June likely to come in with a summer-like scorch

[Thunderdude]

more fantasy land model porn if you want storms tonight

I like that look but don't think that will happen tonight. But it got up to 92 F here on the south shore even and that is impressive. Won't be surprise if this is one of the hottest days of the summer if this is going similar summer to 2008 but I am sure we will see some 90+ days in July though.

[tmagan]

The Ontario squall line is showing signs of weakening.

[JBG]

really already? on June 8th?

that would be pretty lame

That happened in 1962 (late May), 1976 (April), 1969 (May 29), 1979 (early May), 1992 (late May), 1996 (late May), 2000 (early May), 2008 (early June) and 2009 (late April). It's not that uncommon. And I didn't check stats for any of that. There could be many more.

[IsentropicLift]

The Ontario squall line is showing signs of weakening.

thats because the US border patrol is shooting at it lol

I expect it to re-organize once it gets away from the lakes

[snywx]

Topped out at 98.6*

Currently 97.9*

[Sundog]

Dropped 5 degrees over the last 45 minutes. Down to 89.5.

[Thunderdude]

Wow, my dewpoint is in the 70s...must have downsloping effects up there. With 850s around 20C, we could have made a run at upper 90s had we mixed out better in Westchester. Looks as if 91.8F was probably the high here.

For those not enjoying this heat wave, the 12z ECM has a stout cooldown from Sunday-Wednesday with 850s getting down to around 5C. Monday could be particularly chilly if the Euro holds serve, looks like 850s are mid single digits and we may have some remaining clouds/showers from the weekend. Can't see the QPF though for Monday, so just guessing about precipitation/cloud cover. Would be interesting to see a couple days with highs in the 60s after this torch. One thing that's preventing this summer from being oppressive like 2010 is that we seem to be getting pretty strong cold shots interspersed with the heat, just as we had last week with nights dropping into the 40s following the late May warm spell.

Days with highs in the 60's and come on this is not the summer of 2009 where we were in a strong blocking pattern with weak El Nino combine with -NAO where there was so many highs in the 60's in the month of June and a couple in July as well. 2003 was really chilly June as well until the end of the month. It is possible to one day like this past Sunday in the 60's with an East wind and with clouds but I can't see for days in mid to late June. Chances with the Euro model will modified the cool down a bit and more likely it will be highs in the 70's with some upper 60's in the cool spots like on Long Island if there is an East winds will that will temps down with 850s around 6-8C. It is possible to have one nasty cool rainy day with a overrunning warm advection rains that will keep entire area only in the 60's and have a system going to our south and the warm front approaching and then gives a warmer and more humid air mass later in the week again. I don't think the cool shots will be quite as strong as last week. I think you like for a cool raw summer with highs in the 60's every day.

[Sundog]

And LGA went up 2 degrees to 95. Lol wtf

[ag3]

Been worried about the mixing since last night. NAM had 93 F and 22c 850s. Obviously that busted low, but you get the point.

NAM soundings had 96 for EWR today. Todays 12z, 6z and 0z runs had 96-97 for EWR and NYC.

[blizzardof09]

That could definitely be the beginnings of a derecho coming for upstate NY. Looks nasty...

QLCS=one of the worst modern wx acronyms

you think theres a chance of that holding together and hitting our area tonight?

[Thunderdude]

you think theres a chance of that holding together and hitting our area tonight?

I wish but don't think so if it does it will stay to our north. Late tomorrow afternoon and night will be our chance for storms.

[winterwarlock]

96 today....garden variety stuff it did not feel that bad with the humidity, tomorrow will be a different story

[winterwarlock]

Wow, my dewpoint is in the 70s...must have downsloping effects up there. With 850s around 20C, we could have made a run at upper 90s had we mixed out better in Westchester. Looks as if 91.8F was probably the high here.

For those not enjoying this heat wave, the 12z ECM has a stout cooldown from Sunday-Wednesday with 850s getting down to around 5C. Monday could be particularly chilly if the Euro holds serve, looks like 850s are mid single digits and we may have some remaining clouds/showers from the weekend. Can't see the QPF though for Monday, so just guessing about precipitation/cloud cover. Would be interesting to see a couple days with highs in the 60s after this torch. One thing that's preventing this summer from being oppressive like 2010 is that we seem to be getting pretty strong cold shots interspersed with the heat, just as we had last week with nights dropping into the 40s following the late May warm spell.

I see you love to hype cooldowns and be overly dramatic with them. I see extended forecasts for Monday for sun and temps in the 70s to 80 in most of NJ and then mid to upper 70s for the middle of next week which is only a bit below normal, it wont take much to bump those temps up more...just look at last weeks forecast for this week

[HM]

you think theres a chance of that holding together and hitting our area tonight?

I'd say chances are very low in NJ and NYC.

[Sundog]

I see you love to hype cooldowns and be overly dramatic with them. I see extended forecasts for Monday for sun and temps in the 70s to 80 in most of NJ and then mid to upper 70s for the middle of next week which is only a bit below normal, it wont take much to bump those temps up more...just look at last weeks forecast for this week

Exactly look at last week's forecast for this week. They don't up numbers for a warm spell until we get closer to game time, just like they won't forecast 60s for highs until we get much closer (if the euro holds of course.)

[nzucker]

Days with highs in the 60's and come on this is not the summer of 2009 where we were in a strong blocking pattern with weak El Nino combine with -NAO where there was so many highs in the 60's in the month of June and a couple in July as well. 2003 was really chilly June as well until the end of the month. It is possible to one day like this past Sunday in the 60's with an East wind and with clouds but I can't see for days in mid to late June. Chances with the Euro model will modified the cool down a bit and more likely it will be highs in the 70's with some upper 60's in the cool spots like on Long Island if there is an East winds will that will temps down with 850s around 6-8C. It is possible to have one nasty cool rainy day with a overrunning warm advection rains that will keep entire area only in the 60's and have a system going to our south and the warm front approaching and then gives a warmer and more humid air mass later in the week again. I don't think the cool shots will be quite as strong as last week. I think you like for a cool raw summer with highs in the 60's every day.

First of all, I don't think it's going to be in the 60s for a long stretch, obviously, when the average high at KNYC is 77F. I think it's possible some of the cooler spots may see 1-2 days in the 60s in the next week, with Sunday and Monday being decent candidates as well as if we get a system later in the week as some models are showing. More likely, we'll be in the low-mid 70s Saturday and upper 70s on Sunday; that's how I would forecast it. Both the 12z ECM and 12z GFS show the cold front moving through Sunday night, and some of the nicest early summer days may be Monday and Tuesday....winds turn NW with 850s around 4-5C, which should be good for highs in the lower 70s with ample sunshine. Dewpoints will be low, possibly in the 40s in some areas. Tuesday will be a shade milder but still comfortably brisk with the chance for chilly low temperatures that morning as radiational cooling starts with the NW winds dying off.

I don't think we're talking about nasty raw days here at all....just beautiful weather. I'll welcome any rain we get over the weekend considering how dry the lawn and garden have gotten; we need it since the last measurable rainfall for much of the area was May 30th, almost two weeks ago. It should be comfortably mild with temperatures in the 70s, and then we get a couple of breezy late-spring days with ample sun. Great weather for outdoor activities and sleeping alike. I don't want it to be in the 60s all summer, but neither is mid 90s a very attractive outcome.

[earthlight]

99.3 is the high so far here today. Tomorrow looks like the worst day since last summers heat with temperatures near or at 100 and awful dew points.

[A-L-E-X]

First of all, I don't think it's going to be in the 60s for a long stretch, obviously, when the average high at KNYC is 77F. I think it's possible some of the cooler spots may see 1-2 days in the 60s in the next week, with Sunday and Monday being decent candidates as well as if we get a system later in the week as some models are showing. More likely, we'll be in the low-mid 70s Saturday and upper 70s on Sunday; that's how I would forecast it. Both the 12z ECM and 12z GFS show the cold front moving through Sunday night, and some of the nicest early summer days may be Monday and Tuesday....winds turn NW with 850s around 4-5C, which should be good for highs in the lower 70s with ample sunshine. Dewpoints will be low, possibly in the 40s in some areas. Tuesday will be a shade milder but still comfortably brisk with the chance for chilly low temperatures that morning as radiational cooling starts with the NW winds dying off.

I don't think we're talking about nasty raw days here at all....just beautiful weather. I'll welcome any rain we get over the weekend considering how dry the lawn and garden have gotten; we need it since the last measurable rainfall for much of the area was May 30th, almost two weeks ago. It should be comfortably mild with temperatures in the 70s, and then we get a couple of breezy late-spring days with ample sun. Great weather for outdoor activities and sleeping alike. I don't want it to be in the 60s all summer, but neither is mid 90s a very attractive outcome.

It's almost climatologically impossible for it to be that cool around here in the summer unless you have a major volcano eruption in the tropics. I think tomorrow is our best chance to set a new record high around here, somewhere in the mid 90s. I dont like rain in the summer-- that's what sprinklers are for

[Allsnow]

Started at 7am and just finished. Trimmed and cut lawns. It was hot, but it is what we do.

[A-L-E-X]

Oh BTW I don't know what JFK was smoking but I reached 90 today....... 90.7 to be exact. My first 90+ degree day. Hopefully tomorrow will be #2!

[A-L-E-X]

Definitely not enough "mixing out" going on that's for sure. Does anyone remember the heatwaves of 1995? They had considerably higher dewpoints than anything last year.

Agreed and that's why last summer was so much hotter for us at the coast than 1995 was..... the land breeze kept the temperatures higher but the humidity lower. 1995 was more humid than extremely hot here on the south shore. When you guys were 100+ in July we were cooling off into the mid 90s

[NorEaster27]

Oh BTW I don't know what JFK was smoking but I reached 90 today....... 90.7 to be exact. My first 90+ degree day. Hopefully tomorrow will be #2!

91.8 was my high but didn't last for long

[nzucker]

It's almost climatologically impossible for it to be that cool around here in the summer unless you have a major volcano eruption in the tropics. I think tomorrow is our best chance to set a new record high around here, somewhere in the mid 90s. I dont like rain in the summer-- that's what sprinklers are for

Not sure what you're talking about, it can easily be in the upper 60s in June. It's not as if this is mid-July. Central Park's coldest maximums for 6/8 are 56F and 57F, with many days in the lower 60s historically.

There's nothing like a good rain for the garden. I'm watering a lot but would prefer some of the natural stuff.

[A-L-E-X]

well definately for you since you are only at 92 but i bet we see upper 90's multiple times this summer

Agreed upper 90s are just ho hum-- 100+ is historic

[A-L-E-X]

Not sure what you're talking about, it can easily be in the upper 60s in June. It's not as if this is mid-July. Central Park's coldest maximums for 6/8 are 56F and 57F, with many days in the lower 60s historically.

There's nothing like a good rain for the garden. I'm watering a lot but would prefer some of the natural stuff.

No, I was actually agreeing with you that it cant be in the upper 60s for a whole week, every day lol. Even one of our very hottest summers, 1993, had a high in the mid 60s on July 2nd before the real heat set in. You can have an odd day like that here and there in even the hottest summer, but you don't see stuff like that for a whole week every day or longer. Low mid 70s.... much more likely.

[A-L-E-X]

91.8 was my high but didn't last for long

What did they have at JFK-- all afternoon long it looks like they were in the mid 80s. I know their ASOS is literally feet away from the Bay, so it'd be natural for us to be hotter.... I'm over 2 miles from the water (about 13,000 feet to be exact lol.)

[nzucker]

No, I was actually agreeing with you that it cant be in the upper 60s for a whole week, every day lol. Even one of our very hottest summers, 1993, had a high in the mid 60s on July 2nd before the real heat set in. You can have an odd day like that here and there in even the hottest summer, but you don't see stuff like that for a whole week every day or longer. Low mid 70s.... much more likely.

I think some people took my post out of context. I said "Would be interesting to see highs in the 60s for a couple of days after this heat", not "We're going to have highs in the 60s for weeks on end."

I agree...I think low-mid 70s Saturday, upper 70s Sunday with the warm front moving through, and then low 70s for Monday-Tuesday with temperatures starting to warm towards 80 as the week wears on. Doesn't look like any big heat is in the cards, however.

[A-L-E-X]

I think some people took my post out of context. I said "Would be interesting to see highs in the 60s for a couple of days after this heat", not "We're going to have highs in the 60s for weeks on end."

I agree...I think low-mid 70s Saturday, upper 70s Sunday with the warm front moving through, and then low 70s for Monday-Tuesday with temperatures starting to warm towards 80 as the week wears on. Doesn't look like any big heat is in the cards, however.

It would be interesting because I remember July 2,1993 like it was yesterday lol..... it was in the mid 60s (high 66 low 62 or something like that), with a ton of rain and NE winds.... it was a rare midsummer noreaster-type of storm. Never thought we'd go from that to a historic triple digit superheatwave a few days later.

[A-L-E-X]

And the reason I like no rainfall in the summer (well besides the fact it means more heat) is that there are NO BUGS!

[earthlight]

And the reason I like no rainfall in the summer (well besides the fact it means more heat) is that there are NO BUGS!

THIS!!!