nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 And the reason I like no rainfall in the summer (well besides the fact it means more heat) is that there are NO BUGS! Being a gardener yourself, I can't imagine you want there to be constant drought during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 First of all, I don't think it's going to be in the 60s for a long stretch, obviously, when the average high at KNYC is 77F. I think it's possible some of the cooler spots may see 1-2 days in the 60s in the next week, with Sunday and Monday being decent candidates as well as if we get a system later in the week as some models are showing. More likely, we'll be in the low-mid 70s Saturday and upper 70s on Sunday; that's how I would forecast it. Both the 12z ECM and 12z GFS show the cold front moving through Sunday night, and some of the nicest early summer days may be Monday and Tuesday....winds turn NW with 850s around 4-5C, which should be good for highs in the lower 70s with ample sunshine. Dewpoints will be low, possibly in the 40s in some areas. Tuesday will be a shade milder but still comfortably brisk with the chance for chilly low temperatures that morning as radiational cooling starts with the NW winds dying off. I don't think we're talking about nasty raw days here at all....just beautiful weather. I'll welcome any rain we get over the weekend considering how dry the lawn and garden have gotten; we need it since the last measurable rainfall for much of the area was May 30th, almost two weeks ago. It should be comfortably mild with temperatures in the 70s, and then we get a couple of breezy late-spring days with ample sun. Great weather for outdoor activities and sleeping alike. I don't want it to be in the 60s all summer, but neither is mid 90s a very attractive outcome. That is more realistic call and yeah I think eastern LI is more likely have a day in the 60's and more Tuesday or Wednesday if an East Winds plays a factor. Hopefully Tomorrow night thunderstorms will happen and not be another bust like week and there is another chance for Saturday night and Sunday with warm front and a cold front Sunday afternoon that will usher the cool dry air for the 3 days. NW winds usual are not as a cool wind doesn't bring as much cool air to the coast in compare to NE or E winds I notice but the radiotional cooling does drop temps off at night where it will be in the 50's in good majority of the area for Monday night and Tuesday night with few upper 40's not out of the question. I will be happy as long we don't get many days with cool damp rainy raw E or NE winds with noreaster like systems with temps during day near 60 F for highs then it is all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Being a gardener yourself, I can't imagine you want there to be constant drought during the summer. LOL I love to water. I actually leave the sprinklers running all day in a great summer like what we had last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 That is more realistic call and yeah I think eastern LI is more likely have a day in the 60's and more Tuesday or Wednesday if an East Winds plays a factor. Hopefully Tomorrow night thunderstorms will happen and not be another bust like week and there is another chance for Saturday night and Sunday with warm front and a cold front Sunday afternoon that will usher the cool dry air for the 3 days. NW winds usual are not as a cool wind doesn't bring as much cool air to the coast in compare to NE or E winds I notice but the radiotional cooling does drop temps off at night where it will be in the 50's in good majority of the area for Monday night and Tuesday night with few upper 40's not out of the question. I will be happy as long we don't get many days with cool damp rainy raw E or NE winds with noreaster like systems with temps during day near 60 F for highs then it is all good. I never called for days in the 60s...I said "it would be interesting if we saw 2 days in the 60s after this heat," commenting on the 12z model runs and the cool temperatures they showed. It wasn't a forecast but was more a commentary on the irony of such a strong cool shot shown by the models following the intense heat. The cold air could certainly modify on the Euro and GFS as we approach the time frame for the event. I think you were taking my post out of context. We will have E/SE winds starting Saturday since there's a high pressure over Southern Quebec moving towards the Maritimes and offshore into the Atlantic Ocean. This could set up a very cool day Saturday with thick overcast and showers, and potentially another chilly day especially on LI for Sunday if the warm front struggles to make it as far north as forecast. There's certainly more potential to stay in the 60s for Long Island over the weekend; as you point out, easterly winds are much more a threat to warmth this time of year than NW winds, especially in the eastern suburbs which are more influenced by Atlantic airmasses than Canadian airmasses during the warm season. That being said, the 12z GFS and 12z ECM do show a powerful cold front Sunday night; these NW winds will be bringing in solid CAA with 850s dropping from 12C to like 4C. As you say, this will have more of an impact on nighttime temperatures becoming anomalously cool than during the day, when the downsloping flow and sunshine will keep most places in the mid-upper 70s anyway. You make a very good point here, with upper 40s certainly being a possibility for most of the outlying northern suburbs like Northern Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, and Orange Counties...as well as in the LI Pine Barrens, where 850s probably won't be as cold but radiational cooling is better. It will be great to have a sharp cold front sweep out this garbage humid airmass on Sunday. In terms of thunderstorms, I think your best bet is Friday. Unfortunately, the best forcing from the cold front may come overnight Thursday into the wee hours of Friday morning, but it's still possible to see some convection during the day. We don't have huge pressure falls or turning, so we'll have to rely on thermodynamics, and the main threats will probably be heavy rain and straight-line winds since we don't have steep enough lapse rates for hail, or enough shear for tornadoes. I think we'll be too stable for a lot of thunderstorms over the weekend with the wind direction being E-SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 High of 96 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 TWC now has 100-101 for everyone. I had a high of 95-96, then the sun started effecting the weather station and it shot up well into the 100's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 TWC now has 100-101 for everyone. I had a high of 95-96, then the sun started effecting the weather station and it shot up well into the 100's. TWC has a high of 100F here for tomorrow, in Westchester. No way that's going to verify. We only hit 92F today with 850s of 21C and favorable WNW downsloping winds. It's not as if 850s or wind directions are going to be that much better tomorrow, could be a couple degrees hotter if it's a bit windier earlier in the day with better mixing, but I doubt we'll tack on nearly 10F more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I never called for days in the 60s...I said "it would be interesting if we saw 2 days in the 60s after this heat," commenting on the 12z model runs and the cool temperatures they showed. It wasn't a forecast but was more a commentary on the irony of such a strong cool shot shown by the models following the intense heat. The cold air could certainly modify on the Euro and GFS as we approach the time frame for the event. I think you were taking my post out of context. We will have E/SE winds starting Saturday since there's a high pressure over Southern Quebec moving towards the Maritimes and offshore into the Atlantic Ocean. This could set up a very cool day Saturday with thick overcast and showers, and potentially another chilly day especially on LI for Sunday if the warm front struggles to make it as far north as forecast. There's certainly more potential to stay in the 60s for Long Island over the weekend; as you point out, easterly winds are much more a threat to warmth this time of year than NW winds, especially in the eastern suburbs which are more influenced by Atlantic airmasses than Canadian airmasses during the warm season. That being said, the 12z GFS and 12z ECM do show a powerful cold front Sunday night; these NW winds will be bringing in solid CAA with 850s dropping from 12C to like 4C. As you say, this will have more of an impact on nighttime temperatures becoming anomalously cool than during the day, when the downsloping flow and sunshine will keep most places in the mid-upper 70s anyway. You make a very good point here, with upper 40s certainly being a possibility for most of the outlying northern suburbs like Northern Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, and Orange Counties...as well as in the LI Pine Barrens, where 850s probably won't be as cold but radiational cooling is better. It will be great to have a sharp cold front sweep out this garbage humid airmass on Sunday. In terms of thunderstorms, I think your best bet is Friday. Unfortunately, the best forcing from the cold front may come overnight Thursday into the wee hours of Friday morning, but it's still possible to see some convection during the day. We don't have huge pressure falls or turning, so we'll have to rely on thermodynamics, and the main threats will probably be heavy rain and straight-line winds since we don't have steep enough lapse rates for hail, or enough shear for tornadoes. I think we'll be too stable for a lot of thunderstorms over the weekend with the wind direction being E-SE. It is also depends on how far the first cold front comes on Thrusday night and Friday. 12z NAM is most aggressive with the front and clearing the entire area where the GFS and the Euro keeps the front close by and Saturday will be the day if there is East winds that knock the temps down for LI especially the Eastern half where on Sunday I believe will get at least into the lower 70's if the winds if more Southernly but more showers and possible thunderstorms that day ahead of the cold front. E winds are the devil when comes to thunderstorms but hopefully if when comes ahead of warm frontal setup sometimes remember the events in 2007 where severe thunderstorms and tornadoes have happen before. Hopefully for Sunday if the area gets screwed again tomorrow night into Friday we could get some heavy rain producing thunderstorms either on the cool or warm side of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 It is also depends on how far the first cold front comes on Thrusday night and Friday. 12z NAM is most aggressive with the front and clearing the entire area where the GFS and the Euro keeps the front close by and Saturday will be the day if there is East winds that knock the temps down for LI especially the Eastern half where on Sunday I believe will get at least into the lower 70's if the winds if more Southernly but more showers and possible thunderstorms that day ahead of the cold front. E winds are the devil when comes to thunderstorms but hopefully if when comes ahead of warm frontal setup sometimes remember the events in 2007 where severe thunderstorms and tornadoes have happen before. Hopefully for Sunday if the area gets screwed again tomorrow night into Friday we could get some heavy rain producing thunderstorms either on the cool or warm side of the front. 18z NAM looks more like the GFS than the 12z NAM did, holding the boundary as a stationary front over the area Saturday. We get occasional showers, cloud cover, and easterly winds Saturday as a result of this boundary. On all the models now, Saturday looks like a cool, gray day. This then lifts north as a warm front Sunday, resulting in heavy rain over NNE and light rain for NYC metro. Looks as if the 18z NAM is also keying in on the sub-tropical feature off the SC coastline on Saturday, which could throw a wrench into forecasts, though it probably won't have too much impact up here. I think Saturday's rains are more stratiform...we could see some convection Sunday but with the persistent E/SE flow and lots of cloud cover, instability isn't going to be that good. I'm not enthusiastic for any severe weather this weekend. Timing is bad Friday, and then we lose the thermodynamics for the Sat/Sun event. We need the rain, though, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Central Park has only reached 100 three times in the month of June going back to 1869 and the earliest was June 26th so if this were to happen it would be quite shocking (my guess is 95-96 tops in the city at least out of the 3 reporting sites). TWC has a high of 100F here for tomorrow, in Westchester. No way that's going to verify. We only hit 92F today with 850s of 21C and favorable WNW downsloping winds. It's not as if 850s or wind directions are going to be that much better tomorrow, could be a couple degrees hotter if it's a bit windier earlier in the day with better mixing, but I doubt we'll tack on nearly 10F more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Central Park has only reached 100 three times in the month of June going back to 1869 and the earliest was June 26th so if this were to happen it would be quite shocking (my guess is 95-96 tops in the city at least out of the 3 reporting sites). EWR could make a run at 100F tomorrow, but that's the only place that will get close. Thursday was always forecasted to be the hottest day but 100F is really pushing it, especially in the northern suburbs. As you say, June just doesn't usually have the right airmass to hit triple digits. We can tack a few degrees onto 850s in July when we get this type of heat ridge...it's more likely the City hits 100F then when 850s are like 24-25C instead of 20C. I think low-mid 90s for here tomorrow, maybe 95-96 at Central Park, 97-98 at Newark probably. NWS has 98F though, so they have also chosen to go warmer than this morning's forecast, which was for 95F I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Made it to 97 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Anyone else dropping back pretty quickly? I'm at 86 now from a high of 95 at 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Central Park has only reached 100 three times in the month of June going back to 1869 and the earliest was June 26th so if this were to happen it would be quite shocking (my guess is 95-96 tops in the city at least out of the 3 reporting sites). I wonder if JFK reached it earlier, because I know they topped 100 in June 1966. 4 100 degree days for JFK that summer, once in June and 3 times in a row in early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Still baking at 95 after a high of 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 According to the NOAA site JFK never hit 100 during the month of June. Highest was 99 on 6/26/49 and on 6/30/64 I wonder if JFK reached it earlier, because I know they topped 100 in June 1966. 4 100 degree days for JFK that summer, once in June and 3 times in a row in early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Still baking at 95 after a high of 98 You got to 98F, that's impressive, 6F warmer than here. Bronxville is a bit more urbanized, however. Still baking here too, jealous of the nice drops. It's 90.1F here, and I'm playing tennis at 8pm so I need a cooldown quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 According to the NOAA site JFK never hit 100 during the month of June. Highest was 99 on 6/26/49 and on 6/30/64 According to wunderground they did in June, but there's a little gap in the data somewhere..... they also got 59" of snow in 60-61 which they don't mention lol. Im shocked JFK data goes back to 1949.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I think EWR hits 100F+ tomorrow. They will be off to warmer start and a stronger westerly downslope flow should cause dews mix out more. I'd also watch for LGA to make a run at 100F too, late in the day. I don't think Central Park, will looking what went on today with temps not rising at during the mid-afternoon hours. Probably 95-97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I think EWR hits 100F+ tomorrow. They will be off to warmer start and a stronger westerly downslope flow should cause dews mix out more. I'd also watch for LGA to make a run at 100F too, late in the day. I don't think Central Park, will looking what went on today with temps not rising at during the mid-afternoon hours. Probably 95-97. Yeah, I mean I think we're all splitting hairs..... on this day in 1999 JFK hit 96. It's silly to think we can't hit 100 in June if our record high for the month is 98,99 whatever lol. We've hit 90s in April.... even early April.... so it's not much of a stretch that the same kind of heat would have us at 100 in June (maybe even May-- in 1996 Islip hit 98 in the middle of May!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 What is up with LGA! They're up to 97! They had their high at 7PM??? I'm 5 miles east of them and I'm reading 86.5, down from a high of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 What is up with LGA! They're up to 97! They had their high at 7PM??? I'm 5 miles east of them and I'm reading 86.5, down from a high of 95. An airplane must have come too close lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 What is up with LGA! They're up to 97! They had their high at 7PM??? I'm 5 miles east of them and I'm reading 86.5, down from a high of 95. Now that's awesome! There winds went from the SE to W the past hour and they jumped 5 degrees.Something to keep in mind for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 Love 7pm highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 JFK is at 78 but I'm at 89 (after a high of 96). This always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 96.1 high here. Still at 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 JFK is at 78 but I'm at 89 (after a high of 96). This always happens. What was JFK's high? I hit 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 JFK is at 78 but I'm at 89 (after a high of 96). This always happens. I think they moved the JFK station to a Buoy on Jamaica Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 I think they moved the JFK station to a Buoy on Jamaica Bay. Well, that would explain their snowfall "totals" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Those storms near albany look quite nasty ...heading right for western Mass. again unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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