over us on Wednesday that is so unreleastic. In fact it has the 850's keeping dropping too and this is mid-June for christ sakes not April. I will give another example during the end of May warmth before when we had that severe weather bust that NAM has strong back door cold front coming through area dropped temps down into the 50's half of the area with dewpoints getting down to the 40's and that never happen before when the real strong dry cold frontal passage came. Tuesday will be the miserable day of the week where highs will only be in the mid to upper 60's for the most of the area including the city with maybe near 70 F for Newark. Friday could be another day that may not get out of the 60's depends if this is cut-off low or just probably hung up front giving us showers and also depends where the low is placed is important too. The warmth return but the NAM hopefully will stop slapping us with 60's everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Long range gfs looks good for hotter wx again, coming around the 20th. We'll see if the euro agrees in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 00z GFS doesn't really show heat for next week but shows that it will be warmer than it will be this week. It looks like 80's next week here. 80's is more ideal for me and way better than having 60's with E/NE flow with clouds and light rain/drizzle but hopefully when this warming trend gets closer the NAM won't ruin and say 60's instead. I would even take 70's and I like more progressive pattern in summertime so we could get some thunderstorm chances as well as some nice days with low humidity mixed with days we need some humidity so we could get our thunderstorm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Last week june 2010, this week june 2009. Oh well you heat lovers will have to wait two weeks for ur next fix. Poor earthlights pool will be empty this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Usually when the models show the 20c line at 850 mb going north of Chicago,the runs over the next several days eventually build the heat into the Northeast as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Yep..Euro shows possible heat to return next week http://weatherisland.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Usually when the models show the 20c line at 850 mb going north of Chicago,the runs over the next several days eventually build the heat into the Northeast as we get closer to the event. 5 day forecast before the last heat wave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Satelitte shows an area of clearing advancing east thru NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 It has cleared out here in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Satelitte shows an area of clearing advancing east thru NJ. It has cleared out here in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 beautiful weather right now. give me 20 more degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Really warm ocean temperatures to start off June.The bouy near the entrance to NY Harbor has been running around 67-68 degrees. During the big warm up last week, the SST bumped up to 73 degrees before falling back. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=44065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 beautiful weather right now. give me 20 more degrees. NAM only gives you 4 more degrees to 77 but I find that hard to believe. Over 80 at Newark, has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Euro brings in the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Only a matter of time until this airmass gets released towards the north and east..happened twice already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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